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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Early this morning..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Snow likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Today..South winds around 10 knots backing east, then backing north 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Snow likely until midday, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..South winds around 15 knots veering west, then veering north late in the day. Rain likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 051147 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 647 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 235 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Light snow, possibly mixed with rain at the onset, will overspread the area through mid morning. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces along and south of highway 30. Dry and warmer conditions follow for the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Key Messages:

* Snow this morning, mixing to rain this afternoon.

* Light, slushy accumulations possible on elevated and grassy surfaces this morning. No travel impacts expected.

Vigorous sw disturbance over IA will track quickly ewd through cntrl IN by late day. N-S band of mixed precip across IL attm will broaden in time as it and strings out more W-E through this morning.
Otherwise slight swd jog in sys track indicates highest qpf around 0.20 to align near the SR14 corridor. That said, marginal temp profiles and initial rain at onset limits potential snow accums to at most an inch here with lessor amounts north/northeast.

Synoptic driven precip shuts down quickly by mid aftn as sys streaks east. Meanwhile sharpening low level thermal trough in post sys nwrly flow will yield lake effect showers by mid evening and overnight. However these will be tempered by shallow inversion heights and limited moisture flux as synoptic moisture strips away.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Key Messages:

* Scattered lake effect snow showers persist into Wednesday morning in nw IN and sw MI. Minor snow accums possible.

* Dry, breezy and unseasonably mild weather is expected Thursday through Friday.

* Active weather returns this weekend (chances for rain/snow/wind)

Disorganized, multi-banded lake effect rain/snow showers Wed morning will diminish by aftn as low level flow backs wrly within developing warm advection pattern. This will accentuate further into Fri ahead of strong longwave disturbance splits through the Rockies.
Sharpening low level thermal ridge impressive and looks to propel temps will into the 50s by Fri.

THereafter predictability, esp with srn split and its intensification/evolution out of the srn plains remains uncertain.
Little trend seen in prior guidance runs to yield a favored hedge but consensus of an rapidly deepening sys lifting newd out of the srn plains Sat night and into the lakes Sun proves interesting.
Challenge here is with sfc frontal progression in association with leading nrn split through James Bay Sat and degree of upper trough amplification in srn split late Sat given indication of heavy cold sector precipitation potential late this weekend.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

A clipper type of system was over far southeast IA. This system will move east and continue to bring a snow and rain mix to northern Indiana. The rain/snow line at this time was south of SBN and in the VCNTY of FWA where a rain and snow mix was reported. Given a slightly warmer boundary layer, added a rain and snow mix at SBN by late morning. Conditions should improve some this afternoon as this system moves east out of the area. Some lingering precipitation is possible, but is not expected to impact the terminals.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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