Erie, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erie, PA

June 16, 2024 5:16 AM EDT (09:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM
Moonrise 2:46 PM   Moonset 1:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 341 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024

Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 68 degrees.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 160741 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 341 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A strong upper level ridge will remain in place through this week, resulting in near-record heat across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A prolonged heat wave is expected to begin across the region on Monday and persist through at least Friday. Daily maximum heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are possible with low temperatures not expected to dip below 70 degrees. Although confidence is low on heat indices reaching or exceeding traditional heat warning criteria of 105 degrees, confidence is high in heat indices exceeding 100 for an extended period of time. Therefore, given the prolonged nature and rarity of the upcoming heat wave, have gone ahead and issued an Excessive Heat Watch for the entire area from Monday through Friday.

For today, the upper-level ridge will begin to establish itself as surface high pressure exits east of the area into New England. A dry air mass will remain in place through much of today, so anticipate dew points to mix out quite a bit and perhaps even lower than NBM guidance given high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will feel more like a "dry" heat, albeit still well above-normal temperature wise for this time of the year.

The start of the heatwave will begin on Monday as a surface warm front lifts northeast across the area, pumping in additional low- level moisture which, combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, will result in heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees. Given the anomalously-warm 850mb temperatures, not anticipating much in the way of convection, although can't rule out a few isolated storms. The forcing mechanism for any isolated storms would either be from a lake breeze or the arrival of a weak surface trough from the south.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Models now becoming a little more aggressive with an influx of low/mid level moisture off the boundary layer which is going to translate to some slightly higher POPs for the CWA come Tuesday.
Convection triggers will likely be a combination of strong heating and weak waves in the flow aloft moving south to north into the area. With some coverage of convection and added cloud cover potential, this makes Tuesday a slightly cooler day than Monday, although still hot and humid. A little less low/mid level moisture once again for Wednesday as the upper level high retrogrades back southward into the mid Atlantic and the POPs return to their now weather status for the end of the short term.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
After Thursday, there will be a very gradual cooling trend heading into next weekend, but the temperatures will still be well above normal. Upper ridge will gradually drop southward into the SE CONUS with 500mb heights slowly lowering for the CWA as distance from the center of the upper high increases. The ridge itself will also gradually degrade towards more seasonal type heights. As the flow aloft attempts to go zonal towards the end of the long term, will see a rain chance increase into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with VFR to persist through the TAF period. No precipitation is anticipated through the TAF period with mainly high cirrus overhead.

Winds are generally out of the east early this morning, around 5 knots. Winds will gradually shift towards the southeast later this morning and afternoon, increasing to 5 to 10 knots, then shift towards the south by the end of the TAF period, around 5 knots.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Thursday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible in the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday, but confidence is low.

MARINE
Northeast to east winds today around 10kts with wave heights 1-2ft by this evening will become offshore through midweek less than 10kts, followed by light and variable Thursday and Friday. Wave heights generally a foot or less through this period.

CLIMATE
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018)
06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018)
06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931)
06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016)
06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014- 020>022-089.
PA...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
EREP1 4 mi47 minESE 2.9G4.1
WCRP1 9 mi17 minSSE 1G1.9 56°F
NREP1 18 mi107 minESE 4.1G5.1 56°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi27 minE 1.9G2.9
ASBO1 41 mi17 minE 4.1G5.1
45208 42 mi17 minE 3.9G5.8 62°F 70°F0 ft30.1055°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi17 minSSE 7G8 58°F 30.18
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi47 minSSE 1G2.9


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KERI ERIE INTL/TOM RIDGE FIELD,PA 6 sm25 mincalm10 smClear57°F50°F77%30.16
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KERI
   
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Wind History graph: ERI
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