Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bainbridge, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A Gradual warmup starts today as a warm front pushes its way in from the west this afternoon. A low pressure system will transit the area tonight, bringing rain showers to the region.

2) A battle between high pressure to the west and a trough to the east will generate a 10 degree temperature gradient across the CWA midweek into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure over the area brings clear skies and calm winds thru the morning, with temperatures falling into the mid 20s to upper teens across the region. Cold air will stick around this morning, with temps in the 30s for much of the morning. A warm front will push in from the west this afternoon, allowing temps to climb into the low to mid 50s for most areas west of I-81.
The cold air may linger east of I-81, with temps struggling to break 50.

A shortwave will amplify as it tracks across the Great Lakes this afternoon, developing a weak surface low that will slide across the area this evening and overnight. Light rain showers will develop along a reinforcing warm front this shortwave will push through. Rainfall amounts this evening into Wednesday morning will be light, will less than 0.25 inches expected across the CWA The rain should push out by late morning, leaving high pressure and dry conditions in its wake.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern thru Friday, bringing dry conditions. We will be under NW flow through the rest of the week, with a ridge to our west and a trough to our east. This will allow for warm air under the ridge to move in west of I-81, with some cooler air periodically filtering in east of I-81. A 10-15 degree temperature gradient is expected to set up Wed-Fri with mid to upper 60s in the Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers and and upper 50s to low 60s east of I-81.
The flow seems pretty linear with no shortwaves rippling through that may pull cooler air farther west than currently forecast.

Wet weather may return for the weekend. The ridge to our west is progged to break down, allowing a shortwave to dive into the area from the NW. Lots of uncertainty remains about the timing of the ridge breakdown, which will determine the track of the low and where rain showers develop.



AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure with clear skies and calm winds tonight.
Increasing clouds with VFR conditions expected through the day before rain showers move in during the evening hours. Rain is expected to be light and restrictions are not expected for this TAF set.

Outlook:

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...Front approaches the region with scattered showers and restrictions possible.

Wednesday afternoon and Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible.

Saturday...Showers and associated restrictions possible; low chance of thunder.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.