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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Through early evening..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..West winds around 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 082038 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 338 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

- Rain Tonight Through Saturday Morning

Broken cloud cover continues along with mild temperatures due to southwesterly flow bringing in warm air and more moisture. The main source of lift initially will be the low level jet that moves in after midnight tonight along with warm air advection. The saturated layer won'd be that deep as moisture aloft does not increase until Saturday morning so only expecting some light showers. Coverage Saturday will be mainly scattered (30 to 60 percent) but areas west and north of Grand Rapids may see more widespread coverage (70 to 80 percent). As the front moves through during the late morning and early afternoon dry conditions return. Winds will also be breezy with gusts around 25 to 35 mph from the southwest.

Saturday evening there is a chance (20 to 30 percent)for some light rain and snow showers as some lingering positive vorticiy advection moves through the area. Not expecting any snow accumulations or impacts due to temperatures remaining above freezing across most of the area. Winds won't be as strong Saturday evening with gusts around 15 to 20 mph.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A secondary shortwave will pivot through the state late Saturday through Sunday morning resulting in invigorated precipitation chances across the area. As a cold front moves through Saturday night into early Sunday, 850mb temps will fall supporting increased instability over Lake Michigan. Northwest / north-northwest flow lake effect snow bands will persist during the daytime Sunday.
Northwest / north-northwest flow bands will have the greatest impact on areas along the immediate lakeshore and inland into Allegan, Van Buren, and Kalamazoo Counties. Inversion heights of around 5kft will limit snowfall amounts to about 1 inch or less.

The main trough axis lifts out of the region Monday morning resulting in a return of dry conditions. Temperatures will stay fairly consistent through next week with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the 20s. A weakening cold front will move through on Tuesday, but limited moisture should keep conditions dry for our area. As the main low to our north associated with this weak front pivots through northern Ontario, high pressure approaching from our west results in a strengthening pressure gradient over lower Michigan. Breezy northwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure takes over Tuesday evening and dry weather will last through the end of the work week.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Some MVFR continues this afternoon for areas north and west of Grand Rapids and Muskegon, otherwise mainly VFR across southern Michigan. Conditions will begin to deteriorate into MVFR after 00z this evening as rain moves in from the south. Periods of IFR are expected after 12z tomorrow. Winds will stay southerly for much of the TAF period and will begin to build after 06z tonight.
Gusts to 20 to 30 knots are possible through the morning to early afternoon hours tomorrow.



MARINE
Issued at 253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Gusty southwest winds drop below Small Craft Advisory levels later this evening with waves slowly falling below later tonight. There will be a brief lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions overnight before southwesterly winds pick back up and waves build once more with waves and gusty winds lingering through Sunday.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

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