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LEZ149 Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 926 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 52 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 150109 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 909 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will gradually shift southeast late this evening into tonight as a low pressure system moves east across the Ohio River Valley. High pressure returns on Thursday before a warm front lifts north on Friday, followed by a cold front Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds back in on Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
905 PM Update...
Showers with a south to north moving PVA axis continue this evening over the western CWA Patchy mid level f-gen will produce more showers going forward through the overnight, scattered and slightly disorganized as the surface low pivots west to east along the Ohio Valley. Lingering surface troughs will also provide a focus for shower development as well. Minor temperature adjustments, and increased the POPs in the western zones accordingly.

Previous Discussion...
An upper-level low located over the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening gradually moves east tonight and tomorrow across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a stationary front lingers from northern Indiana to southeast Michigan and southern Ontario.
This front extends from a low over southern Illinois. This low is expected to move east across the Ohio Valley, bringing the stationary front southeastward as a cold front tonight and tomorrow.

This will result in isolated to scattered rain showers through tonight and tomorrow. There is a very low chance for a thunderstorm or two. This afternoon, it's most likely in Northwest Ohio, late tonight it's more likely in central Ohio. PoPs are generally in the 20-40% range, except this evening and tonight along the southern and western fringes of our forecast area (e.g. I-75 corridor in Northwest Ohio and parts of central Ohio) where PoPs of 60-70% are forecast. Precipitation chances increase out east (east of I-77) Wednesday afternoon, with isolated/scattered thunderstorms possible. High pressure builds in by Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Thursday will see briefly drier conditions as the broad, closed off mid/upper shortwave trough moves into the Mid Atlantic region allowing mid/upper shortwave ridging to slide across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes along with weak surface high pressure ridging down from the north. Most areas will be dry outside of a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in far eastern Ohio and NW PA where lingering moisture combines with diurnal heating. Again, coverage will be spotty.

The drier weather will be short lived as another mid/upper shortwave trough progresses from the Upper Midwest Thursday night through the central and eastern Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. The associated surface low over the Upper Midwest Thursday night will lift up into the vicinity of James Bay by early Saturday, dragging a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday morning.
Warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent will drive increasing chances for showers from west to east Thursday night into Friday morning as a warm front lifts across the region, and there looks to be a couple hundred joules of elevated CAPE for some embedded thunder. However, not all areas will see rain since forcing will be weak since the mid/upper shortwave will be deamplifying as it progresses through the Great Lakes leading to the surface low also weakening. This will limit the strength of the low-level jet to around 20 knots which therefore limits the strength of the moist, isentropic ascent. For these reasons, kept PoPs at chance late Thursday night and Friday morning. The better chances for rain will come Friday evening and Friday night as the trailing cold front crosses the region and forcing from the right entrance region of a 60-70 knot H3 jet supports decent frontogenetic forcing. This combined with weak to moderate instability will bring a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the region, so have likely PoPs Friday evening into Friday night. Wind fields do not look very impressive since the wave is deamplifying and shifting farther north, but good low-level moisture advection in the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening (dew points rising into the low/mid 60s) could support over 1000 joules of SBCAPE if there are enough breaks in the clouds, so isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The main concern would be strong winds and hail. Again, the threat is conditional. The showers/storms will gradually progress off to the east and southeast Friday night.

Highs in the low/mid 70s Thursday will warm into the 75 to 80 degree range Friday. Lows Thursday night will cool into the mid 50s/low 60s with upper 50s/low 60s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The extended forecast continues to look unsettled. The aforementioned cold front Saturday morning will become quasi- stationary then try to press north Sunday before wavering back and forth early next week, and possibly through the middle of next week.
This is in response to gradually deepening mid/upper troughing over the western CONUS which builds broad/flat downstream ridging over the central and eastern CONUS. The polar jet/westerlies look to retreat to the US/Canadian border and northern Great Lakes by early next week, with disturbances ejecting out of the western trough and rippling through this flow and their associated surface waves riding along the boundary. This pattern points to possible MCS activity generating over the Midwest and moving into the Great Lakes at times, as well as general scattered showers and thunderstorms near the frontal zone, so kept chance PoPs this weekend through early next week. Uncertainty on where the frontal boundary will be each day, as well as the degree of forcing with each wave, makes precip timing and coverage low confidence, so temperatures are also subject to change, but for now, stayed with the idea of warmer/humid conditions, but the higher heat will remain south of the CWA This yields low/mid 70s Saturday warming into the upper 70s/low 80s Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
MVFR ceilings will continue to push northward through the remainder of the evening and into the overnight period. Some scattered showers around, but only expecting MVFR to prevail with some reduced visibilities. Places that do not receive rainfall also could drop to MVFR visibilities as winds drop to 5kts or less. As low pressure passes south of the area west to east along the Ohio River Valley, lingering forcing to the north will continue the chances for showers through the remainder of the TAF. For most terminals and times, prevailing is not warranted and will leave the mention out for now. Easterly winds become northerly through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.

MARINE
Winds and waves look mostly low impact through the period. NE winds increase to 10-15 knots tonight, with some pockets of 15-20 knots in the central and western basins, as low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. This will generate 2 to 3 foot waves. At this time, think winds and waves will stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
NE winds will continue to average 10-15 knots Wednesday before becoming N to NE and decreasing to 5-10 knots Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds will turn S to SE at 5-10 knots Thursday night and Friday as a warm front lifts across the lake, with S winds then continuing at 5-10 knots Friday night and Saturday before turning more E Saturday night and Sunday. A few thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves Friday evening and Friday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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