Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:09PM Saturday August 24, 2019 7:44 AM EDT (11:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:24PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201908241415;;122384 Fzus51 Kcle 240741 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 341 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez148-149-241415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 341 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
Today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers early. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 77 degrees, and off erie 77 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 241058
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
658 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered east of lake superior across central
ontario canada will drift eastward and reach new england by
later Sunday. Low pressure will move east north of the lakes and
take a cold front across the local area Tuesday night. High
pressure follows in the wake of that front for Thursday.

Near term through Sunday
Only tweaked the early morning sky coverage based on current
patches of clouds. Weak land breeze did develop, but isn't
overly strong. Will keep the slight chance mention for a few
raindrops. Previous discussion follows.

Lake effect stratocumulus are developing downwind of the lake
primarily across northeast oh NW pa early this morning. Other
than a few sprinkles late last evening, convergence has been
lacking for any precip. Have lowered the chances and reduced the
already narrow coverage of any light shower this morning as
winds on the lake have been uniformly northeast around 15 to 20
knots much of the night. Only with the most recent ob at dkk has
the wind shifted offshore. With the lack of a land breeze have
removed the waterspout mention. Will continue to see the lake
clouds, but as we head toward midday this will transition to an
inland cumulus field before fading toward evening. Flow more
easterly tonight so would expect mostly clear skies.

Temperatures ran a few degrees warmer than guidance yesterday
with this airmass so have gone a few degrees warmer than
guidance for today. This places us in the low mid 70s. Somewhat
cooler tonight with low mid 50s and a few upper 40s possible.

Back to the mid upper 70s for Sunday.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
The first half of the short term forecast period will remain
quiet with an upper ridge over the region and high pressure just
east of the area. Expecting dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures for Sunday into the first half of Monday. The
pattern shift for the week will occur on Monday into Monday
night as an upper trough enters the great lakes region and will
support a surface cold front. Some pre- frontal showers and
thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday, but
the main show will be with the frontal passage on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Have likely pops for the forecast area timed with
the front as the guidance has fairly good agreement on the west
to east progression across the area. While there is some slight
warm air advection ahead of the front on Tuesday, think that
the area will be too worked over with clouds to push
temperatures over the 80 degree mark, so will keep upper 70s
for Tuesday's highs.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
For the most part, the long term forecast period appears dry
and quiet over the region. Some lingering showers are possible
on Wednesday as the cold front departs the region. The
supporting upper trough lifts north on Wednesday and flow
becomes fairly zonal over the region. High pressure nudges in
from the south for Thursday and wobbles slowly eastward on
Friday. From here, there are several solutions from the extended
guidance members with some showing a pattern shift for next
weekend and others keeping quiet weather in place. Will hedge
for Friday with a slight chance pop for now. Temperatures
remain seasonable through the period.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Cool high pressure has spread across the terminals. Sct bknVFR
stratocu deck holds across northeast oh NW pa. Expect fair
weatherVFR cumulus to dot the sky this afternoon, sct to bkn at
times. Continued fair through Saturday night. Northeast winds
around 10 knots, with locally higher around 15 knots near the
lakeshore.

Outlook... NonVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and Tuesday.

Marine
Northeast flow will be present on the lake today and tonight,
as high pressure builds in from the north. Flow has increased on
the lake overnight to 15 to 20 knots, resulting in waves of 4
to 5 feet over much of the central basin, expanding east towards
the pa water. Will expand the small craft advisory and
associated beach hazards statement to the ashtabula oh and erie
pa nearshore waters and land zones through 10 am to account for
the current conditions that will persist through the next
several hours. Expect unfavorable flow to continue for much of
today and will extend the SCA bhs in the central basin until 10
pm.

High pressure wobbles east for Sunday, allowing for light easterly
flow and eventually weak southeast and offshore flow. Winds will
shift around to the south ahead of a cold front on Monday and
increase to 15 to 20 knots. The front will cross the lake on Tuesday
and flow will become light out of the southwest for Tuesday night
and beyond. An SCA may be needed for the frontal passage, but too
early too tell at this time.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz007-
009>012.

Beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for
ohz089.

Pa... Beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for
paz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez148-
149.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez143>147.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Oudeman
short term... Sefcovic
long term... Sefcovic
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Sefcovic


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi57 min SE 2.9 G 4.1
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi45 min E 7 G 8.9 61°F 1024.7 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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N15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi54 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F51°F70%1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5N6N8N7N9N12N9N8N9N7N7NE6NE6Calm--------NE8E4E5E4Calm
1 day agoN8N6N8N6N8N4NE5NW35W7NW8NW6NW9NW9NW6
G15
------------N7--S4
2 days agoS5----SW10SW7W10W11
G18
W9W9W9W8W8SW6S5NW11
G19
----S5--------NE8NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.