Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday April 9, 2020 7:45 PM EDT (23:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:20PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0002.000000t0000z-200408t0200z/ 939 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 am edt for southeastern michigan...and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4297 8241 4293 8245 4288 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4267 8251 4263 8251 4261 8254 4277 8248 4281 8249 4293 8248 4297 8243 4317 8251 4318 8233 time...mot...loc 0136z 307deg 49kt 4281 8212
LCZ422 Expires:202004080148;;740080 FZUS73 KDTX 080139 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 939 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-080148-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge city, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 092341 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 741 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

AVIATION.

Afternoon winds gusting to over 40 knots at time for some terminals should begin to ease up into tonight. However, winds will remain elevated out of the west-northwest with gusts to around 25-30 kts into tonight as tight pressure gradient remains with a relatively mixed boundary layer. Scattered to numerous shower activity will also begin to decrease in coverage over the next hour or two with the loss of daytime heating and passage of a surface trough. Low VFR stratocumulus should continue into tomorrow tied to the cold airmass now over the region. Winds tomorrow hold out of the west- northwest with gust potential eventually falling below 20 knots by the late afternoon.

For DTW . Crosswind threshold concerns will continue into the early part of tonight with 30 knots from 280 to 380 degrees possible through about 06Z. Probability of achieving crosswind thresholds will then decrease into tomorrow morning. Non accumulating rain/snow showers will begin to decrease over the next couple of hours with ceilings hovering around 5,000 feet.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in crosswind thresholds being exceeded into tonight.

* Low in ceilings below 5000 ft tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

DISCUSSION .

Scattered to numerous rain/snow showers with embedded small hail and graupel will hold on late this afternoon into early evening as lift from trailing shortwave trough extending west from main low pressure over New England couples with diurnal heating to fuel this small scale convection. Isolated thunder will also remain possible for several more hours within the most vigorous cells. This activity will be most prevalent over the northern half to two thirds of the forecast area with all activity waning after 00z or so as both the above components are lost.

Dry weather can then be expected overnight into Friday and on through Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area in the wake of this system. The airmass will be rather cool so despite the boundary layer remain well mixed tonight and some degree of clouds persistent, low temperatures will still fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Similar low temperatures can be expected Friday night as the ridge axis crosses the area and promotes less wind and clearer skies. In between, chilly highs can be expected on Friday with lower to mid 40s common under partly sunny skies.

Some moderation is expected this weekend as upper ridging builds back into the Great Lakes as next western CONUS trough evolves. This will yield high temperatures back in the lower 50s by Saturday and 50s to lower 60s on Sunday.

A significant storm system is expected to lift into the region by that time (late Sunday into Sunday night) as cutoff low pressure over the southwest CONUS is ejected into the region as impressive shortwave (or two) digs southeast through western Canada into the northern Rockies/plains. The phasing of the northern/southern stream looks to support very strong surface cyclogenesis in the area. This lead to an expanding area of rain into Sunday night and then very windy conditions on Monday as the resulting intense surface low pressure deepen over/just north of the forecast area (at least per 12z model consensus).

In the wake of this strong late winter/early spring storm, expect a much colder airmass to overspread the area as broad upper trough expands to encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS. High temperatures by the last few days of this forecast (Tuesday and Wednesday hold in the lower to mid 40s with low temperatures in the 20s to around 30). While no additional major storm system are expected next week, the pattern will be rather unsettled with rain and/or snow showers at times.

MARINE .

The strength of the low level cold air advection and magnitude of the cold air today has boosted over-lake mixing depths despite the relative cold lake temps. This combined with the tight northwest gradient and strong low level wind fields on the back side of deepening low pressure over New England will support continued gale force wind gusts on the open waters of Lake Huron tonight and into Friday morning. In fact, the strongest wind gusts (around 35 knots) are expected this evening through daybreak Friday. The gradient will weaken during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday, leading to a steady drop in winds and waves. The potential for gale force gusts will also drop off markedly after noon on Friday. Gusty winds and high waves will however continue to support hazardous conditions to small craft into late afternoon/evening on Friday.

High pressure will slide across the region Friday night into Saturday and will provide relatively light winds and waves. Deepening low pressure is forecast to track across the Mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday before moving into the Great Lakes region on Monday. This system will cause south-southeast winds to back toward the east on Sunday. As the system crosses the region on MOnday, it will have the potential to bring another round of gale force winds to the lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until noon EDT Friday for MIZ049-054.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning until noon EDT Friday for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LHZ422-442-443.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . AA DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi46 min WNW 8.9 G 23 42°F 1002.7 hPa (+2.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 30 mi116 min WSW 28 G 30 44°F
AGCM4 38 mi124 min 41°F 41°F1000.6 hPa
TWCO1 40 mi96 min WNW 29 G 37
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 44 mi46 min WNW 37 G 40 42°F 1002.9 hPa (+1.4)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi118 min W 18 G 25 43°F 1003.6 hPa24°F
CMPO1 49 mi76 min W 21 G 30 43°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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G36
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G11
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G18
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E3
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N6
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NE1
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G13
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G12
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G11
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G17
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W6
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi51 minWNW 16 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F27°F59%1002.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi53 minW 13 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds41°F25°F53%1002.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi53 minWNW 13 G 229.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F28°F65%1003.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi51 minW 15 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F26°F57%1002.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N7N10N6N63NW3NW8
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N9NW6
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NW7NW8W8
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G29
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G35
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G23
1 day agoE6N3N9
G27
SE9NE8CalmCalmN5NW5N7N8N7W3NW6NW54NW9W10NW9
G17
3W11
G15
W10
G20
W10
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W8
2 days agoSE7SE5E4S5S5S3S3W4CalmCalmSE5CalmS7E3SE3E4E3E4E3E44E4E5E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.