Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Michigan Beach, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Widespread rain showers extend from central Lower MIchigan into west central IL early this morning. A broad mid/upper trough working across the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes is inducing a broad frontogenesis response which is aiding in the coverage of the rain this morning. These rain showers will overspread the local area early this morning before departing from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Instability magnitudes are quite limited this morning with weak mid level lapse rates in place.
Some isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, but this should be of very limited coverage. Based on eastward translation of this low level frontogenesis forcing into the eastern Great Lakes later today, best rainfall amounts of one quarter to one half inch still appear likely generally along and north of US Route 6 corridor. The highest HRRR probs (40-50%) for rainfall amounts in excess of 0.50" through early afternoon remain generally along and north of the Toll Road. These rainfall amounts should be light enough to prevent a significant river response across the St. Joseph and Maumee river basins, with overall forecast trends still supporting continued falling river levels for points across these basins experiencing ongoing minor river flooding. Temps today will follow non-typical diurnal tendencies due to the influence of precipitation and cold frontal progression. At least a brief period of better mixing this morning could support some gusts back into the 25-30 mph range across portions of NW Ohio along and south of US 24 in advance of the cold front.

A cold night in store tonight as a low level anticyclone settles across the Great Lakes region with good radiational cooling conditions. Given rainfall of today and radiational cooling, cannot completely rule out some patchy fog development early Saturday morning but will hold off on mention at this time with possibility this could play out more as a patchy frost scenario.

Mid level heights start to recover across western Great Lakes on Saturday evening with some return warm/moist advection possibly allowing some advectively forced showers to clip far north/northwest areas. The more substantial surface warm frontal boundary should lift north across the area on Sunday setting up much above normal high temps in the mid-upper 70s for Sunday afternoon. Some indications persist in guidance of short wave emanating from upper low off the CA coast racing eastward to the Upper MS Valley Sunday night with a potential of some showers/isolated storm developing in pre-frontal zone. Instability should be limited with this feature so confidence in thunder is on the low side.
Progressive nature of forcing late Sunday should limit any significant additional hydro concerns for that period.

While a low level cool front may migrate south toward southern Great Lakes early Monday with passage of this initial mid level trough, expecting front to lift back northward as a warm front Monday with mild temperatures continuing. Monday's showers/storm potential is not very clear at this forecast distance as a potential lull in stronger mid level forcing could occur during this time along with a potential of some capping due to some steeper mid level lapse rates building into the region from the Rockies. Thus, just some low chance PoPs were maintained during the day Monday.

Early indications suggest best potential for some organized convection would be in the Tuesday-Wednesday (possibly Thursday?)
period. Medium range guidance would suggest a zone of respectable moisture transport setting up from east Texas into the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes region as a potential northern stream short wave skirts along US/Canadian border late Monday night into Tuesday. Great Lakes frontal zone may tend to sag southward into far N IN/SW Lower MI heading into Tue night/early Wed with increased shower and storm chances, and then will need to watch how the more potent southern stream upper level trough evolves for the middle of the week. An overall trend to an initially stronger upper level ridge across eastern CONUS and some dampening of this upstream trough toward middle of next week seems to support the slower idea past few guidance runs.
Overall synoptic setup would support a decently sheared environment and depending on timing/strength of the upstream southern stream upper level trough, some strong/severe risk could materialize Tuesday-Wednesday, Predictability appears to break down in deterministic/ensemble solutions post-Wednesday in regards to strength/progression of next Pacific NW disturbance for late next work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A broad mid level trough will work across the Great Lakes region today. This trough is inducing a fairly strong low level frontogenetic response across the Mid MS Rvr Valley to the western Great Lakes with a few embedded storms well upstream across northern Missouri. Rain showers are expected to overspread terminals overnight into the morning hours with a trend to MVFR cigs. A very small probability of thunder persists (20 percent or less), but given trends in near term guidance instability progs feel that this probability is too low for inclusion in terminal forecasts. The cold front will slip south of the terminals this afternoon resulting in ending of rain and improving cigs/clearing from NW to SE. Southwest winds will remain gusty for a time this morning at KFWA in advance of the front will eventual wind shift to the northwest at terminals. By this evening, incoming ridge of high pressure should result in light north winds and mainly clear skies.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.