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LEZ167 Expires:202312112130;;288577 Fzus61 Kcle 111450 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 950 am est Mon dec 11 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis.. High pressure ridge averaging 30.20 inches builds east across the lower great lakes this afternoon and tonight a cold front moves east across the lake by Tuesday evening as high pressure 30.70 inches builds over the great lakes from the west Wednesday night. This high settles over the upper ohio valley Thursday into Friday.
lez165>168-112130- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border-geneva-on- the-lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 950 am est Mon dec 11 2023
This afternoon..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A slight chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 111815 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 115 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the region tonight into Tuesday before a cold front pushes east across the local area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Another high will build over the Great Lakes Wednesday and anchor over the region through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
1230 PM EST Update...
Upper trough will progress east of the area this afternoon with high pressure building into the region in its wake. The arrival of drier air will allow remaining lake-enhanced snow showers across NW PA and NE OH to dissipate this afternoon with the development of southwesterly flow pushing any lingering precip north over Lake Erie this evening into tonight. Additional snow accumulation should only be an additional few tenths of an inch.

Southwest flow deepens in response to the approach of a cold front on Tuesday with gusts to 30 mph likely during peak heating. The front will cross the local area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, however significant low to mid-level dry air will be in place across most of the area so frontal passage should be dry for the vast majority of the region. The only exception will be NW PA, where there may be a narrow corridor of moisture and a low-end chance of light lake-enhanced rain/snow showers with very little (if any) snow accumulation.

Warm air advection will allow temps to marginally recover Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 40s expected. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and Tuesday night.

Previous Discussion...

The axis of a shortwave through continues to move E'ward across our CWA this morning and should exit our region by this early afternoon. Behind the shortwave trough, a shortwave ridge should build from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes before cresting generally E'ward over our CWA tonight. At the surface, a trough lingers over our region this morning and will be followed by a building ridge this afternoon through tonight as the ridge's core moves from the Lower MS Valley to the southern Appalachians. This afternoon's highs will reach mainly the lower to mid 30's in NW PA and the mid to upper 30's in northern OH.
Lows overnight tonight should reach mainly the mid to upper 20's around daybreak Tuesday.

Lake surface to 850 mb temp differences near 13C to 16C and sufficient albeit shallow low-level moisture will allow primarily light lake-effect precip (LEP) to persist over and downwind of ~7C Lake Erie through most of tonight as lake- induced equilibrium levels remain below 10 kft above lake level.
The aforementioned weather pattern evolution will allow NW'erly mean low-level flow early this morning to back to WNW'erly by this early afternoon, to WSW'erly by this early evening, and then to SW'erly by the predawn hours of Tuesday morning.
Accordingly, LEP, mainly in the form of snow, will shift gradually NE'ward across the snowbelt and vicinity before shifting offshore around midnight tonight. Some rain may mix with snow during the late morning through afternoon hours of today. The greatest low-level moisture, greatest lake-induced EL's (near 5-8 kft above lake level), and steadiest LEP are expected this morning, especially generally east of Cleveland, where upstream moisture connections to Lake St. Clair and Lake Huron will target portions of the snowbelt for a time. Hi-res model forecast soundings suggest these bands of steadier lake- effect snow (LES) may contain bursts of heavy graupel as stronger low-level convergence along the bands' major axes may allow strong, maximized ascent at a cloud temp of ~-5C and the upper-reaches of lake-effect clouds should extend into the DGZ.
An overall weakening trend in LEP is expected this afternoon through tonight due, in part, to a lowering subsidence inversion and low-level dry air advection behind the aforementioned shortwave trough. Primarily fair weather is expected elsewhere, although light LES showers originating over Lake Michigan should continue to impact portions of NW and north-central OH through this morning. Fresh snow accumulations through tonight are expected to mainly be 1" or less, but 1-3" are expected in the higher terrain of our NW PA counties, south of I-90 and east of I-79.

The aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward on Tuesday. Cyclonic W'erly flow aloft, embedded/subtle shortwave disturbances, and surface troughing follow. In addition, a weak cold front will approach from the western Great Lakes before sweeping E'ward through our CWA during the afternoon through early evening. A relatively clear sky, daytime warming, and low-level WAA ahead of the cold front should allow daytime highs to reach the lower to mid 40's. In addition, diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft should allow SW'erly to W'erly surface gusts to reach 25-35 mph during the mid-morning through late afternoon. Of note, limited low-level moisture should permit a dry front passage. However, sufficient low-level CAA and moisture behind the front, and Lake Erie surface to 850 mb temp differences rebounding to 13C, should allow light lake- effect rain and/or snow showers to develop along/near the lakeshore in Erie County, PA toward nightfall. These showers should occur amidst cyclonic WSW'erly mean low-level flow and frictional surface convergence along the lakeshore.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Cold front crosses the region Tuesday evening with a marginal period of lake effect snow possible across NW PA through Wednesday evening.
Temperatures are not all that cold so any accumulations look to be light and likely only occurring in the higher terrain east of I-79.
High pressure builds over Ohio Wednesday into Wednesday night and will shut down the light lake effect snow that developed across NW PA. The dry weather across Ohio Wednesday will spread to NW PA Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Colder in the wake of the cold front Tuesday night with lows into the 20's at most locations. Not much of a warm up Wednesday with highs only into the mid 30'3 to around 40. Wind chills Tuesday night into Wednesday make it feel even colder with teens to 20's common.
Warming trend begins Thursday after a chilly Wedneday night with lows in the 20's. Sunny skies will boost temperatures Thursday with highs in the upper 30's to mid 40's. Clear skies Thursday night will allow temperatures to dip back into the 20's at most locations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Warmer temperatures and December sunshine will continue Friday into Saturday. Although the sun will likely be filtered on Saturday.
All this occurring ahead of the next cold front that attempts to move toward the region Friday night. This boundary likely stalls north of the Lake Erie and becomes the path for the next area of low pressure that emerges over the Upper Midwest. This once again appears to be more of a clipper type system that remains weak with minimal cold air in its wake Saturday night into Sunday. Limited moisture will be available for this system to lift with only an increase in cloud cover expected Saturday night into Sunday. A stronger upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon through Monday but much of its energy likely transitions to deepening low pressure off the Middle Atlantic Coast.
Maybe some weak lake effect snow develops Sunday night into Monday across NE OH into NW PA. Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal averages through the long term.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
Mixed bag of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist across the area through this evening before ceilings begin to improve from west to east as high pressure builds into the region tonight. Expect ceilings to improve to VFR areawide near or shortly after 06Z tonight. Winds will be out of the west/northwest at 8 to 14 knots through tonight with a few gusts to 20 knots possible this afternoon.

Although VFR is expected on Tuesday, southwest winds increase to 12 to 16 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots during the day Tuesday. Locally higher winds to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots are likely at terminals near the lakeshore, especially KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lake-effect rain and/or snow showers in the snowbelt of far-NE OH and NW PA Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

MARINE
An upper level trough is passing overhead this morning. Expect increased cold advection through mid afternoon. Winds should continue at 15 to around 20 knots through the day. These speeds and a west to northwest fetch should keep waves 4+ feet into the evening. We will then see winds shift back to the southwest as a clipper type system sweeps across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect southwesterly winds to increase significantly ahead of a cold front that crosses the region Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Southwesterly winds approach 30 knots from the center of the lake to the east end Tuesday afternoon. As winds shift to the west-northwest speeds decrease a little bit but the cold advection will be more efficient bringing the remaining wind to the surface.
So expect wind speeds to remain in the 15-20 knot range through Tuesday night. Wind speeds and waves decrease through Wednesday evening, lingering longest from Cleveland to Ripley.

So with all this said we will allow the small craft advisories to gradually drop off from Sandusky Bay to Avon through the afternoon.
There likely will be a lull in wind speeds and wave heights Cleveland to Ripley overnight. This time period is short so we will keep it in effect and extend it through Wednesday evening. The west end of the lake to Avon will need to be added back into a small craft advisory starting around 09Z TUE then gradually end Tuesday evening into the overnight.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ146>149.

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