Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Climax, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 831 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Wind Advisory until noon in northwestern areas and 3 PM in southeastern areas to cover a pop in wind gusts as mixing increases with both solar heating and a passing cold front. 40 knot winds associated with a low level jet will be just 1000 feet off the ground. Gusts to 45 mph expected from the southwest.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

- Chance storms early in the northwest and southeast this aftn

A line of convection extending from far Eastern Upper Peninsula across northern lower and into Wisconsin will continue to trek eastward this morning. The line continues to weaken as the night continues and as it moves eastward. Several factors for the weakening include; lack of daytime heating, which correlates to a more stable atmosphere, and entering a drier airmass. Strong low level winds continue to stream out ahead of the approaching front.
Multiple CAMS, including the HRRR and the HRRR have strong winds, upwards of 50 mph to be possible along the lakeshore north of Muskegon for the next few hours. However winds will weaken and flat line after that. So precipitation remains possible, however storms should be isolated into the counties north of Muskegon.
While strong winds, some of which could be 40 to 50 mph to be possible until 5 AM.

The cold frontal boundary will continue its slow slog to the east throughout the day. Temperatures today will be a shadow of what they were yesterday, however to could be enough to aid the front in sparking afternoon convection. As the line reaches southern lower this afternoon, there could be enough CAPE and shear to allow for showers and storms. The HRRR has enough of a cap and stable atmosphere to dampen much formation, however several other CAMS show a narrow line forming mid afternoon through the southeaster portion of the state.

- Frost Tonight into Wednesday morning

In the wake of the cold front, Dry cold air will propagate over the Great Lake region tonight into WEdnesday morning. A building high pressure over the upper Midwest will create downsloping flow over Michigan dropping dewpoints into the 20s. With dewpoints that low, along with clearing skies, temperatures should drop tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest model soundings support this with a decoupled sfc, stronger winds aloft and calm winds at the surface. Will wait on headline to narrow in on an area but a frost advisory will probably be needed.

- Showers and storms to end the week.

The high pressure will be short lived as a change in the upper level pattern will stream Gulf moisture through the region through the latter half of the week. There is some timing issues. Some precipitation could arrive as early as Wednesday night, however, flow is divergent at that point and considering the dry air that will reside over Lower Michigan, it should slow any precipitation arrival. There remains a persistent signal of widespread showers Thursday into early Friday.

Mid range models are starting to come into focus on trough passage which lends more confidence on the up coming weekend, which is looking drier but cooler.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Gusty winds up to around 45 knots have been the main impact so far today. These winds have likely peaked, and will slowly diminish this afternoon as winds change to become from the WNW behind the front moving through. Winds will then become from the NE overnight under 8 knots.

All sites are VFR this afternoon, and this should continue to be the case into this evening, before skies clear out for the remainder of this forecast period. KJXN is the only site that a shower is possible, and that is only through about 19z as a pre- frontal trough/lake shadow moves through. Then the cold front just NW of KGRR at 1730z will continue to push SE. Some lower clouds are trying to come in from the NW, and may bring a 3500 ft agl deck in across KMKG and KGRR for a few hours this afternoon, before dissipating this evening.



MARINE
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Cold frontal boundary, along with strong low level winds will keep conditions hazardous to small craft this morning. Showers and storms early this morning will mainly be north of Whitehall, however strong winds will continue at all zones through the afternoon before subsiding this evening.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ046-051-052- 058-059-065>067-071>074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.