Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Michigan Beach, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1159 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Between today and Wednesday, a slowly southeastward moving high pressure system takes over in the Bermuda high area and sets up a relatively weak southeastern CONUS ridge. This puts the area in a warm advection pattern that continues into late week when a cold front pushes through Thursday night or Friday morning. Meanwhile, a moderately vigorous shortwave that's slowly weakening moves northeastward through the Great Lakes into into Canada by Wednesday.
As a result, unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms will be common as 70 degree dew points creep into the area and MUCAPE reaches to between 1000 to 2000 J/kg at times during this period. The Wednesday and Thursday period seems to have the greatest instability as it passes 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE.

For this afternoon into tonight, a more moist airmass pushes into the area and the HRRR seems to show cells pushing into areas west of I-69 before dissipating. With the 70 degree dew points pushing in at the surface and 850 mb dew points running from 10 to 15C, this will create an environment for locally heavy rain.

For Tuesday, both the NAM and the GFS have the greatest effective shear (30 to 40 kts) in what appears to be the time where suppression behind the vort max moves in and weak height rises appear to ensue. So that while we have moisture, instability, shear, and an EML advecting in, the limiting factor for Tuesday's chance for thunderstorms to go severe will be lift. There are periods of large scale ascent advecting through in the progressive flow so maybe that could be enough to set something off? This may mean Tuesday's severe weather chance will rely on advecting in already strong storms if it's going to produce severe weather.

For Wednesday, a few relatively weak shortwaves move through in the flow and as mentioned earlier, strong instability is across the area with plenty of moisture. We've also got a lingering EML. Perhaps this environment is enough to get some severe weather because, while it appears the better shear may stay to our west, we may be able to advect stronger storms into the area and have the better mid level lapse rates maintain severity of the storms. The better large scale ascent does appear to stay in MI though. Damaging wind and some hail will be the most likely possibility with helicity lacking in the hodograph, but flooding cannot be ruled out from the repeated storm chances and moist atmospheric column.

For Thursday, a strong shortwave moves from the Central Rockies late Wednesday night up into the Northwest Great Lakes late Thursday.
This pushes a relatively strong surface low pressure system into the area Thursday. Again, strong instability and moisture will be around the area, but the low's track may keep it just far enough west to restrict forcing to northwest of the area until Thursday night/ Friday with the cold front. By this time, we've lost the EML and we still only have 20 kts of effective shear at most. So, again severe weather could be possible, but we'd have to rely on cell collisions or advecting in something elsewhere to produce something substantial.

Another aspect of this period is that as the Bermuda high pressure system sets up, warmth and moisture moves towards the area. At the same time that we have the 70 degree dew points, we've also got 850 mb temperatures that surpass 18C, which with good mixing would make 90 degree surface temperatures also possible creating a heat advisory situation. Of course, the fly in this ointment is the thunderstorm chances. The closer we get to Wednesday and Thursday, the better chance we'd have an idea about if thunderstorms or cloud cover would around to affect our warming for these days. On Wednesday, the greatest chance to see 90 degree temps is highest (50 to 100%) west of IN-15 and along US-24. Elsewhere has more like 30 to 50% chance, mainly north of US-24 and east of IN-15. Thursday's chance is more marginal with areas east of I-69 having the best chance (greater than 50% chance). Additionally, Wednesday night has Min apparent temperatures bottoming out around the low 70s which indicates the difficulty to see any recovery (cooling) period at night. The cold front pushes through Friday and allows highs to fall back into the 80s and 70s into the following Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Have MVFR/VFR conditions predominantly through the period, eventually dropping down to IFR for a time with overnight cooling and excessive humidity. Showers and storms moving through KSBN, lightning activity has diminished some in the last 15 minutes but lightningcast data suggests a 10-30 prob of a lightning strike so kept SHRA/VCTS with tempo for 2SM/BKN009 (based on upstream obs). It's possible we pop back up to VFR again briefly before lower ceilings become more persistent.

Could be a shower or thunderstorm at KFWA but looks more likely between 10-14z and then again tomorrow afternoon/overnight. Have VFR conditions becoming MVFR towards 8-9z, with a tempo for showers and some IFR ceilings. Given marked decrease in lightning activity recently, think that should hold without need for mention of thunder.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.