DISCUSSION
Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The region will remain warm and dry for the next several days under the dominance of a strong ridge of high pressure. Afternoon highs will warm well into the 80s today, and to near 90 degrees on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 30 percent range, which brings up potential fire weather concerns, but winds should generally remain less than 20 mph. Therefore, although we will not meet Red Flag Warning criteria, care should be used if doing any outdoor burning, especially on Thursday as winds will be slightly breezy. Overnight tonight, mostly clear skies will lead to radiational cooling that will drop lows into the 50s. There could again be some patchy dense fog, especially across northwest Ohio into southeast Michigan where dewpoints will be a bit higher. On Thursday night, increasing cloud cover related to Tropical Storm Francine will keep temperatures slightly warmer and in the low 60s.

Concerning Tropical Storm Francine, models are now in good agreement that the center will stay far enough south of the local area that we will see little if any rain from this system. The main impacts being increased clouds and breezy winds, and therefore somewhat cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday, although highs will still be in the low 80s. East coast ridging then seems to build back in again for Sunday and Monday, giving more confidence in drier weather. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a low is expected to move in from the east under the blocking ridge. If this low tracks south of the region we will remain dry, but models do shift it northerly on Wednesday, providing for a possible chance of rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Prevailing VFR through the TAF forecast period with light and variable winds and dry conditions. Westerly winds will pick up to around 10 kts late morning into early afternoon.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.