Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Catskill, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Key Message:

- Bitterly cold temperatures tonight. The combination of cold temperatures and a slight breeze tonight has resulted in Cold Weather Advisories for elevations 1000 feet and higher where wind chills or "feel-like temperatures" range -15F to -25F.

Update
As of 12:45 AM EST...Main story tonight remains the cold weather. For areas that have decoupled and effectively radiated, temperatures were running as much as 5-10F below the previous forecast, so some adjustments were made to temps over the next several hours, especially in the Taconics and portions of the Catskills. However, with the coldest areas seeing the lightest winds, no changes were made to the headlines with this update. Otherwise, just minor adjustments to the previous forecast. Please see previous discussion below for more details...

Previous
Latest observations showing many already in the single digits to below zero across eastern NY and western New England thanks to the fresh snow pack and clear skies. While it will certainly be very cold tonight, exactly how cold we become will be contingent on the wind. When winds turn calm/light, temperatures will drop very quickly (i.e Bennington dropped from 10F to 2F in one hour when the winds went calm). However, winds are expected to turn slightly breezy again after Midnight per forecast soundings which will help prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out.

Lake effect snows will organize and extend into northern Herkimer County tonight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear in much of the region through the night but some upslope clouds into the Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills from time to time. Winds will be steady much of the night, which will slow the radiational cooling but the cold advection will help temperatures fall into the single numbers in many areas and below zero in higher elevations.

Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for many higher elevations for wind chills of 20 below zero or colder.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages:

- Lake Effect Snow expected into northern Herkimer County Tuesday

- Bitterly cold temperatures continue through Wednesday Night.

Discussion:

Cold weather continues through Thursday. Lake effect snows into northern Herkimer County through Tuesday night with 4 to 8 inches of snow in far northern Herkimer County.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the teens to around 20 with around 10 in higher elevations. Lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be in the single numbers to 10 below zero with Cold Weather Advisories once again in higher elevations.

Weak warm advection begins Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 20s and teens in higher elevations.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Messages:

- Mainly dry with moderating (albeit still below-normal)
temperatures Friday through Sunday.

- Chances for light snow showers increase for the second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week, but confidence remains low at this time.

Discussion:

Weak upper energy tracks through our region Friday with very little moisture and weak upper dynamics. Some scattered snow showers possible off the lakes but mainly dry elsewhere.
Generally zonal upper flow within very broad upper troughing over eastern North America Saturday and Sunday with more slow temperature moderation. More upper energy and the leading edge of colder air approaches Monday with some possible clouds and scattered snow showers.

Highs Friday in the mid 20s to near 30 with around 20 higher elevations. Highs Saturday in the upper 20s to lower 30s and mid 20s higher terrain. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 30s with mid to upper 20s higher elevations. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 30s with mid 20s higher terrain.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Flying conditions are VFR for all TAF sites. Our region is under the influence of broad southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave trough. IR satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies in place and any clouds from lake-effect snow activity are remaining well north of the area due to the southwesterly flow pattern in place.

Through the rest of the overnight hours, skies will remain clear for the TAF sites, keeping VFR conditions in place. There may be enough of a pressure gradient for some south to southwest winds in the 5-10 kts range, although some sites may decouple at times and see the winds becoming very light to calm at times.

On Tuesday, flying conditions should stay VFR. There may be a few cumulus clouds around 5 kft that develop in the daytime heating by afternoon, as well as some mid level clouds thanks to the approaching shortwave trough, but no precip or low clouds are expected for the TAF sites. West to southwest winds will be around 10 kts for all sites.

Despite the upper level trough overhead, it should stay dry into Tuesday night. Some mid level clouds may be around for the northern sites, with mainly clear skies to the south. VFR conditions should remain in place for all sites with winds becoming light to calm for all terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032-033- 038-047-051-054-058-063-082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032.
MA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001.
VT...None.