Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 9:00PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 9:20 PM EDT (01:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 7:09AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 333 Am Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Today..South winds less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 77 degrees, off cleveland 67 degrees, and off erie 74 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:202007071415;;450897 FZUS51 KCLE 070733 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 333 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ149-071415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 080000 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure ridging will persist across the lower Great Lakes through Thursday. An upper trough will move east across Ontario by the end of the week, dragging a cold front southeast across the lower Great Lakes by Friday evening into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Thunderstorm potential has greatly reduced with some showers lingering on the outskirts of our forecast area.

Previous Discussion . Temperatures are quickly rising across the area into the upper 80s to lower 90s with near 70 dew points being advected northeast into the area from SW OH, SE IN. This will result in PWATS of 1.8 to 2.0 inches later this afternoon, coincident with shower and thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to initiate between noon and 2 PM along the northeast lakeshore area where a lake breeze and subtle shortwave will create a convergent zone of lift. The expectation is for this area of showers and thunderstorms to slowly propagate southeastwards towards Youngstown and Akron later this afternoon. Slow cloud layer motions (less than 10 knots), PWATS near 2.0 inches, and moderate MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg will allow for pockets of heavy rain, hinted by the WPC with the marginal risk of excessive rain. The HREF is indicating that the highest potential for heavy rain will be in the vicinity of the Akron/Canton area with 3+ inches of rain possible. Have added an area of heavy rain to highlight the threat for this afternoon. Isolated wet microbursts could also be possible with the strongest storms, though confidence remains lower for this threat.

Wednesday will feature even weaker steering flow across the area with a similar, albeit perhaps a little less moist airmass in place with PWATS around 1.60 inches. Shower and thunderstorm activity on Thursday appears to be less scattered than today, though storms would once again pose a threat for heavy rain and a stronger, isolated downburst. Storms appear to initiate along a lake breeze boundary at a similar time to today, around 1 to 2 PM. Highs on Wednesday will be a degree or two higher than today with heat indices inching closer to the 100 mark though not anticipating a heat advisory at this time.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A progressive upper level trough will move east across the northeastern United States during this forecast period. The upper level trough will slow in forward motion as it reaches the East Coast Friday night. This will keep the local area in upper level troughiness by the end of the period. Surface low pressure will move into central Ontario, Canada by Thursday night forcing a cold front east across the local area Friday. The front will tap into moisture from the southeastern United States and Atlantic coast. The bulk of the moisture will be over the western half of the forecast area Friday morning and then shift east during the afternoon. The front should be over the eastern half of the forecast area by Friday night. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur over the western half of the area with the front with a chance well ahead of the front in the eastern half of the area. The cold front will eventually move into the western portions of Pennsylvania by late Friday night. Air ahead of the front is expected to be on the warm side with warm air advection and highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 70s. After frontal passage, lows Friday night will drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be increasing to the lower 70s pre-frontal air mass. Potential exists for destabilization and threat for strong thunderstorms Friday. So, will have to monitor as we get closer.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Broad upper level troughiness will begin to give way to an upper level ridge that is expected to build east toward the western Great Lakes by Monday night. The ridge will push the upper level trough east of the area and dominate the local region by Tuesday. A surface cold front will just east of the local area will continue to move east of the region Saturday. A post frontal trough will follow the front and weaken by Sunday morning. A swath of moisture associated with the upper level trough and the reflected trough at the surface will advance east over the area Sunday. This feature will keep a threat for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Monday and then shifting east of the area by Tuesday as high pressure ridge at the surface builds into the area. Slight cold air advection will take place during this period under the upper level trough. Temperatures will drop back into the 80s for highs and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. Coverage of thunderstorms have greatly diminished this evening with some lingering showers possible near terminals (except KCLE and KERI) over the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours and through tomorrow morning. Diurnally-forced isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop once again tomorrow afternoon. Brief lower visibilities possible with heavier showers that pass over any terminals. All terminals have a chance at having impacts from showers and thunderstorms though KCLE and KERI have the lowest chance. Winds general expected to be light and variable.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Friday into Saturday as a front crosses the area.

MARINE. Quite variable winds 10 knots or less expected through this forecast period. Expecting waves to be 2 feet or less during the period as well. No wind headlines expected on the lake in the next 5 days other than threats for strong thunderstorms by Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Kahn NEAR TERM . Kahn/Saunders SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi51 min SW 4.1 G 7
45167 6 mi61 min SW 9.7 G 12 81°F 79°F1 ft
NREP1 18 mi111 min W 1.9 G 8 88°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi81 min SW 6 G 8 81°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.3)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi111 min S 4.1 G 8.9 90°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi30 minSW 810.00 miFair82°F64°F55%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3S4S53S5S7S7S6S9S7NW10W8SW5W8S11SW9S9S9SW8
1 day agoSE4CalmCalmS4SE4CalmCalmS4S3S4S3CalmCalmN4NE3NW5N45W7NW5W3W4W4NE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3S3S4CalmSE5S4NW65N6N7NW5N5NW5NW4N4CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.