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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday evening...
Early this morning..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers and patchy drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Today..West winds 10 to 20 knots backing southwest 15 to 25 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers and patchy drizzle until midday, then partly Sunny with a slight chance of flurries in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 111126 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 626 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 220 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Lake effect precipitation will dissipate this morning and dry conditions are expected through most of this week. Seasonable temperatures for the first half of the week will slowly climb to above normal by the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Lake effect precip will continue to wind down this morning as midlevel trough axis exits and subsidence inversion heights steadily lower. Low level winds also back quickly 12-18Z becoming southwesterly by this afternoon. Latest hi-res guidance does suggest some isolated showers may persist a few hours after 12Z and have extended slight chance PoP's accordingly but this activity will be very light and very isolated if it does occur. We will also continue to see increasing lack of ice nucleation as inversion heights lower supporting more light drizzle/mist than snow. However, extremely light QPF and still relatively warm ground/road temps will likely prevent any impacts to the morning commute. Dry conditions assured by midday though there is enough residual boundary layer moisture to support lingering stratocu until late afternoon. This will keep a lid on high temps with latest guidance suggesting highs may struggle to get much above the mid 30s. WAA and a steady SW gradient will offset clearing skies tonight and expect lows to hold in the mid/upper 20s.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

WAA continues into Tue ahead of a cold front being driven by northern Lakes midlevel trough. Moisture return and forcing for ascent are virtually nil for our area and no precip is expected (just a few midlevel clouds early in the day). Late day arrival may allow our SE zones to climb into the mid 40s while NW zones struggle to reach 40F. Strong subsidence/high pressure then settles into the Ohio Valley for Wed setting us up for some chilly nights with ideal radiational cooling. Lows near 20F are expected with highs on Wed again only around 40F.

Slow but steady moderation in temps expected through the weekend as low level ridge slowly moves east. Highs near 50F possible by the weekend. Continued split flow will keep our area mostly dry. Low chance of precip Fri night/Sat as next northern stream shortwave moves through the area. Still a ton of spread with this small-scale feature though and latest NBM came in almost entirely dry through the whole period. Still some low chances for rain but definitely not much as typical El Nino pattern maintains an active southern jet stream locking up better moisture well to our south.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Ample moisture trapped under subsidence inversion will maintain MVFR stratus for much of the day. Brief fuel alternate criteria may be possible later this morning as subsidence builds but will hold just above for now as guidance continues to be too low with ceilings currently. Winds back SSW late today and dry air advection will scatter out stratus around 21-22Z. VFR expected overnight with increasing winds by daybreak Tuesday as next (dry)
cold front approaches.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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