Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fleischmanns, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Patchy clouds will continue to gradually dissipate this morning as surface ridging builds in from the south/west and heights aloft rise. With high pressure centered over the central Appalachians, there will still be a decent pressure gradient in place across the Northeast today. So, while not as gusty as Thu, northwest winds will still occasionally gust 15-20 mph in favored areas. The air mass modifies today, so with mostly sunny skies developing, highs should reach well into the 60s in most valley locations, with 50s in the higher terrain.

Tonight into early Sat morning, a fast-moving upper level short wave trough will track SE across southern Quebec into far northern New England in NW flow regime. An associated surface cold front will push southeast across our area. With limited moisture, will continue to mention just 20-30% chance of a few showers over the W. Adirondacks. The rest of the area will remain dry with occasional high/mid level clouds passing through. Lows will be milder due to some cloud cover and a W-SW breeze persisting, ranging from the 40s to lower 50s. Wind gusts of 15-25 mph expected to develop overnight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned cold front will quickly shift east of our area Sat morning. Sunshine should steadily increase due to a very dry air mass building in (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV). With high pressure building east from the Great Lakes, but still west of our area, it will be breezy through the day.
With a dry and well-mixed environment, NW winds will gust 20-30 mph. This will also allow temperatures to reach the mid/upper 60s in lower elevations and even around 70F in the mid Hudson Valley.

High pressure will move east across the area Sat evening, with dry conditions and winds decreasing. However, clouds will increase overnight as a warm front approaches from the west.
Guidance indicating some isentropic lift developing late Sat night, but will take some time to offset dry air mass so will mention mainly 30-40% PoPs prior to daybreak Sun. Prior to clouds moving in, lows could drop to the lower/mid 30s in the higher terrain and upper 30s to around 40F in lower elevations.
Temperatures should become steady late.

Rain looking more likely during the day Sun, as insentropic lift continues and the low levels saturate. The track of the surface cyclone has shifted south in the ensemble guidance compared to previous days, so our area looks to be mostly on the cool (north) side resulting in periods of rain and cool temperatures as it approaches. There is still spread with regards to the track, so will fine-tune forecast once it comes into better focus. Highs may get close to 60F near Poughkeepsie along the track of the cyclone, but most of the area north of there will be stuck in the 50s with even some 40s in the higher terrain making for a rather raw day.

The main surface cyclone is expected to track eastward across the area Sun night, with rain continuing. A dry slot may approach from the south/west late, so rain may start to taper off southwest of Albany prior to daybreak Mon. Lows look to range from the mid 30s in the W. Adirondacks to upper 40s in the Hudson Valley south of Albany. Total rainfall is expected to range from just less than 0.50" across the far southern part of the area to around 1.25" from the Mohawk Valley into the Adirondacks and S. Vermont. This rainfall will be much needed due to dry conditions over the past several weeks.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A potent upper-level trough/cut-off low will be positioned over the region early in the week bringing a period of blustery, cool and unsettled weather. Low pressure from Sunday night will begin to lift to the northeast out of the region. Moist, cyclonic flow in the wake of the low combined with 850 hPa temperatures below zero C will result in lake-effect/enhanced and upslope rain showers each day into midweek. Some snowflakes will likely mix in at times across the higher elevations where some spotty coatings of accumulation cannot be ruled out. The upper trough should begin to depart the area later in the week with gradually improving conditions as high pressure returns.

High temperatures will be in the 40s/50s through the period with Tuesday and Wednesday the cooler days. On Tuesday, some higher terrain areas of the Adirondacks and southern Greens may not get out of the 30s for highs. Lows will fall back into the upper 20s to upper 30s each night.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06z/Sat...Areas of clouds are decreasing in coverage and will continue to do so into the morning hours. Cigs should remain in the VFR range at all sites. If enough clearing occurs at KGFL, some brief fog may develop toward sunrise. Addressed this potential with a one-hour TEMPO from 10z-11z/Fri. There is not enough confidence for fog at the other terminals for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected at all sites during the day Friday into Friday night with just a few fair weather cumulus and some high cirrus.

Wind will vary from light to calm at KGFL/KPOU through the night to westerly at 10 kt or less at KALB/KPSF (gusts at KPSF should diminish shortly). Wind will be west to southwesterly on Friday at around 10 kt with a few higher gusts at times, mainly at KALB/KPSF. Wind will become south to southwesterly Friday evening at 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Columbus Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ001.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ038>041-043- 047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013-014.