Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Binghamton, NY

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:58PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 12:14 PM EDT (16:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 9:57AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Binghamton, NY
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location: 42.11, -75.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 201522
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1122 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure briefly slides through the region today, with
fair conditions other than early morning valley fog. However,
a system will affect the region tonight into especially
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. A
cold front will pass Thursday with scattered showers, which
will usher in quiet and cooler conditions through the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 1120 am... Forecast remains on-track and no changes are
needed at this time.

400 am update...

main concern is for potential strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday, which may also include locally heavy rainfall.

Before we get to busier weather, today will actually be a fairly
quiet day as high pressure skims through the area. It is
drifting overhead this morning, with light to calm wind along
with mostly clear sky. This good radiational cooling set up
along with moisture of our recent wet pattern is producing
fog in typical valleys of the twin tiers to western catskills,
with fingers of it sneaking up towards cortland cooperstown and
hamilton as well as southern tips of the finger lakes.

After the fog burns off this morning, a mostly sunny is expected
with highs mainly in the 80s. However, light southwesterly
return flow will get going on the backside of the departing
high, allowing increasing moisture to start edging into the area
late today through this evening. A few showers or an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in parts of northeast pa to
perhaps the central southern tier of ny this evening.

Flow aloft also skews southwesterly tonight, with small
ripples shortwaves embedded within. Moisture will continue to
creep up, along with a bit of instability aloft. This will
contribute to a small yet increasing chance of showers and
embedded thunder overnight with lows mostly mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday appears to be an active yet complicated day. The
biggest question will be how much surface heating can be
realized, because there will be multiple waves moving through
the region. That being said, there are several other factors
nudging in the direction severe weather potential. An elevated
mixed layer will advect into the region aloft, presenting decent
mid level lapse rates along with upper level divergence. Thus,
convection will not be entirely reliant on surface-based
heating. At least modest deep layer shear of 25-35 knots is also
apparent in the models, with 0-1 km helicity also increasing
with time to above 100 m2 s2 especially east of interstate 81.

Weak yet existent 500mb height falls could also help a bit with
initiation, and meanwhile precipitable water values of 1.6-1.9
inches is likely; though the models vary on this. The end
result is an expectation for clusters of convection over the
region, including mesoscale to storm scale interactions.

This will not be like a squall along a boundary with well-
advertised timing; at this point it is difficult to determine
timing and locations. But after morning showers and embedded
thunder, the environment will indeed become more supportive of
strong to severe cells in the afternoon with damaging winds,
some hail, and perhaps even rotation a few supercells for an
isolated tornado threat. There could also be localized urban
and small stream flooding issues where cell interactions and
overlaps prolong downpours. Surface heating will ultimately
be the biggest determining factor for the actual coverage of
the storms, but at least scattered convection can be expected.

The storm prediction center thus includes most of the area in a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Wednesday.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
There will likely be showers and thunderstorms around the region
Wednesday evening as a surface front progresses from west to east
across the area. Highest pops look to be from about i-81 east in the
evening. A few storms could still be strong into the early evening
hours, see the above near term section for more details on this
potential. Overnight, the area could still see some isolated shower
or thunderstorm activity but winds turn west-northwest toward
daybreak ushering in a more stable air mass. Upper level trough
remains over the region through the day Thursday, but drier air
moves in on the increasing northwest flow. Current guidance shows a
sharp moisture gradient, with higher dew points and instability
hanging on approximately southeast of delhi to towanda during the
morning... Then nudging even a bit further south later in the
day... Mainly from monticello to scranton. Continued to show a chance
of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in this area. If
current trends hold it should be mainly dry from binghamton north
and west much of the day Thursday. There are some indications that
the surface front may stall or only very slowly drift south Thursday
night as a wave rides along it. This could keep at least a low end
chance for more showers in the forecast across NE pa. However, some
of the guidance, such as the 00z GFS has the front pushing east and
high pressure already building in later Thursday night... So
uncertainty remains for this period.

Wednesday night will be mild and humid with lows well into the 60s,
Thursday will have highs 75-80 for central ny, with low to mid-80s
across NE pa. Turning much cooler Thursday night with lows in the
50s.

Long term Friday through Monday
High pressure and a dry northerly flow build in behind the front for
both Friday and Saturday. The area will be under a large upper level
trough, which slowly pulls east and exits by Saturday. Surface front
will stall well south of the area and continue to be the focus of
showers and storms across far southern pa and the mid-atlantic into
the weekend. Our forecast area will be dry, partly to mostly sunny
with cooler than average temperatures for this period. Expect low
humidity, with highs 68-75 Friday... And 70-78 Saturday. Early fall
like temperatures expected overnight, 45-55 degrees. There will also
be a brisk north-northwest breezy both Friday and Saturday 8-15 mph,
with a few higher gusts possible.

Sunday and Monday: model guidance is in good agreement that an upper
level ridge will build over the region as the surface highs shifts
east into new england. Our area will have a southeast, then
southerly return flow around this high. The dry and mostly
sunny clear weather continues right into Monday. Temperatures and
humidity gradually rise. Look for highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s,
and still comfortable overnight lows in the 50s.

By next Tuesday, upper level ridge remains in place but moisture and
instability continue to increase. This could lead to a chance of
showers and or thunderstorms. Still a good deal of uncertainty.

Temperatures reach back into the 80s for most locations.

Aviation 16z Tuesday through Saturday
Passing high pressure early this morning, with a mostly clear
sky yet also moisture from recent rainfall of the last few
days, allowed dense fog formation overnight for kelm as well as
a fuel alternate ceiling at krme just prior to 12z. These
restrictions will mix out before 14z, leavingVFR conditions
for all terminals through this evening. The small caveat, is a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this evening at kavp.

Overnight tonight, some mist expected in kelm but not as dense
as this morning. Also, a lower fuel alternate required deck will
spread over kavp late tonight and probably briefly to kbgm.

Small chance of showers overnight as well for several terminals,
but not enough confidence to include in tafs. Winds will be
variable to light southwest 5 knots or less today, before
backing south to southeast tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday... Scattered showers and possible brief restrictions as
a cold front passes, otherwiseVFR.

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR, except late night early
morning fog possible at kelm over the weekend.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mpk mdp
short term... Mjm
long term... Dgm mjm
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 99 mi63 min N 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 1019.2 hPa57°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY9 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair73°F61°F66%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGM

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N3SW66W4NW6NW6NW3N4NW3NW3N3NE4N4N4CalmCalmW3CalmCalm3CalmCalmW5
1 day agoS9SW8SW8W5W15
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2 days agoS10S7
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SE4S3SW5SW4S4CalmCalmCalmSE5S3CalmSW3S4SW3S4S7S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.