Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:01PM Friday February 21, 2020 10:43 AM EST (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:22AMMoonset 4:04PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202002210915;;852552 Fzus51 Kcle 210213 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 913 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-210915- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 913 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Overnight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees, off cleveland 34 degrees, and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 211417 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 917 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to move to the southeastern United States today. Mostly quiet weather is expected through the weekend. Another storm system will bring milder weather and widespread rainfall by early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. No changes were needed with the mid morning update.

Previous discussion . Quiet weather and a slow warming trend is in the forecast for the next 2 days. We have cleared out almost all the lake effect clouds except for the northwest Pennsylvania this morning. The trend will continue to clear out for everywhere later today. High pressure is currently near the Mid- Mississippi Valley region this morning and will continue to move towards the southeastern U.S. though Saturday. We will see plenty of sunshine today with temperatures rebounding back to the middle and upper 30s this afternoon. Winds will also increase from the southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Mostly clear or fair skies will continue tonight and Saturday as well as breezy southwesterly winds through Saturday. High temperatures by Saturday afternoon will be back in the middle 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Active and fast moving upper level pattern still in place as we head into the weekend. A series of weak upper level ridges and shortwave troughs will move through the area through this period. However, moisture will be non-existent through Sunday until the next storm system and vigorous upper level shortwave move toward the area. Surface low pressure will move east through central California to the Oklahoma Panhandle and then lift northeast toward the area Sunday into Monday night. The system will tap into some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and begin to spread precipitation in the form of rain or rain/snow mix late Sunday night into Monday night. The overall flow pattern will cause warm air advection to take place across the forecast area through this period as surface high pressure shifts off the East Coast Sunday with return southerly flow into the local area. Looking at lows Saturday night in the 20s warming to the 30s by Sunday night and near 40 by Monday night. Day time highs in the upper 40s Sunday and middle 40s Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Long term models are in very good agreement with the placement and timing of the surface low that appears to bomb out during this forecast period over our local area. A deep digging upper level trough will dive southeast out of Alberta, Canada and will usher in some pretty cold air to the region. A shortwave trough will move northeast across the local area Monday night causing surface low pressure to move northeast through the area as well. The surface low and shortwave trough will slow in forward motion and become caught up under the deep upper level trough. As the trough becomes slightly negatively tilted, surface low pressure begins to intensify over West Virginia and become vertically stacked under the developing upper level low. The low will deepen further as it moves northeast of the area and finally force the Arctic air into the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. Two big questions remain this far out. One is how much warm air gets entrained early in the deepening process from the Atlantic Ocean to keep the precipitation either all rain or a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Wednesday night. The second question is the exact track of the low. Will the surface low favor a more easterly track and development along the close a bit further away from the upper level trough? If a further east track is the case, then the colder air will wrap in a bit quicker Wednesday night and keep precipitation more in the form of snow than rain. As of right now and the projected track, I think the transition from rain to snow will be fairly quick Wednesday night. Winds will be increasing with the low development and then taper off Thursday into Thursday night as the surface low pulls out to the northeast. Temperatures Tuesday will be on the mild side in the upper 40s cooling to the lower 40s Wednesday and upper 20s by Thursday. Lows in the 30s Tuesday night and middle 20s Wednesday night.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. High pressure will be around the region through the TAF period with VFR conditions. The only potential impacts to aviation will be the gusty winds that develop this afternoon through this evening with southwesterly winds 12 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. Some lake effect clouds 3000 feet and above will scattered out by mid morning for CLE and ERI. Mostly fair skies are expected through Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible with widespread snow and/or rain early Monday morning through Tuesday.

MARINE. A small craft advisory will be hoisted for this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon as southwest flow increases today. Highest waves appear they will be initially in the outer portions of the nearshore forecast zones and then build in height closer to shore later tonight. Expecting winds to diminish tomorrow afternoon lowering the threat for the small craft advisory conditions. Western basin should not see small craft advisory waves over the next couple days. Winds will remain southwest through Sunday night and then become northeast by Tuesday and then northwest by Tuesday night as low pressure system moves through the local area.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ145>149.

SYNOPSIS . Griffin NEAR TERM . Griffin/Oudeman SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi56 min WSW 8 G 14
NREP1 18 mi134 min WSW 8 G 13 29°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi44 min SW 19 G 23 26°F 1033.1 hPa (-0.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi74 min W 15 G 19 24°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi53 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F12°F57%1035.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9W7NW8NW7NW8NW6NW8NW7NW7NW10W8NW7NW6W5NW8W6W5W6W4W7S6S7SW7SW8
1 day agoW12
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SW6SW8W7SW7SW7N6NE3CalmS3NW8NW6NW4NW7NW8N6N7
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W11W11
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.