Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 4:31 PM   Moonset 3:30 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers late this evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will be in place through Monday. The high gradually slides farther out into the atlantic through midweek. A frontal system approaches from the west Wednesday night. The associated cold front approaches Thursday and moves across Thursday night.

FXUS61 KALY 190549 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 149 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Clearing skies tonight will support patchy fog except in western New England and the mid-Hudson Valley where marine clouds will push inland. A stretch of very warm temperatures ensues Monday through Wednesday before a cold front arriving later in the week will lead to chances for rain showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

As 145 AM EDT
A mid and upper level ridge continues to building from the Midwest over NY and New England this morning.
High pressure continues ridge in from the Ohio Valley. The skies have cleared or have become mostly clear from the Capital Region north/northwest with some lingering clouds over the western Mohawk and Schoharie Valley. Stratus continues over the Taconics into western New England due to a marine flow with the upper trough near the Eastern New England Coast. Some patchy radiational fog is possible. We expanded it some with this update and we increased the clouds over western New England.
SOme tweaks to mid temps with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper ridging and surface high pressure continue to build into the beginning of the workweek, yielding dry weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through the period.
Temperatures will rise well above normal, reaching highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s beneath partly cloudy skies on Sunday, and mid 70s to mid 80s beneath mostly sunny skies on Monday.
Overnight lows similarly trend upward despite favorable radiative cooling conditions, from the upper 40s to mid 50s on Sunday night to widespread 50s across the region on Monday night as surface dewpoints trend upward with developing southerly to southwesterly flow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper ridging over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with summer like temperatures. Strong upper impulse tracks across southern Canada and the Great Lakes later Wednesday through Thursday and there is considerable spread in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the track and timing of the upper impulse and associated cold front.

Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could reach the southern Adirondacks later Tuesday afternoon. Then, some scattered thunderstorms are possible along a pre frontal low level trough in our region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Highs Tuesday well into the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Highs Wednesday in the 80s with near 90 Hudson Valley and lower 80s higher terrain. Heat index values will be near actual temperatures since no extreme humidity is expected ahead of the cold front.

The low level forcing ahead of the cold front is in question, depending on how deep the cold advection will be behind the cold front. Low level jet energy will be relatively strong but mainly westerly and deep shear will be enough for some potential strong thunderstorms. Instability ahead of the cold front should be considerable but if the timing of the cold front is Wednesday night to Thursday morning, then instability will be minimized. Still too early to tell but again, strong thunderstorms possible but to early to determine the potential for and/or magnitude of severe weather.

Cooler and drier weather Friday. Highs Thursday, timing the front with a bit of an earlier frontal passage, in the upper 70s to lower 80s with around 70 southern Adirondacks. Highs Friday in the mid 70s to near 80 with mid 60s to lower 70s higher terrain.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06z Monday...Flying conditions remain VFR at GFL/ALB/POU as of 1:15 AM EDT and MVFR at PSF as low stratus has moved in there already. Stratus should continue to expand north and westward through the remainder of the night, with MVFR cigs expected to develop at POU during the pre-dawn hours. Already seeing some stratus developing near ALB, but thinking that cloud heights should remain above 3000 ft at ALB and therefore VFR conditions prevail into this morning. Clear skies at GFL may allow for some fog/mist development tonight, so have continued with the tempo group from the previous TAF issuance. If fog forms, then IFR vsbys and/or cigs are possible. At PSF, low stratus persists well into this morning with MVFR/fuel alternate cigs. Low stratus burns off at POU by 13-15z and 15-17z at PSF. Any fog at GFL burns off by 12z. Once fog/mist/low stratus dissipates, VFR conditions with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds expected through this evening. After 3z, MVFR cigs may redevelop at PSF with more low stratus possible tonight.

Winds will generally be light at 5 kt or less through sunrise, then increasing to 5-10 kt from the southeast at ALB/GFL and east/northeast at POU/PSF through this evening. Winds become light and variable by 3z at GFL/POU and remain easterly at PSF at around 5 kt and southeasterly at ALB at around 5 kt through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962 Glens Falls: 90 in 1975 Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941 Glens Falls: 93 in 1921 Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911 Glens Falls: 98 in 1911 Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Catskill
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Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:23 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Catskill, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Coxsackie
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Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:46 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:59 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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