Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:34PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 11:29 PM PDT (06:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 020315 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 815 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2020

DISCUSSION. The near term forecast, covering through Thursday evening, has been updated to reflect a lingering slight chance to chance of mainly light showers . focused on and near northwest facing slopes in western Oregon. The trend is toward lesser coverage and intensity of showers on Thursday compared to today, but there should be a noticeable increase in coverage of instability showers in the afternoon into the evening (especially in eastern Douglas County) due to the heating of the day and another shortwave trough that is expected to arrive from the northwest.

The update also reflects the latest high resolution models trending toward a forecast of fewer breaks in west side valley low and mid level clouds. That said, despite the lack of completely clear skies, the forecast of cold morning low temperatures on Thursday and again on Friday is still supported by the latest statistical guidance. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued for valley sites in southwest Oregon on Thursday morning, then a similar to very slightly colder morning is still likely on Friday morning.

Brief ridging is expected Friday ahead of a developing low. There is considerable uncertainty in whether precipitation from this system on Friday night through Saturday will be focused upon our area or on the portions of northern California to the west and south of Siskiyou County. Please see the previous discussion below for details of the remainder of the weekly forecast.

AVIATION. For the 02/00Z TAF Cycle . A weak upper level trough has now moved to the east of the area. The associated showers will diminish tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday evening, except for areas of night into morning MVFR cigs with higher terrain obscured, mostly from the Cascades west.

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Wednesday 1 April 2020 . High pressure will build over the waters Thursday, then weaken Friday. Winds may get gusty south of Cape Blanco Thursday afternoon and evening. A front will move onshore Friday night into Saturday. Several more weak systems will follow through Monday, making for generally unsettled showery weather. Winds and seas will likely remain below advisory criteria until Monday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 238 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

DISCUSSION . The latest visible image clearly shows a rotation associated with a shortwave rounding the base of an upper low just north of our forecast area. Showers are on the increase over Douglas County which the high res guidance has been showing the past several hours. Showers will increase in coverage, mainly north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades as time goes on into early this evening. Instability is marginal enough for a few lightning strikes later this afternoon onto this evening in eastern Douglas County and portions of Klamath and Lake County, thus we'll keep a slight chance mention in the forecast.

The shortwave will move southeast through the region tonight and showers will diminish early this evening with dry conditions tonight. The main question will be the amount of clearing, but we think there should be enough breaks in the cloud cover for temperatures to drop fairly quickly after dark and will drop to near or below freezing for several locations west of the Cascades, especially in the valleys. Also near freezing temperatures are possible near and at the coast. Therefore the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for portions of Douglas, Jackson and Josephine Counties. The Frost Advisory still remains in effect. Please see NPW for more details on the areas that will be impacted by the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory.

Another shortwave embedded in the northwest flow is expected to move into the northwest part of the forecast area Thursday afternoon and could be enough to kick off some showers mainly north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades. However QPF amounts will be light and were not expecting any snow concerns.

Friday looks dry, then all signs are pointing towards a cool and unsettled weekend.

Low pressure system is on track to arrive late Friday night into Saturday morning. The operational models are in better agreement with the timing, but there's still some varying solutions with respect to the extent and location of heaviest precipitation. The GFS is more robust in bringing precipitation inland, but the ECMWF and NAM are not too far behind. This will heighten the concern for snowfall during this time period between 3000 and 4000 feet which includes Siskiyou Summit.

The surface low and associated upper trough will move into the area Saturday, although the GFS still shows a faster solution and actually has the upper trough moving out of our area by Saturday evening while the ECMWF and NAM have the upper trough pretty much over our area. Snow levels Saturday are expected to be between 4000 and 4500 feet, but with a stronger early April sun, road snow concerns should be low and most of the time roads will be wet since the heaviest precipitation should remain south and west of these areas.

The upper trough moves east of the area Saturday night, but any break in precipitation will be brief, if at all as another and stronger upper low will be on the heals of the upper trough and will reach the Oregon/California coast early Sunday morning. The forecast will lean towards a continued precipitation. Snow levels are expected to drop down between 2500 and 3000 feet which should provide a window of opportunity for some slick spots during that time period on Interstate 5 over Siskiyou Summit, in the mountains, and across the east side. Once it becomes daylight, the threat for road snow will be diminished and could end up wet most hours. The one piece of good news is that it will help to alleviate the below average snowpack and help to prolong spring run-off in area reservoirs.

The upper low will be a slow mover and will linger around the rest of Sunday through Sunday night, then slowly move south of our area Monday. The GFS is quicker to move the upper low south which is suspect given it could end up getting cutoff from the main flow in which case will be slower to exit. The operational ECMWF solution looks more reasonable and is slower. At any rate, Monday will be a transition day with precipitation generally decreasing from north to south.

After Monday, it should remain dry for most locations Tuesday and Wednesday, however since the ECMWF is slower to move the upper low out of our area, we'll have to be on the lookout for showers wrapping around the upper low in northern California both days. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ021-022. Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ023. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ORZ023. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ORZ024-026. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ024-026.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-376.

DW/JRS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi37 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F19°F81%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKV

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmNW6N7W5N7NW6N5N9N7N45CalmSW4SW5N4N85CalmNW8W7CalmN4W4
1 day agoS15
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2 days agoS10S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.