Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:01PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:59 AM EST (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:51PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0062.000000t0000z-191027t1045z/ 633 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. However, gusty winds to 30 knots will persist. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4292 8246 4282 8248 4276 8247 4262 8251 4259 8254 4270 8264 4269 8260 4266 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4322 8256 4341 8259 4343 8255 4343 8220 time...mot...loc 1030z 264deg 39kt 4320 8228 4239 8143
LCZ422 Expires:201910271042;;929996 FZUS73 KDTX 271033 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 633 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-271042-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge city, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 110456 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1156 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

AVIATION.

A steady influx of lake Michigan moisture within cold west-southwest flow will maintain an extensive lower stratus into day on Wednesday. This will continue to encourage some light snow shower or flurry development through the morning hours. Generally VFR conditions through this time, although a period of higher intensity snow shower activity does remain possible as cold air advections strengthens again. PTK northward more favorably positioned to witness this activity given the prevailing trajectory, allowing for brief disruptions into MVFR/IFR. Gusty westerly conditions will emerge during the morning period, reaching near 25 knots at times during the day.

For DTW . Periodic light snow showers/flurries will remain possible through the morning hours as metro continues to reside on the southern edge of the lake moisture plume. VFR conditions with no accumulation expected, as any heavier activity expected to remain north. Westerly winds /260-280 direction/ turning gusty Wednesday, reaching near 25 knots at times.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Wednesday.

* Medium for westerly wind gusts reaching crosswind threshold Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 331 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

DISCUSSION . Scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries will continue to make inroads into southeast lower, mainly along and north of I94, on a cold westerly flow through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Most activity will be light but there maybe a few moderate snow showers that could produce a tenth or two of accumulation before sunset. Winds will gradually back to the southwest during the night which will shift any snow shower activity to mainly along and north of the M59 corridor. Increasing influx of drier air will result in a decrease in coverage and intensity of lake effect snow showers. Southwest flow trajectory will also keep lake effect clouds north of the Detroit area. Winds will remain up and gusty keeping lows cold but more uniformed in the mid to upper teens.

A surface trough marking another reenforcement of arctic air will push through Wednesday morning. Though the airmass will be even drier, there will be enough convergence and low level instability to squeeze out some flurry action. Clouds cover will gradually decrease throughout the afternoon as highs barely recover to the upper teens north to upper 20s south.

Wednesday night skies will clear and winds will go light as high pressure center slides through. Lows will depend on how quick mid and high level clouds move in ahead of next system. Guidance suggesting lows will bottom out in the lower teens before clouds advect in after midnight, but could easily crater into the single digits if skies remain clearer longer.

Southerly flow around departing high pressure and ahead of weak surface and mid level wave passing across the northern lakes will help temperatures back into the 30s. This system will bring mainly cloudy skies for the area with a slight chance of light snow showers or flurries across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb. Friday will remain dry with readings slightly above normal Friday as overall flow remains southerly ahead of a weekend system.

The weekend outlook continues to feature a powerful upper level jet from the Pacific initially forcing zonal flow across U.S. by Friday which quickly buckles by Saturday. Extended models offer loosely similar solutions of broad low pressure over the Ohio valley with relatively mild air over the Great Lakes. This system is subject to further adjustments due to timing of upper level amplification during late week but for now presents a chance of rain and snow showers in our area Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE .

A secondary cold front pushes through the lakes this evening and tonight, bringing a renewed surge of arctic air that will increase instability over the water and stronger southwesterly winds that gradually veer westerly through the day Wednesday. A Gale Warning has been issued for northern Lake Huron where the increased fetch and better cold advection will bring the best chance for marginal gales late Wednesday morning and afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Lake Huron nearshore marine areas from Saginaw Bay to Port Sanilac. Potential for snow squalls remains for Lake Huron through tonight into Wednesday with rapidly reduced visibility possible in the heaviest activity. Freezing spray may also become a concern on Wednesday for Lake Huron. Conditions then quiet down on Wednesday night as surface ridging passes over the region, but this relief will be short-lived as another low pressure system lifts into the Great Lakes on Thursday and brings an increase in southerly flow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-441-442.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DRC MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi60 min WSW 9.9 G 17 23°F 1024 hPa (+0.0)
AGCM4 38 mi60 min 24°F 41°F1023 hPa (+0.5)
TWCO1 40 mi40 min WSW 16 G 22
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 44 mi60 min W 19 G 22 24°F 1026.1 hPa (+0.6)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi60 min WSW 5.1 G 11 21°F 1025.3 hPa (+0.0)11°F
CMPO1 49 mi90 min W 11 G 13 21°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi65 minW 7 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy21°F12°F70%1024.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi67 minW 810.00 miOvercast23°F10°F57%1024.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi67 minSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy22°F12°F68%1025.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi64 minW 910.00 miOvercast24°F12°F61%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW19
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W6NW11W9NW11NW9
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1 day agoS9
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2 days agoS9S7S10S10S8S11S11S10S8S12
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SW10SW11S7S7S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.