Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Catskill, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Warm temperatures, lower humidity, and gusty winds (25-35 mph)
are expected this afternoon which could blow around any outdoors unsecured objects.

2) There is a low to medium chance for areas of showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms returning Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

As an upper level shortwave passes to our east, a high pressure system builds into the region this afternoon. With heights rising and the NAEFS showing height anomalies +2.5-3.0 STDEVs for today, high temperatures will be warm ranging from around 70F in the W.
Adirondacks to mid 80s in the mid Hudson Valley. However the second half of the afternoon will see lowered dewpoints in the 50s-60s behind a passing cold front allowing for comfortable humidity levels. Cold air advection from the front and strong upper level winds seen in forecast soundings will encourage further mixing down to the surface of gusty winds from the W-NW. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range could develop through the evening today and could blow around any outdoors unsecured objects. Drier air continues to filter in tomorrow indicating a favorable environment for radiational cooling tomorrow night, where terrain areas, especially in the W. ADKs could see overnight lows in the 40s, with low 50s in valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As the high pressure starts to shift east off the coast Saturday afternoon, a warmer more southerly flow will begin to transfer increased moisture into the region, increasing dewpoints to more noticeable levels in the 60s. NAEFS guidance show PWAT values about +1.5-2" STDEV. Models suggest scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms during two periods from Saturday evening into Sunday. The first chance is timed with a passing short wave near the coast Saturday evening where much of the available moisture is focused. The best chance for scattered showers will be in areas south and east of Albany, especially across Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield counties. Skinny vertical profiles have warm cloud layer depths greater than 10,000 ft which will likely support efficient warm rain processes. A rumble of thunder Saturday night cannot be ruled out as low amounts of instability exists within the warm sector where SBCAPE values range 500-1000 J/Kg.

Probabilistic guidance has a 30-40% chance for areas south and east of the Capital Region to receive or exceed 0.5" and a low chance (less than 20%) to receive 1" or greater. However some uncertainty still exists at this time as there is some disagreement between models as to rainfall totals in these areas. There is higher confidence that areas north and west of Albany will receive less than 0.5". Across the region, rainfall totals in the 0.25-0.50" range are expected. Additional isolated to scattered showers could linger into early Sunday morning where there is terrain enhancement, mainly in western New England. A few thunderstorms are then possible on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front with the best chance northwest of Albany where SBCAPE values are near 1500 J/kg. WPC has placed just the very southern parts of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall Saturday through Sunday night where localized flooding primarily effecting urban areas and low lying areas where poor drainage flooding typically occurs. Drier and seasonable temperatures then build in for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Flying conditions are currently VFR with just some passing high cirrus clouds. Through the overnight hours, some lingering cirrus will be possible for all sites, but skies will remain fairly clear. Although low-levels are fairly dry, some radiational fog may develop towards daybreak at KGFL due to local terrain effects, but will keep out of the other sites at this time. Within any radiational fog at KGFL, a brief period of IFR conditions for visibility/cigs is possible between 07z and 11z, otherwise it will remain VFR. Gusty westerly winds this evening (around 10 kts) will quickly diminish to 5 kts or less by midnight, with light to calm winds for the late night hours.

During the day on Friday,flying conditions will be VFR. Aside from a few diurnal cumulus, skies will be fairly clear with light northerly winds around 5-10 kts for all sites. No perception is expected for Friday into Friday night, but some fog may develop again for some sites during the late night hours.

Outlook...

Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.