Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:54PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:27 PM EDT (21:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201907190230;;265642 Fzus51 Kcle 181947 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 347 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>149-190230- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 347 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the early overnight, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 78 degrees, off cleveland 62 degrees and off erie 74 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 182029
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
429 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will move east across the area this
evening. A ridge of high pressure will build northeast over the
eastern united states and linger through Saturday night. A cold
front will move south across the area Sunday. High pressure will
build east out of the middle mississippi valley region Tuesday
to the ohio valley by Wednesday.

Near term through Friday night
A potent little upper level shortwave trough will move east
across the local area this afternoon and evening. This feature
has a positive vorticity maximum associated with it along with
a reflection to the surface as a trough of low pressure. The
combination of the weather features will support the line of
storms and will advance them from west to east across the area.

Receiving some good wind gusts with some of the bowing segments.

Locally heavy rain is occurring with the thunderstorms as they
move through the area. Areas in the east took some time to
destabilize due to the extensive cloud cover over that area this
morning. There have been a few cells trying to pop-up over the
east with little success deeper in the ridge and little upper
level support downstream.

The big story is the heat and humidity. Southwest flow will
develop with strong warm air advection and advancing high
dewpoints into the forecast area. Looking at highs tomorrow in
the lower to middle 90s across the area and dewpoints rising
into the lower to middle 70s. This should push heat index values
well above 105; especially in the western portions of the area.

Slightly lower heat index values expected over the eastern half
of the area.

The warm front will lift north across the area tonight and
extend southeast across the northeast snowbelt Friday afternoon.

Another shortwave trough and associated moisture will move
southeast along the warm front by afternoon and evening and will
likely kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms. So,
will introduce a round in the northeast tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Due to instability and being along the warm front,
can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms so will have to
monitor once again.

Friday night will be quite warm and muggy and would not be
surprised some of the cities with high potential for heat
island effects will keep low temperatures in the lower 80s.

Tried to highlight those areas in the grids.

So, all in all, it is going to be hot and muggy.

Stay cool!

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Still hot and muggy on Saturday. Ohio counties will be under the
second day of excessive heat warnings. Northwest pa may be just
under the threshold and keep heat indices under triple digits.

Precip will be hard to come by Saturday with the ridge firmly in
place for much of the day. Saturday night though those chances begin
to increase from north to south as a cold front sinks south from the
central great lakes. Will still have another very warm night with
lows in the mid upper 70s. Sunday's highs will be a step down with
clouds precip around, but still humid. Frontal timing still has some
wiggle room to it, but by Monday, temperatures and humidity will be
back toward seasonal averages.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Much of next week we will be under the influence of an upper trough
and northwest flow. The surface high from the central great lakes
will build to the ohio valley. This will leave us with limited
shower chances. A sharpening of the trough may bring some of those
chances to the area by the Wednesday Thursday time frame.

Temperatures will be seaonable through the period.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continue to move east-
southeast toward the area with some new development out ahead of
the main area. Visibilities will be reduced to a mile or so in
the heavy downpours if the cells pass right over toledo and
findlay with ceilings around 2500 feet in the cb. Not expecting
the rest of the TAF sites being affected by the storms at this
time but will be monitoring for eastward progression. Generally
vfr conditions expected overnight into tomorrow morning. Winds
will be increasing out of the southwest at 10 to 20 knots
tomorrow as gradient begins to tighten up a bit in the warm
southwest flow.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
Friday evening and again Saturday night through Monday.

Marine
Showers thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of the lake this
evening and overnight with complexes in the area. The background
flow will be southwesterly both Friday and Saturday with afternoon
onshore components, but any thunderstorms would disrupt that flow
for a time. Flow by mid late afternoon may be strong enough to be
borderline for a small craft advisory off of erie, but confidence is
not high enough to hoist the advisory. Similar situation for
Saturday. Saturday night a cold front will sink south across the
lake. A secondary trough will cross on Monday night. High pressure
will build across the central lakes early week through mid week. The
north flow on Monday will be strong enough for a least a chop on the
lake.

Climate
It will be hot over the next 3 days but most of the records
will be tough to reach. Here is a list of the record highs
and the warmest minimum temperature today through Saturday.

Location today Friday Saturday
canton akron 96 in 1930 98 in 1930 100 in 1980
79 in 2013 78 in 1930
cleveland 96 in 1878 95 in 1930* 98 in 1930
79 in 1930* 78 in 1926*
erie 94 in 1968 93 in 1946 93 in 1926
77 in 1930 78 in 1987*
mansfield 96 in 1942 100 in 1930 102 in 1930
78 in 1977 79 in 1977
toledo 97 in 1942 102 in 1930 102 in 1930
77 in 1930* 76 in 1934*
youngstown 98 in 1942 98 in 1942 95 in 1991
76 in 1942* 75 in 1977*
* records that may be exceeded

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for ohz009>014-019>023-029>033-038-047.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Saturday for ohz003-
006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.

Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for
oh089.

Pa... Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday for
paz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Lombardy
climate... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi57 min ENE 5.1 G 7
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi87 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 1013.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi36 minNW 710.00 miFair84°F70°F63%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW5Calm3CalmS3CalmS3S3CalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmNW6NE3N4NW7NW7NW6NW4NW7
1 day agoW4NW4S4S5W12
G19
SW6S7S8S10S11S11S9S7S7S9S9SW4S7SW75NW7NW11NW8Calm
2 days ago3CalmCalmSE4S6S8S10S7SE3S5S8S8S6S7S6SW8SW7S8SW8W11SW8S53W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.