Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fleischmanns, NY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- Gusty south winds develop Friday afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected, especially within portions of the Hudson River Valley and higher terrain of western New England.

Discussion:

As of 1245 PM EST, blustery afternoon across much of the region with isolated to scattered showers of rain/snow and snow pellets. West/northwest winds remain somewhat gusty, reaching 25-35 mph particularly within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires. Coverage of showers should gradually decrease from west to east this afternoon as subsidence increases and mid level cold pool shifts east of region. Max temps should reach the mid/upper 40s within most of the Hudson River Valley except lower/mid 50s across the mid Hudson Valley, with only mid/upper 30s across higher elevations.

Narrow ridge of high pressure will translate east across the region tonight, allowing for skies to become mostly clear and winds rapidly decrease after sunset. Min temps should drop into the 20s in most areas, with some upper teens possible across sheltered areas within the southern Adirondacks.

For Friday, high pressure will slide east of the region as low pressure tracks into east central Canada with a trailing cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. Strong low level south/southwest jet translates into the region Friday afternoon, and with strong winds noted just below the inversion, it appears that breezy conditions will develop Friday afternoon with some gusts reaching 30-40 mph by late afternoon, strongest within portions of the Hudson River Valley near and east of the Capital Region extending into SW VT and the Berkshires. Rain showers will also develop from NW to SE for areas mainly north of I-90 late Friday afternoon. Max temps should reach the lower/mid 50s in valley areas and 45-50 across higher terrain.

Most areas should have rain showers Friday night, with greatest coverage/frequency for areas along and north of I-90. Showers should decrease in coverage Saturday morning, however clouds and perhaps some sprinkles could linger into Saturday afternoon, especially across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks.
Low temps Friday night in the mid/upper 30s across higher elevations to the lower/mid 40s in valleys. Highs Saturday reaching 55-60 within valleys and 45-50 across higher elevations, coolest across the SW Adirondacks. Some rain/wet snow showers could arrive across the SW Adirondacks late Saturday night, otherwise partly/mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s across the southern Adirondacks, and mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Message:

- High confidence for below normal temperatures much of next week, with increasing chances for lake effect snow across the southwest Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley.

Deep upper level trough will dig southward into eastern CONUS next week. As the leading edge of this trough tracks east, low pressure is expected to develop over the Ohio Valley and track toward the eastern Great Lakes region. However, there is increasing uncertainty regarding the possibility on secondary low pressure development south of Long Island late Sunday into Monday. Showers should overspread the region Sunday, and depending on secondary low pressure development, could evolve into a steady rain across the region later Sunday or Sunday night along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder given some elevated instability. As colder air infiltrates into the region, rain could mix with/change over to snow for areas mainly north/west of Albany by Monday morning, and perhaps even into the Capital Region and southern CT if low pressure strengthens quickly. We will have to watch these trends over the next couple of days. 13Z NBM probabilistic guidance suggests 24-hour probs for snowfall >1" ending 7 PM Thursday are 10-40% from the Capital Region N & W.

Behind this system, blustery conditions develop for late Monday through Wednesday, along with lake effect snowbands possibly affecting portions of the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley.
Some flurries/snow showers may extend into portions of the Hudson River Valley from Albany northward, and also for upslope areas across the southern Greens and Berkshires. 13Z NBM probabilistic guidance for 72-hour snowfall > 4" ending 7 PM Thursday is 60-80%+ across northern/central Herkimer County and 20-30% across southern Herkimer County and higher terrain in southeast Bennington County. Max temps generally in the 30s across higher elevations and lower/mid 40s within valleys Monday-Thursday, with overnight lows in the teens/20s Tuesday/Wednesday morning, and 20s/30s Thursday morning.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Scattered mix of rain and snow showers continue to move through TAF sites through 22z, but conditions will continue to be VFR as ceilings and visibility have not been observed to be below VFR. Breezy northwesterly winds continue through 22-23z with wind gusts ranging between 20 and 30 knots. Winds decrease after 00z to less than 15 knots and continue to decrease tonight to calm and light and variable winds.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact
Definite RA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.