NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS61 KBGM 111151 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 651 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will depart the New England coastline with any lingering snow or snow showers ending. Another cold front comes through Tuesday and Wednesday with additional chances for lake effect snow showers. High pressure builds into the region later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
With the sunrise update, added the mention of some drizzle and freezing drizzle till mid morning. Temperatures around freezing expected for the next few hours. Also, given hourly observations and the HRRR soundings show this potential. Previous discussion below.

Still one last period of snow this morning exiting the region where F-Gen forcing is still favorable coupled with the moisture, so some additional accumulations are expected into the mid morning hours. Will leave advisory headlines up for now in terms of winter weather. The flood watch was cancelled given the changeover to snow.

After this last period of snow passes through additional snow showers due to lake effect are likely to form downstream on Lake Ontario resulting in additional light accumulations. The advisory continues here longer with a snow squall or two not out of the question given some instability this afternoon.
Coverage will become more spotty given the amount of mid and upper level dry air moving in. Temperatures look steady in the 30's with the cold air advection as well. Modeled soundings still show the potential for some 25-35 mph gusts to be transported to the surface as well today.

Conditions slowly clear out later today and tonight coupled with a decrease in winds as the surface low moves further away from the region. A few locations that see the most clearing and have a more pronounced snow cover should end up several degrees cooler than the national model blend overnight for lows with values generally in the 20's. A return to southwest flow ahead of the next cold front Tuesday with the potential for some sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
310 AM FORECAST...

A cold front pushes south through the area Tuesday night, bringing NW flow and cold air back into the region. Limited moisture will bring some light snow to cny Tuesday night. A weak band off of Lake Erie will form late as 850mb temps drop to -10 to -15C. This will extend into CNY behind the front. A lake effect band of snow off of Lake Ontario will extend into the Tug Wednesday morning then drop south into Oneida County midday. The current timing has this continuing to drop south into the Syracuse metro for the aftn/eve commute. Snow rates could be an inch an hour. Winds shift to the NNW pushing the band further southwest into the eastern Finger Lakes in the evening. The snow dies during the overnight. An advisory may be needed for the lake effect snow Wednesday into Wednesday evening for the typical counties of Onondaga, Oneida, Madison.
Model soundings show saturation reaching the DGZ so any snow showers should have some nice flakes allowing for at least 1-3 inches of snow to fall over portions of Onondaga, Madison and Oneida county. Duration may be the issue for higher amounts and an advisory. NEPA will be mainly dry and mostly cloudy.

Tuesday night lows will be in the 20s. Wednesday highs in the 30s. Lows Wednesday night mostly in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Thursday there will be increasing sunshine as high pressure starts to build in with drier air. Highs mostly in the 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
310 AM update...

A large area of high pressure over the mid Atlantic states will be in control across the area through this period. Consistent westerly flow ebbing between WNW and WSW will advect in a much warmer airmass from the central US for the end of the week through the weekend. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with highs mostly in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Lingering low ceilings with drizzle and freezing drizzle at KITH KRME and KBGM should slowly lift out by mid morning to MVFR. Conditons will improve gradually throughout the day at all sites but KSYR and KRME where snow showers linger through the day. Gusty winds of around 20 knots through most of the day as well. Winds decrease tonight, outside chance of MVFR ceilings reforming at the NY terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ038.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009- 018-036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ017-025-055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ044-045-056-062.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ046- 057.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,