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LEZ167 Expires:202312120345;;301707 Fzus61 Kcle 112019 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 319 pm est Mon dec 11 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis.. High pressure ridge averaging 30.20 inches builds east across the lower great lakes tonight. A cold front moves southeast across the lake Tuesday afternoon followed by high pressure 30.70 inches building over the great lakes from the west through Wednesday night. This high settles over the upper ohio valley on Thursday, weakening to 30.50 inches by Saturday.
lez165>167-120345- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 319 pm est Mon dec 11 2023
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 112103 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 403 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the region tonight into Tuesday before a cold front pushes east across the local area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Another high will build over the Great Lakes Wednesday and anchor over the region through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Upper trough will progress east of the area this afternoon with high pressure building into the region in its wake. The arrival of drier air will allow remaining lake-enhanced snow showers across NW PA and NE OH to dissipate this afternoon with the development of southwesterly flow pushing any lingering precip north over Lake Erie this evening into tonight. Additional snow accumulation should only be an additional few tenths of an inch.

Southwest flow deepens in response to the approach of a cold front on Tuesday with gusts to 30 mph likely during peak heating. The front will cross the local area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, however significant low to mid-level dry air will be in place across most of the area so frontal passage should be dry for the vast majority of the region. The only exception will be NW PA, where there may be a narrow corridor of moisture and a low-end chance of light lake-enhanced rain/snow showers with very little (if any) snow accumulation.

Warm air advection will allow temps to marginally recover Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 40s expected. Overnight lows will be in the 20s tonight and Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Strong high pressure (around 1042 mb) builds in from the west, becomes centered over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night, settling there through Thursday night. Strong suppression from this high pressure should lead to sunny/clear skies in the short term period (a rare site indeed for this time of year).
Lingering light cold air advection with northwest flow will keep temperatures cool on Wednesday before that high builds in and allows sunshine to warm temperatures into the low to mid 40s on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure lingers over the Ohio Valley on Friday before gradually weakening and drifting to the east coast on Saturday.
This should continue the dry conditions with warm temperatures in the upper 40s through Saturday. An upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes region while another more potent trough/low develops over the Gulf of Mexico and lifts northeast along the east coast Sunday/Monday. One (or both) of these systems could bring light precipitation to the area, mainly Sunday night into Monday. However, chances are very low at this point, with only a 20% PoP in the forecast, mainly for Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Precipitation uncertainties aside, above normal temperatures will continue into Sunday with temperatures starting to come back down to near normal by Monday.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
Mixed bag of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist across the area through this evening before ceilings begin to improve from west to east as high pressure builds into the region tonight. Expect ceilings to improve to VFR areawide near or shortly after 06Z tonight. Winds will be out of the west/northwest at 8 to 14 knots through tonight with a few gusts to 20 knots possible this afternoon.

Although VFR is expected on Tuesday, southwest winds increase to 12 to 16 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots during the day Tuesday. Locally higher winds to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots are likely at terminals near the lakeshore, especially KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lake-effect rain and/or snow showers in the snowbelt of far-NE OH and NW PA Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

MARINE
West winds of around 10 to 20 knots continue this afternoon/evening (stronger to the east, weaker to the west), with winds becoming southwest tonight. Southwest winds gradually strengthen tonight, peaking at 20 to 30 knots late Tuesday morning. A cold front moves southeast across the lake Tuesday afternoon, with winds becoming west and weakening to 15 to 25 knots before fully diminishing below 20 knots by Wednesday afternoon. A small craft advisory is in effect for the entirety of Lake Erie to cover these stronger winds and waves.

Strong high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, remaining there through at least Friday before drifting eastward to the coast. West winds become southwest by Thursday with speeds around 20 knot expected Thursday afternoon/night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ142- 143.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ146>149.

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