Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erie, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Main concern for the near term period will be a period of moderate to heavy wet snow across Northwest Ohio later this evening ahead of a warm front, particularly between 6 and 10 PM. The highest snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour will be found in Lucas County where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for storm total accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. In the Advisory areas along the I-75 corridor, snowfall rates of up to 0.75 inch per hour will be more common. The spatial extent of the headlines remains unchanged, though the start time has been pushed back 5 hours from 10 AM to 3 PM as this is when the potential for significant accumulations becomes more likely.

Outside of the headline areas, 1 to 3 inches of wet snow is likely. Snowfall rates may reach 0.5 inch per hour across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight into Sunday morning. Will need to continue to monitor snowfall trends across inland Northwest Pennsylvania as the colder air mass in place may result in higher snow totals closer to 3 or perhaps 4 inches.

Low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves northeast through the Great Lakes on Sunday, with hodographs indicating strong warm air advection behind the warm front, increasing temperatures into the mid to perhaps upper 30s by mid to late Sunday morning. Cooler air will return by Sunday afternoon and evening as a surface trough quickly sweeps east through the area. Winds may gust in the 30 to 35 mph range ahead of the trough later this evening and overnight, increasing to 35 to 40 mph by early Sunday afternoon in the wake of cold air advection. Will likely have another brief period of moderate snow with the trough passage across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday evening which could result in an additional 1 to 2 inches of accumulation.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Main concern for the short term period will be the potential for an area-wide snow late Monday night into Tuesday as a coastal storm takes shape near the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, areas generally along and east of the I-71 corridor have the highest chances (40 to 50%) of seeing at least 4 inches of snow.
Probabilities remain on the lower end (15 to 20%) for 6 inches of snow, but certainly bears monitoring.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A strong cold front will move south though the Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday, ushering in a cold air mass across the region, though recent guidance is suggesting this may be more of a glancing blow as high pressure quickly builds east across the Midwest late Thursday into Friday. Nonetheless, much of the area could see wind chills in the single digits late Thursday night into Friday morning in addition to some high-SLR lake effect snow across the snowbelt behind the front on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/
Aloft, SW'erly flow persists over northern OH and NW PA as ridging exits E'ward and troughing overspreads our region from the west through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a low strengthens as it moves NE'ward from near the KS/MO border to near Georgian Bay from 18Z/Sat to 18Z/Sun. This low track should allow an occluded front to sweep E'ward through our area between ~12Z/Sun and ~18Z/Sun. Weak ridging is expected ahead of and behind the front. Our regional surface winds trend SE'erly to S'erly around 5 to 15 knots ahead of the occluded front. These winds should gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times this evening into early Sun morning. Behind the front, SW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots, gusting up to 25 to 35 knots, are expected through 18Z/Sun.

Widespread ceilings are expected through the TAF period and will trend VFR prior to the arrival of precip associated with the aforementioned low pressure system. In addition, VFR visibility is expected before and after precip. Widespread snow, steady to heavy at times, should overspread our region gradually and generally from west to east between ~20Z/Sat and ~05Z/Sun. Once snow begins, primarily MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected and visibility will vary between MVFR and LIFR. Snow should mix with rain and generally from west to east between ~09Z/Sun and ~14Z/Sun. The rain/snow mix should end from west to east between ~13Z/Sun and ~18Z/Sun. Widespread MVFR ceilings should linger behind the precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR with periodic precip, mainly in the form of snow, are expected Sunday afternoon through this Thursday.

MARINE
Hazardous marine conditions will return to Lake Erie tonight as strong low pressure lifts northeast into the central Great Lakes.
Offshore winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots tonight with southwest winds developing and increasing to 30 to 35+ knots in the open waters of the western basin and both the open waters and nearshore zones east of the Lake Erie islands Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Winds may briefly approach 40 knots in the open waters of the eastern and central basins. Small Craft Advisories have been hoisted ahead of the stronger winds this evening into tonight with Gale Watches in effect Sunday morning into Sunday night (late Sunday afternoon in the western basin). A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from Willowick east to Ripley, NY until 12Z/7 AM this morning, however a Small Craft Advisory for the next round of strong winds will be issued upon these zones upon expiration. Water levels will drop in the western basin of Lake Erie as gales develop on Sunday and a Low Water Advisory will likely be needed in a subsequent update. Northwest winds should diminish pretty quickly Monday morning and winds will gradually become light and shift offshore by Monday afternoon.

Southwest winds to around 5 to 10 knots will likely develop late Monday into Tuesday with northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots anticipated behind weak low pressure Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds will increase in response to an approaching cold front during the day Wednesday and marine headlines will likely be needed at some point Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ006>008- 017-018-027.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ142-143.
Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ144>146.
Gale Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night for LEZ144>146-164>166.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for LEZ147>149-167>169.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for LEZ162-163.