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FXUS61 KBGM 071911 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 211 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light snow will gradually come to an end by tonight with some lingering lake effect flurries north of the Thruway. A warm up develops from tomorrow into the weekend, followed by a strong storm that will bring heavy rain and strong winds for later Sunday and Sunday night. Rain then ends as a period of snow early Monday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
210 PM Update...

Minor mid-level short wave will continue to exit the region tonight with light snow lifting east of our area and diminishing. We lose ice crystalization in the dendrite zone on the KUCA Bufkit sounding this evening and have included a mentinon of patchy freezing drizzle for a few hours in the Western Mohawk Valley as this looks to be the area that will hold onto moisture and marginal lift the longest
Elsewhere
upper ridging will promote subsidence along with some dry advection as seen in WV satellite imagery. Low clouds will be stubborn to diminish until the 850 mb ridge passes late tonight and stronger warming and diurnal effects kick in on Friday. Dry and mild conditions will round out this part of the forecast with high temps tomorrow surging into the 40s. Partial sunshine is also expected to return.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A warm frontal boundary will slowly lift northward across the region Friday night through Saturday. Moisture looks limited but enough for some clouds to enter the picture once again. Southerly winds should pick up a bit Saturday as well in the warm sector with a few gusts of 15-20 mph showing up on modeled soundings. Most locations should push 50 for highs as a result. A slow moving frontal boundary draws a little closer coupled with a strengthening LLJ to increase warm air advection and moisture for Saturday night. Temperatures may fall a few degrees in the evening before becoming steady overnight in the 40's. Rain ahead of the front may get into the Finger Lakes by daybreak Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A very active Sunday and Sunday night period still expected. Plenty of warm air and moisture will be drawn northward ahead of a slow moving cold front. This will result in widespread rainfall spreading west to east across the region. Given the south to north motion of the rainfall several rounds of rainfall are expected with increasing PW values heavy downpours will be possible. Ensemble guidance is generally showing from 1 to locally 3 inches of rainfall. The good news is that the ground is not totally frozen with low snow cover.
However, this amount of rainfall in a short period can still lead to a few occurrences of urban and small stream flooding.

An impressive LLJ is also modeled ahead of the cold front as well, which should allow a temperature spike into the 50's Sunday. More importantly, Winds a few thousand feet up in the atmosphere increase to over 50 mph by Sunday afternoon from the LLJ. However, the wind will have some difficulty mixing down the ground with top gusts of 30-40 mph more likely at this time. These top wind gusts would likely be just ahead of the front when some elevated instability becomes present. The instability looks to limited for any strong to severe thunderstorms with CAPE non-existent but enough to where some thunder is possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty convective showers are not out of the question though.

Behind the front should be a sharp drop in temperatures to around freezing. Anafrontal precipitation is modeled across the region allowing rain to change to a quick thump of moderate to heavy snow for a good portion of central New York Sunday night. The exact track of the surface lows generating the anafrontal precipitation will determine how long and how much snow will occur. For now, a few hours of snowfall with some light accumulations do look possible.
Temperatures should hover around freezing Monday with some lingering light snow showers. A flash freeze is unlikely given that temperatures look to only drop to around freezing.

Temperatures generally in the 20's and 30's Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak disturbance or two may result in a few snow showers at some point with the highest chances along the Ny Thruway corridor.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Light snow with occasional alternate minimum restrictions will continue to affect KSYR-KRME through the afternoon while gradually moving east and weakening with time. West of that line...restrictions in snow should not be an issue, however, anywhere there are currently VFR ceilings at the start of this forecast will become widespread MVFR by 21Z which will continue into tonight. Rapid improvement to VFR cigs above FL050 is expected to occur on Friday as warmer and drier air advects into the Northeast.

Winds generally SW 5-10 kts becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Becoming MVFR-IFR with rain developing in the afternoon.

Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Gusty winds.

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and gusty NW winds.

Tuesday...VFR-MVFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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