Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Northwest Harborcreek, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight through Wednesday.

2) An unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely..

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure today will gradually shift east as a weak cold front associated with a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest tonight. Light showers are possible beginning around midnight for the Toledo area and then spreading east into Wednesday morning. The best support for shower develop should be along and north of US-30 initially before becoming more widespread Wednesday afternoon/evening. The remains minimal thunder potential through Wednesday morning as the airmass remains fairly stable, but as diurnal heating increase into the afternoon chances of thunder will increase. At this point, given the disjointed timing between the upper level support and the surface heating, the severe potential remains limited. Conditions should dry out by Thursday morning as high pressure returns. Highs today through Thursday will be in the mid 70 to low 80s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The high pressure system impacting the area on Thursday and Friday will push east this weekend as a deepening trough and associated surface low are expected to impact the area. Models are becoming more consistent with the cold front pushing east late Saturday with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. This would put shower and thunderstorms across the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Although exact timing remains uncertain, given the strong dynamics including a strong upper level jet and vort max, will likely see thunderstorms at some point. If the best synoptic energy coincides with the best diurnal heating, some of these storms may become strong to severe. Will need to keep an eye on this system in the coming days to determine the potential severe risk this weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain consistent, climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s for highs and falling into the upper 50s to low 60s for overnight lows.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/
VFR conditions are prevalent across the region. There are some diurnal clouds forming a broken ceiling from KFDY eastward at around 040-050. This will persist to around 00Z when an upper level ceilings moves into the region. Weakening showers are expected late tonight into early tomorrow morning that may impact terminals, though main impacts will be ceilings lowering to around 050. Showers should dissipate by KCLE and the eastern terminals will remain dry outside of KERI. Ceilings will progressively drop through the day tomorrow down to MVFR conditions and will last through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light through the TAF period, generally out of the northwest at around 5 knots this evening then shifting to the southwest at less than 5 knots overnight. Winds will shift back out of the west at 5-10 knots during the day tomorrow with the approaching cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Saturday with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Conditions across Lake Erie will remain fairly quiet as winds with be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots this evening, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight into Wednesday morning. Waves will be choppy, though the highest waves 2 to 4 feet will stay in the open waters with the near shore seeing 2 feet or less. Winds will shift to be northerly behind a cold front on Wednesday and diminish to 5 to 10 knots and persist through Thursday night. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet and possibly around 4 feet in the near shore with the front and right after, then will diminish. Friday, winds will shift to be southerly at 5 to 10 knots, then shift to be northwesterly late Saturday night behind a cold front, increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

There will be potential for showers and thunderstorms across Lake Erie Wednesday and Saturday that could bring higher winds and waves within the storms. There is higher confidence in thunderstorms impacting the lake on Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.