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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of rain showers through about 2 am, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds to 30 knots veering southwest, then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..West winds around 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 090555 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1255 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Expect periods of rain through Saturday evening, when we could see a transition to a rain snow mix or all snow through Sunday.
Precipitation will be light, with less than one inch of snow accumulation expected through Sunday night. Today will be breezy.
Colder air arrives Sunday and persists into early next week.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Clouds will be on the increase across the area as weak isentropic lift (295K-300K) approaches the region in association with a weak disturbance passing through tonight into early Saturday. While the bulk of any impacts from this feature will reside NW of the area, the NW half or so will be grazed with the best lift (although many areas will still see a period of lift focused in the 6Z to 15Z Sat time frame. Suspect we will end up with patches of lighter rain/drizzle which at this point seems to warrant at most the likely pops (even these possibly overdone). Overall QPF amounts on the order of less than a tenth of an inch are expected (highest NW), although could easily see some locations with only a few hundredths (further east you go). Rain should quickly shift NE away by 15Z, but clouds likely to stick around.

Overnight lows will end up quite mild by December standards, settling in the 40s, with highs Saturday coolest NW as quick shot of slightly warmer air tries to move in SE areas, maybe allowing for a run at 60 degrees (SE of a Portland to Ottawa line).

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Slightly better chances for measurable rainfall occur mainly Saturday evening as northern stream longwave trough dives quickly south but remains progressive, resulting in bulk of much better lift and QPF potential giving SE third or so of the area a glancing blow of a tenth to maybe quarter inch (third inch Lima area?). Will maintain sliver of likely pops in far SE areas with pops likely to taper quickly with NW extent.

Colder air will sweep in in NW areas at the start of the period, but main push of coldest air waits until Sunday with increasing NW flow off the lake increasing cloud cover downstream and bringing a chance for some rain/snow showers. Inversion heights remain AOB 5000 ft and DGZ will reside well above the best lift and moisture warranting no more than slgt chc to chc pops.

Upper level ridge will then build some and become more zonal, bringing an extended period of dry weather with seasonable temps.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A warm front will lift northward through the next few hours, bringing showers south of US 30 northward. As the LLJ begins to saturate the airmass we'll see showers become more widespread, with gusty southwest winds ahead of the approaching cold front that will pass through this morning (at KSBN) into the early afternoon (at KFWA). Precipitation should be fairly light overnight, with more impactful precipitation moving in with the cold front (perhaps lower MVFR/even brief IFR ceilings/5-6SM visibility). Have a lull in precipitation behind the warm front this morning, mainly in the 10-14z time frame, though it's possible KSBN sees more impactful conditions (some of the guidance has 700 ft ceilings with light drizzle in this time period, but left out for now). Most of the guidance keeps heavier precipitation to the northwest tight along the cold front.
Otherwise, LLWS at KSBN as we decouple, with some gusts still up to around 30 knots (LLJ around 50-55 knots). Expect gusts to become more prevalent as the cold front approaches and we get some daytime mixing. Can't rule out a few gusts up to around 35 knots.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.

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