Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:03PM Friday January 17, 2020 8:30 AM PST (16:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:10AMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 171144 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 344 AM PST Fri Jan 17 2020

SHORT TERM. Light showers are present across western portions of the area with snow levels of around 1000 to 1500 feet elevation early this morning. Models are in good agreement showing showers continuing to spread across much of the area this morning then lingering into the afternoon. Showers will generally be light with localized, brief moderate showers possible from the Cascades west. Snow levels will gradually rise during the day to around 2000 to 2500 feet. Then late this afternoon into this evening, a warm front is forecast to move towards the area and into northern portions of the coast. Models continue to show rain is likely along the coast with this front. Also expect light rain or snow to move into some inland areas, mainly over the coastal mountains and Cascades. The warm front will lift northward late this evening then a cold front will approach overnight and move inland on Saturday. Snow levels will lower to 1500 to 2500 feet for inland areas tonight with higher snow levels along the coast. Then snow levels rise on Saturday as precipitation moves inland.

Today, the main concern is with light snow in showers, especially during the morning. Snow levels are expected to remain around 1000 to 1500 feet elevation this morning, then rise slightly to 2000 to 2500 feet late this morning into this afternoon. Snow accumulations on valley floors are expected to be light with trace to a few tenths of an inch. Lower passes along Interstate 5 north of Grants Pass will see light snow in showers through this morning, changing to rain in showers this afternoon. Across the Southern Oregon Cascades, expect 1-2 inches of snow accumulation today. East of the Cascades around a half inch of snow is expected from Chiloquin to Crescent. During the late afternoon and evening, as the warm front brushes the Southern Oregon coast, expect mainly light precipitation along the coast, coastal mountains, and into portions of the Umpqua and Southern Oregon Cascades. Snow levels of 2000 to 2500 feet are forecast through the evening.

Overnight as a cold front moves towards the coast, expect many inland areas to see a break in precipitation and coastal areas to see continued light rain with snow levels of near 2500 feet, rising to 4000 feet. Snow levels are expected to lower some tonight for inland areas with snow levels down to around 1500 to 2500 feet. However, snow levels are forecast to rise on Saturday as precipitation spreads inland. Inland areas west of the Cascades are expected to see snow levels rise to 2500 to 4000 feet Saturday morning, then to 5000 to 6000 feet Saturday afternoon. East of the Cascades, snow levels may stay down to eastern valley floors much of the day. However, precipitation chances are weaker, except for areas across northern and central Klamath County where light precipitation in likely.

Ahead of these fronts this evening into Saturday, winds will increase with gusty south winds developing along the coast. Of note, strong winds are possible over the coastal headlands, peaking tonight and Saturday morning. Inland, breezy to gusty winds are forecast over the mountains and into the Shasta and southern Rogue Valleys this evening into Saturday. Winds are expected to remain below advisory levels for these inland areas. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected in the southern Rogue Valley and Shasta Valley.

A weak high pressure ridge builds inland Saturday night into early Sunday morning with diminishing chances for precipitation. This ridge will shift eastward and strengthen late Sunday while and upper trough deepens offshore and a front approaches the coast.

AVIATION. For the 17/06Z TAF Cycle . Clearing mid/upper-level clouds will allow for cooling and combined with the snow covered hills around the valleys feeding cold drainage flow, fog and low clouds are likely for KMFR and KRBG. At KLMT, the mid/upper-level clouds have yet to begin clearing. Lower conditions seem plausible at KLMT, but confidence is not good on timing or duration.

Another strong front Saturday morning will bring wind shear concerns to at least the coast, along with another round of showers. This front will be warmer than the last, with snow levels starting around 2000 feet before they rise to or above 4000 feet after the front. -miles

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Thursday 16 Jan 2020 . A series of fronts will likely continue to result in high to very high and steep to very steep seas over the next week.

A cold front has moved onshore. Winds and seas have begun to diminish, but a fresh south swell will accompany high and steep westerly swell dominated seas today.

Seas reach a minimum early Friday, but another very strong front is expected to impact the waters beginning Friday afternoon with strong gales likely Friday evening through mid-day Saturday, and seas peaking at 15 to 20 feet on Saturday. Winds will come up quickly, so have gone straight to a Gale warning a bit early rather than having a short, less than 5 hours, period of small craft advisory prior to the Gale warning. Conditions are forecast to barely improve Saturday evening with continued southerly winds at advisory strength.

Seas will diminish but likely remain high and steep Sunday ahead of the next front on Monday. The active pattern will likely keep seas high and steep into Wednesday. -Sven

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION. /Issued 200 PM PST Thu Jan 16 2020/ Monday-Thursday, January 20th-23rd . The active pattern that we've been in for some time will continue next week, but with some changes. Over the last week or so, most weather systems have been arriving in a cold, but progressive north and northwest flow aloft. But, the flow aloft, while still progressive, will re- orient and become more west-southwesterly next week. Several disturbances of Pacific origin will develop along the eastern extension of a strong west-central Pacific jet (~150kt) that stretches from Japan to north of Hawaii (between about 30 and 40 N latitude). As is often the case at this range, models have been struggling with timing and strength of individual disturbances, so confidence remains lower than usual. However, there are a few things that are more certain. First, snow levels will likely be higher than we've had much of the last couple of weeks. While there will be some fluctuations up and down, snow levels will average 4000-5000 feet, keeping most of the accumulating snow around and above the higher passes.

Next, despite the low confidence in the details, we are expecting a few frontal systems to move in during the period. We have the lowest confidence in the first of these systems on Monday. Most models are showing a weakening frontal system arriving at the coast midday Monday or Monday afternoon. But, there are still some models bringing sub-tropical moisture northward into California in advance of this system. Most guidance keeps this moisture suppressed and well to our south. A blend of the guidance was used for now, however, until a more agreed upon solution is reached. This keeps fairly low precipitation chances across northern California and along the coast, with a modest increase in southerly winds in the usual spots like the Shasta Valley and over the east side.

We have more confidence in a stronger frontal system arriving at the coast late Monday night, then moving onshore Tuesday. This should bring a period of precipitation for most areas along with stronger winds.

Since the flow is so fast across the Pacific, breaks between systems should be relatively short-lived. As such, another Pacific frontal system will probably arrive sometime mid next week. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ356-370-376. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

CC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi37 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast19°F17°F92%1024.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKV

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S6S9SE10SE13SE14S15SW12S11SE7S12W4S6SE5S4S5SE5SE6SE8S5SE9S4S7S4
1 day agoS13S10S11S9S11S11SE7S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.