Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for River Rouge, MI
March 29, 2024 7:58 AM EDT (11:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:16 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 11:49 PM Moonset 8:05 AM |
LCZ422 222 Am Est Wed Feb 28 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border - . Port sanilac to port huron mi - . St. Clair river - .
at 222 am est, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near lakeport to 11 nm northwest of st. Clair, moving east at 35 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Lakeport around 230 am est. Port huron around 235 am est.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these strong Thunderstorms reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these strong Thunderstorms arrives.
&&
lat - .lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4293 8245 4290 8247 4289 8251 4301 8247 4322 8256 4325 8257 4329 8228
the areas affected include - . Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border - . Port sanilac to port huron mi - . St. Clair river - .
at 222 am est, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near lakeport to 11 nm northwest of st. Clair, moving east at 35 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Lakeport around 230 am est. Port huron around 235 am est.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these strong Thunderstorms reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these strong Thunderstorms arrives.
&&
lat - .lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4293 8245 4290 8247 4289 8251 4301 8247 4322 8256 4325 8257 4329 8228
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 291053 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 653 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Mostly sunny and seasonal temperatures today.
- Widespread showers arrive Saturday morning. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible.
- Additional showers will again be possible Sunday and Monday while temperatures settle near seasonal averages.
AVIATION
An extension of high pressure from central Canada is weak but still able to maintain clear sky across SE Mi this morning. Increasing high clouds then occur this afternoon and evening as the next low pressure system moves into the Midwest. This system brings a round of rain showers into Lower Mi late tonight that reach the SE Mi terminal corridor toward sunrise. Light NW wind today veers easterly as the low pressure system reaches the south end of Lake Michigan by Saturday morning. MVFR to borderline IFR ceiling follows the low pressure center across southern Lower Mi during the day Saturday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight, high Saturday.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
DISCUSSION...
A diffuse high pressure system over the Great Lakes with antecedent dry conditions highlighted by an expansive dry low-level airmass within water vapor imagery have supported clear skies through the overnight hours. This brings a chilly start to the day, where temperatures now reside in the upper 20s. Little change to the synoptic pattern outside of some gradually building heights within the mid-level ridge will continue to support dry weather and clear conditions through the day. A subtle increase in warm air advection coupled with solar insolation will support daytime highs in the low to mid 50s, with some locally cooler temperatures across the Thumb.
Low-level warm air advection will then ramp up tonight into early tomorrow morning in response to an upper wave and low pressure system that builds into the Midwest. A 60 knots low level jet from h850 through h700 will build in across Indiana and Ohio just downstream of the low pressure, which will advect the nose of Gulf moisture into the southern Michigan. Forcing along the nose of this jet will be maximized south of the state line, but will clip portions of SE MI south of I-94 by the mid-morning hours. This will also elicit a decent frontogenetic response across MI, generally from Fremont to Monroe, with frontolysis taking place through the late morning hours, given the unfavorable zonality of the llj across Indiana and Ohio. Taking into consideration mid-level forcing from the upper-level shortwave and even a couple hours of upper-level divergence from right entrance dynamics from the extension of the atlantic jet, the expectation is for widespread rain to fill in over SE MI through the morning hours. Have increased PoP values for all of SE MI, placing categorical (>80%) south of M59, where the low- level forcing is maximized. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible here, respecting the deeper layer forcing, but SBCAPE/MUCAPE will not be present which is an inhibiting factor. Locations north will likely see lighter rain (70% chance) through the morning as a secondary sheared wave moves in along the cyclonically sheared side of an approaching jet stream.
There are some questions as to how well temperatures will recover within the wake of the passing low/wave. There is higher confidence that warmer air and stronger mechanical mixing, tapping into warmer air aloft, will fill in along or south of I-94 in the afternoon, promoting temperature highs in the mid to upper 50s. The question is how far north the warm nose will get into SE MI. The 10th percentile within the EPS has max highs of 44-45 degrees across ARB to DTW, supporting a lower-end possibility that the warm sector fails to breach up to I-94. Locations removed from the warm sector (highest probability along and north of I-69) will likely stay capped in the 40s with sustained drizzle possible noting boundary layer moisture extending through 5kft.
High pressure will build back in across the Great Lakes Sunday morning into the early afternoon, producing dry weather with highs in the low 50s. The main feature to watch through the early week period (late Sunday to early Tuesday morning) will be the baroclinic zone and stationary front that is expected to set up somewhere over southern Michigan or down across the northern Ohio River Valley.
This will be the focal point for prolonged rainfall, heavy at times, from overrunning along the front. Ensemble variance is large at this time regarding where exactly the front will settle. Through the midweek period, an upper-level wave will carve into the Midwest, enhancing the longwave trough pattern across the eastern US. This will bring additional chances for precipitation (rain to a rain/snow mix) during the midweek period.
MARINE...
A narrow ridge of high pressure extending southeast from Manitoba drifts over the region today, resulting in predominantly WNW winds at around 10 to 15 knots. The next low pressure moves through the southern Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing rain and snow to parts of the region. Winds organize out of the E/NE ahead of the system early Saturday then shift to NW as it passes by to the south Saturday night. High pressure builds in early Sunday with benign weather and light, variable winds. This will be short-lived as multiple disturbances then track across the region Sunday night through the early week. At this time winds look to remain below marine headline criteria.
HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall will move in across SE MI through Saturday morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall along or south of the I-94 corridor, where rainfall totals around a quarter-inch will be possible. Rainfall totals around a half-inch cannot be ruled out, but will likely stayed confined to or south of the state line. Rain is expected to exit the region through Saturday afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 653 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Mostly sunny and seasonal temperatures today.
- Widespread showers arrive Saturday morning. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible.
- Additional showers will again be possible Sunday and Monday while temperatures settle near seasonal averages.
AVIATION
An extension of high pressure from central Canada is weak but still able to maintain clear sky across SE Mi this morning. Increasing high clouds then occur this afternoon and evening as the next low pressure system moves into the Midwest. This system brings a round of rain showers into Lower Mi late tonight that reach the SE Mi terminal corridor toward sunrise. Light NW wind today veers easterly as the low pressure system reaches the south end of Lake Michigan by Saturday morning. MVFR to borderline IFR ceiling follows the low pressure center across southern Lower Mi during the day Saturday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight, high Saturday.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
DISCUSSION...
A diffuse high pressure system over the Great Lakes with antecedent dry conditions highlighted by an expansive dry low-level airmass within water vapor imagery have supported clear skies through the overnight hours. This brings a chilly start to the day, where temperatures now reside in the upper 20s. Little change to the synoptic pattern outside of some gradually building heights within the mid-level ridge will continue to support dry weather and clear conditions through the day. A subtle increase in warm air advection coupled with solar insolation will support daytime highs in the low to mid 50s, with some locally cooler temperatures across the Thumb.
Low-level warm air advection will then ramp up tonight into early tomorrow morning in response to an upper wave and low pressure system that builds into the Midwest. A 60 knots low level jet from h850 through h700 will build in across Indiana and Ohio just downstream of the low pressure, which will advect the nose of Gulf moisture into the southern Michigan. Forcing along the nose of this jet will be maximized south of the state line, but will clip portions of SE MI south of I-94 by the mid-morning hours. This will also elicit a decent frontogenetic response across MI, generally from Fremont to Monroe, with frontolysis taking place through the late morning hours, given the unfavorable zonality of the llj across Indiana and Ohio. Taking into consideration mid-level forcing from the upper-level shortwave and even a couple hours of upper-level divergence from right entrance dynamics from the extension of the atlantic jet, the expectation is for widespread rain to fill in over SE MI through the morning hours. Have increased PoP values for all of SE MI, placing categorical (>80%) south of M59, where the low- level forcing is maximized. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible here, respecting the deeper layer forcing, but SBCAPE/MUCAPE will not be present which is an inhibiting factor. Locations north will likely see lighter rain (70% chance) through the morning as a secondary sheared wave moves in along the cyclonically sheared side of an approaching jet stream.
There are some questions as to how well temperatures will recover within the wake of the passing low/wave. There is higher confidence that warmer air and stronger mechanical mixing, tapping into warmer air aloft, will fill in along or south of I-94 in the afternoon, promoting temperature highs in the mid to upper 50s. The question is how far north the warm nose will get into SE MI. The 10th percentile within the EPS has max highs of 44-45 degrees across ARB to DTW, supporting a lower-end possibility that the warm sector fails to breach up to I-94. Locations removed from the warm sector (highest probability along and north of I-69) will likely stay capped in the 40s with sustained drizzle possible noting boundary layer moisture extending through 5kft.
High pressure will build back in across the Great Lakes Sunday morning into the early afternoon, producing dry weather with highs in the low 50s. The main feature to watch through the early week period (late Sunday to early Tuesday morning) will be the baroclinic zone and stationary front that is expected to set up somewhere over southern Michigan or down across the northern Ohio River Valley.
This will be the focal point for prolonged rainfall, heavy at times, from overrunning along the front. Ensemble variance is large at this time regarding where exactly the front will settle. Through the midweek period, an upper-level wave will carve into the Midwest, enhancing the longwave trough pattern across the eastern US. This will bring additional chances for precipitation (rain to a rain/snow mix) during the midweek period.
MARINE...
A narrow ridge of high pressure extending southeast from Manitoba drifts over the region today, resulting in predominantly WNW winds at around 10 to 15 knots. The next low pressure moves through the southern Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing rain and snow to parts of the region. Winds organize out of the E/NE ahead of the system early Saturday then shift to NW as it passes by to the south Saturday night. High pressure builds in early Sunday with benign weather and light, variable winds. This will be short-lived as multiple disturbances then track across the region Sunday night through the early week. At this time winds look to remain below marine headline criteria.
HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall will move in across SE MI through Saturday morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall along or south of the I-94 corridor, where rainfall totals around a quarter-inch will be possible. Rainfall totals around a half-inch cannot be ruled out, but will likely stayed confined to or south of the state line. Rain is expected to exit the region through Saturday afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 18 mi | 58 min | WSW 1G | 30°F | 30.06 | |||
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 30 mi | 58 min | WNW 6G | 36°F | 30.04 | 21°F | ||
AGCM4 | 38 mi | 58 min | 29°F | 38°F | 30.01 | |||
TWCO1 | 40 mi | 38 min | SW 6G | 37°F | 24°F | |||
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH | 44 mi | 58 min | NNE 5.1G | 36°F | 30.07 | |||
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH | 44 mi | 58 min | WNW 2.9G | 31°F | 30.02 | 24°F | ||
CMPO1 | 49 mi | 88 min | W 5.1G | 29°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
CYQG WINDSOR,CN | 6 sm | 58 min | W 03 | 9 sm | Clear | 27°F | 18°F | 68% | 30.05 | |
KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI | 11 sm | 65 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 30.05 | |
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI | 12 sm | 23 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 18°F | 64% | 30.06 | |
KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI | 16 sm | 65 min | SSW 03 | 9 sm | A Few Clouds | 28°F | 19°F | 69% | 30.06 | |
KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI | 21 sm | 23 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 19°F | 64% | 30.07 |
Detroit, MI,
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