Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 4:50PM Thursday December 12, 2019 3:42 AM EST (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:25PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 929 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Thursday...
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers late this evening, then a slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 41 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201912120915;;216521 FZUS51 KCLE 120229 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 929 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ149-120915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 120546 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1246 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure over the region this morning will get pushed south as a cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will reassert itself over the Ohio Valley for Thursday before moving off the East Coast for Friday. A pair of low pressure systems will then surround the region for the weekend, as a low moves through the northwest Great Lakes, eventually merging with a stronger low moves up the East Coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. A westerly low-level flow of cold air should continue directing bands of light lake effect snow in/near the snowbelt of northeast OH and northwest PA before these snow bands dissipate by the predawn hours of Thursday morning. As high pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the west, decreasing low-level moisture, a lowering subsidence inversion, and decreasing lake- induced instability will lead to the eventual demise of this lake effect snow.

Outside the lake effect snow, light snow showers are also moving eastward across interior portions of north-central and northeast OH. Latest RAP data suggest these snow showers are associated with lift along and ahead of a subtle shortwave trough axis. As the shortwave trough axis continues moving eastward, these snow showers are expected to end from west to east through 10 PM this evening. Any additional snow accumulations here in our CWA will likely be less than an inch.

Over and near the snowbelt, skies are expected to remain partly to mostly cloudy through Thursday morning. Lake effect cloud cover over and near the snowbelt should finally exit the area around and especially after daybreak as the low-level flow backs from westerly to southwesterly. However, mid- to upper-level cloud cover associated with isentropic lift should eventually overspread our entire CWA from west to east Thursday morning. Used NBM guidance to update our sky cover forecast to better match observed and expected trends. Also decreased Thursday morning low temperatures by a few degrees for locations outside the snowbelt. 10th percentile low temperature values from all available model guidance were used for this adjustment. Outside of the snowbelt, mainly clear skies, light surface winds, and limited low-level humidity should permit efficient radiational cooling before the aforementioned west-to-east increase in cloud cover. The rest of our near-term forecast remains valid.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION . Heavy lake effect snow over Lake Erie has moved onshore over the past hour or so with winds gusting up to 40 mph. Heavy snow and gusty winds will produce blowing snow and visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less at times. Snow observed elsewhere, near places such as Youngstown, Akron, Canton, and Mansfield is associated with a shortwave trough at 700 mb, which is producing more moisture advection and forcing than predicted by model guidance. Around half an inch or less is expected out of this snow, just enough to put a coating down. Heavy snow is expected to persist through the next few hours especially for Lake, northern Ashtabula and northern Erie. Snow is expected do diminish tonight as moisture decreases as moisture associated with the upper level trough exits the area to our east. Total snow expected through this evening and tonight will be highest across the northeastern part of Erie County, where 3 to 5 inches of snow is expected. Other areas such as Lake, northern Ashtabula, and northern Crawford can expect 1 to 3 inches of snow through tonight.

Sustained west winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots will diminish through the evening and tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures are expected to decrease to the teens tonight and with elevated winds continuing into the evening and early tonight, wind chills could drops into the single digits.

High pressure is expected to move the mid-Atlantic by midday Thursday, with southerly winds developing over the CWA by early afternoon Thursday. This should warm temperatures back to the mid to upper 30s by Thursday afternoon. A weak warm front moves north across the area on Thursday night keeping it from cooling down too much Thursday night. No precipitation is expected on Thursday or Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Friday with low pressure moving east across the lakes as broad high pressure moves east from New England. Over the next 24 hours the low will dissipate as another low develops through the Central Plains. To our east a coastal low will also begin developing along the Mid Atlantic coast. Between these two systems, moisture will begin to increase out of the south late Friday and Friday night affecting the southern and eastern counties. Saturday, the coastal low will continue rapidly deepening as it moves northeast along the New England coast. The low to our west will be absorbed into the coastal circulation with increased moisture and colder air eventually being wrapped into the back side of the low and across the area Saturday night into Sunday. Will have chance pops into the area Friday night for much of the area as the moisture surges north. For now will have the precip type as rain with a possible mix far northwest towards morning as pops increase to likely east. Saturday will continue with likely pops most areas. Saturday night the precip will begin to mix with then change to snow from the west as cooler air moves in. Pops will be focused more across northeast OH and nwrn PA through the overnight. Drier air will move in from the west for Sunday drying out much of the area while lake effect snow persists across northeast OH and nwrn PA. Highs Friday and Saturday in the 40s. Highs Sunday low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The main weather maker for the long term will be low pressure developing out of Texas Monday and moving northeast across the Ohio Valley Monday night and Tuesday. For some, this will be a snow maker and others rain into snow on the back side. At this time, the ECMWF track takes the main low to the New Jersey coast by Tuesday morning while a weak reflection reaching the Pittsburgh area before dissipating. The GFS takes the low across the central lakeshore Tuesday 06z with warm air surging north into the area ahead of the low. At this time, the system is too far out to really nail down details but will have likely pops in place for the event and a mix of precip. Will likely have lake effect develop on the back side of the system Wednesday with 850mb temps dropping to -14 to -18C depending on model but high pressure and dry air will also be building in for again, will not hit too hard. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the mid and upper 30s. Highs Wednesday upper 20s to lower 30s.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. Light lake effect and flurries will continue for the east lakeshore with primarily VFR conditions. A few pockets of MVFR are around as evidenced by the CLE ob with SCT027 and 022 at LNN. Have a brief TEMPO at CLE for this, but ERI hasn't seen this in some time so kept them VFR. Other terminals VFR with clear skies. Winds will be light southwest or near calm for the rest of tonight. Southerly winds around 10 to 12 knots will occur on Thursday as the surface high shift to our east. Will have minor gusts of 20 or 25 knots at CLE/ERI. Have included some LLWS for Thursday night for TOL as the low level jet axis is to their west.

OUTLOOK. Periods of non-VFR Friday night through Sunday morning. Non- VFR possible on Monday.

MARINE. Will continue with headlines unchanged. Water level will begin rising between 4 and 6 pm but at 3pm was still close to the critical mark. Gales not showing up in shorline obs but HRRR 10m winds suggest 30-35 knots sustained over the water through 00Z before dropping off. Expect a small craft advisory to replace the gale. Winds by morning Thursday should turn out of the south at 10 knots or less but increase through the day to around 20 knots in the open waters and points north. Waves will be highest along the north shore. At this time am not anticipating a small craft advisory my may be close northern reaches of the nearshore waters. Winds will remain fairly light from much of friday through saturday. The next chance of small craft headlines will come Saturday night as winds increase out of the wnw behind deep low pressure in northern New England. Expect winds will reach 20 to 25 knots Saturday night and Sunday. Winds and waves will drop back for Sunday night and Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ142>149.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Jaszka/Saunders SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Oudeman MARINE . TK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 9.9
NREP1 18 mi132 min WNW 16 G 20 28°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi42 min W 15 G 18 26°F 1035.8 hPa (+1.9)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi72 min SSW 4.1 G 8 25°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi51 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy21°F12°F71%1036.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW14
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W4SW9SW8W5W7SW8SW11SW10SW9
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2 days agoS14S14S14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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