Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Catskill, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:29PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 2:49 PM EDT (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 6:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1237 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Chance of tstms. Showers.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1237 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore today. A low pressure system approaches tonight and moves across on Wednesday. Another low and its associated cold front cross the region on Thursday. This low will pull away into the canadian maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the plains states through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Catskill, NY
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location: 42.22, -73.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 071745 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 145 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Along with a mix of sun and clouds, mild temperatures are expected by this afternoon. Some showers are expected overnight tonight, but clearing should occur on Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures. A strong cold front will bring more showers to the region on Thursday, with cloudy, breezy and chilly conditions for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1239 PM EDT . Sunny skies remain in place this afternoon, as temps have warmed into the 50s across the area. A few more degrees of warming expected this afternoon. Made some minor adjustments for the rest of today.

With a large closed off upper level low located over eastern Canada, our region is under the influence of northwest flow aloft. At the surface, weak high pressure is building into the area from western New York for the day today.

With plenty of sun expected, daytime temps will be mild once again today, with highs well into the 50s for most spots. Some low 60s are possible for the Capital Region, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT as well. Winds won't be quite as breezy as Monday, but the typical deep early April mixing should allow for fairly low dewpoints through the day and some gusts of 20-25 mph in spots. Some clouds (mainly mid and high level variety) may start to increase once again for late in the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Warm advection will be occurring tonight as a surface warm front starts lifting towards the area from the mid-Atlantic States. However, this front will never make it across the area, as a low pressure area moves from the lower Great Lakes towards Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Hi-res model guidance suggests some light rain will be spreading towards the area for tonight, especially after midnight. The heaviest showers will likely be right along and south of the track of the low pressure area, which looks to be across the mid Atlantic states. 00z HREF suggest any instability will remain south of the area, so thunder for our area tonight. However, some bursts of rain can be expected for the late night hours and into the first part of Wednesday, as the storm passes by to our south. Most of the rain should be fairly light, with up to a quarter of an inch for the Catskills. Can't totally rule out some wet snow mixing at the very highest peaks of the Adirondacks/Greens, but most of the region will only see rain tonight.

Although rain should be ending on Wednesday morning for most, it looks to remain fairly cloudy through the remainder of the day thanks to the nearby boundary. Despite the clouds, temps should still reach in the low to mid 50s for valley areas (40s across the high terrain). Mainly dry weather will continue into Wed night with lows in the 30s.

Next storm system will be approaching the area for Thursday and this will be a rather dynamic and strong system. Strong low pressure will be lifting across southern Canada, while a boundary heads towards our area. This frontal boundary will be associated with a strong thermal gradient and a secondary area of low pressure will be rapidly developing along the front, although this may not be until the front passes through the area. A band of showers, some locally heavy, look to accompany the passage of the front. MUCAPE values may reach up to 200 J/kg for southern areas, so can't totally rule out a rumble of thunder for some spots, but this will be elevated in nature and probably somewhat isolated in coverage.

Max temps will be reached just ahead of the front around midday with 40s to low 50s and will be steady or falling behind the front. Westerly winds will quickly increase behind the front, with some gusts over 25 mph at times.

Some higher terrain areas may start to mix with wet snow for late in the day as colder air works in, although most of the precip should be done by that time. This will ultimately depend on how quickly the secondary low develops, which is still somewhat in question.

However, some lingering upslope and/or lake enhanced precip is expected for Thursday night behind the front thanks to the cyclonic flow aloft. This will be especially true for northwestern high terrain areas, where a light accumulation of snow will be possible for late Thursday night. Otherwise, cloudy, chilly and breezy conditions are expected for Thursday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. We start off the long term on Friday with an impressive closed low overhead which the GEFS show to feature 500 height anomalies 3 to 4 standard deviations below normal. Moist cyclonic flow persist through the day but the best chance for showers looks to be in the morning as a secondary shortwave within the parent closed low swings into the Northeast. The latest guidance shows this trough axis exiting into New England after 18 UTC with the northwesterly wind shift reinforcing the cold air advection during the afternoon. 850hPa isotherms fall to -5C to -7C and with Lake Ontario water temperatures still relatively mild at around +5C, the northwest fetch of the lake should provide lake enhanced showers for the afternoon, mainly for areas west of the Hudson. The cooler air mass underneath the closed low should support rain/snow mix with even accumulating snow for the higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks, spine of the southern Greens and Berkshires, especially Friday morning. Then, enough daytime heating should ensue that any lake enhanced showers fall as a cold rain for lower elevations areas as surface temperatures remain in the 40s (30s for the higher terrain). Higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks could less than an inch of wet snow accumulation with coatings to a few tenths possible in the other aforementioned higher terrain areas.

Besides rain/snow showers on Friday, it will also be windy. Winds underneath the impressive closed low look rather impressive with 925hPa winds ranging 25-30kts and 850hPa winds 30-45kts. Once the trough axis exits the region, guidance shows strong subsidence ensuing for the afternoon which may lead to some breaks of sun as westerly winds become northwesterly. Any breaks of sun within the cold air advection regime would enhance boundary layer mixing and increase the likelihood of even stronger winds aloft reaching the surface. For now, we show sustained winds ranging 10-18kts with gusts up to 30-35kts but this may need to be increased depending on model trends. Needless to say, the combination of clouds, showers and strong winds will make Friday feel raw and remind us that we are not free from cold spells just yet.

The closed low quickly exits Friday night with subsidence from a strong ridge in the Upper Plains pushing eastward. Skies should partially clear allowing temperatures to turn chilly, falling into the mid 20s to low 30s throughout the region. Breezy conditions remain in place overnight and the westerly flow off the lake should keep skies at least partly cloudy with even some showers still possible in the western Mohawk Valley. Both features should help moderate temperatures. High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic then takes control on Saturday leading to a dry and milder day with temperatures warming into the upper 40s to low 50s. This is still below normal for mid-April. Some clouds may linger due to the continued westerly flow off the lakes.

High pressure slides off the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night with our next impressive system developing in the Gulf States. Guidance has shown various solutions for this system over the past few model runs with the ECWMF the first to catch onto the track that most members are now suggesting. Guidance shows a compact southern stream shortwave which originates in the Pacific intensifying over the Mississippi Valley with a strong mid-level jet leading to an impressive moisture fetch out of the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture rich system then looks to intensify as it tracks either up the Ohio Valley or in the Carolinas. Increasing warm advection looks to allow precipitation to overspread eastern NY/western New England Sunday night into Monday. With high pressure well off the mid-Atlantic seaboard and not in the favorable spot over the Canadian Maritimes which would supply us with cold air, precipitation likely falls as all rain. The moisture fetch associated with this system should be highlighted. Should guidance continue tracking it into the Northeast, it would supply us with a widespread soaking rainfall. Otherwise, temperatures Monday should turn milder rising well into the 50s.

The system looks to exit Monday into Tuesday but a lingering baroclinic zone may lead to a secondary area of precipitation developing but this remain uncertain. Otherwise, temperatures remain mild on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 18z/Tue, VFR conditions will continue for the remainder of the afternoon with only a few fair weather cumulus clouds and high cirrus overhead. System will begin to approach our area this evening, with a gradual lowering and thickening of clouds, but VFR conditions will continue.

A few showers will begin to overspread the region between 03z/Wed and 06z/Wed with a steadier rain at times between 06z/Wed and 12z/Wed. Cigs will fall into the MVFR category at KALB/KPSF/KGFL and IFR at KPOU.

The steadiest showers depart by 12z/Wed with only lingering light rain and/or drizzle through the morning hours (primarily at KALB/KPSF/KPOU). Drier air from the north will aid in rising cigs back into the VFR range at or just after 18z/Wed (with KPOU/KPSF the last to do so).

Wind will be out of the west to northwest at 7-14 kt with gusts to 25 kt through this afternoon before decreasing to 5 kt or less tonight. Wind will be out of the north to northeast at 7 kt or less tomorrow.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Breezy. Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

FIRE WEATHER. Low RH Values This Afternoon .

Dry weather will continue again today. During daytime mixing, RH values will lower to 20 to 25 percent over much of the region this afternoon. Westerly winds will be 5 to 15 mph, with a few gusts up to 25 mph at times (mainly for the high terrain). Haines values will be locally up to 5 in some areas. RH values will rise tonight with some rain expected for most locations. One tenth to one quarter of an inch of rain is expected.

RH values won't be as low on Wednesday, with rain ending early in the day and mainly cloudy conditions staying through the day. Afternoon RH values will only be as low as 60 percent with light winds. A wetting rainfall is expected for the whole area on Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. After a dry day today, light rain showers are expected overnight, with about a tenth to quarter inch of rain. After a break in the wet weather for most of Wednesday, another front will bring more rain to the region for Thursday. A third to a half inch of rain is expected Thursday. While this rainfall may cause some minor rises on rivers and streams, no flooding is anticipated. Cloudy and cool weather, with a few more rain or snow showers, is expected for Thursday night through Friday night. Although most of the weekend will be dry, more rain will return for late Sunday into Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM . Frugis LONG TERM . Speciale AVIATION . Rathbun FIRE WEATHER . Frugis HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 15 mi79 min WSW 1.9 64°F 1010 hPa33°F
TKPN6 15 mi55 min N 6 G 7 59°F 49°F1009.8 hPa36°F
NPXN6 28 mi79 min WNW 2.9 59°F 1013 hPa34°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 80 mi55 min SSW 8.9 G 12 56°F 49°F1010.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 81 mi55 min SW 11 G 13 52°F 47°F1010.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA32 mi55 minW 16 G 2210.00 miFair58°F23°F26%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPSF

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
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2 days ago4NE3NW6NW5NW4W3W4NW3W4CalmNW7W4CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalm3W7W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for Catskill, Hudson River, New York
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Catskill
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:22 AM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:48 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.94.64.74.33.320.8-0.1-0.6-0.50.62.23.54.44.74.43.62.41.20.2-0.6-0.8-0

Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
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Coxsackie
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:06 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:24 PM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.34.24.95.24.83.72.61.60.70.10.51.62.944.85.25.14.22.91.910.20.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.