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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 111719 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1219 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023


AVIATION

Overcast skies towing the VFR-MVFR line remain entrenched over southern lower MI this afternoon as west flow continues to draw in low level lake moisture. Winds gradually turn to southwesterly by this evening ushering in milder, slightly drier air which is expected to dissipate/shunt lingering lake cloud out of the area overnight. Low pressure tracking across northern Ontario Tuesday results in strengthening southwesterly flow locally by Tuesday morning with peak gusts in the 20-25kt range. Associated cold front then swings through latter half of the day leading to a shift back to cooler west-northwest flow. While low VFR to perhaps borderline MVFR cloud increases daytime Tuesday in advance of the front, frontal passage itself will be dry.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet through this evening, low by late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

DISCUSSION...

Deep layer subsidence amid building heights in the wake of a departing mid level wave will expand across Lower Mi this morning and prissiest into tonight. This large scale subsidence will deepen the low level inversion, which will likely hold the stratus deck in place into the evening. This and limited low level thermal advection will keep daytime temps mainly in the 30s today. Low level wind fields will back toward the southwest tonight and will strengthen.
This will drive a warmer low level airmass into Se Mi, eroding the low level inversion and allowing for a clearing trend. Despite the clearing trend, the strength of the gradient flow (1500- 3k ft level winds of 40-45 knots) will limit nocturnal cooling and support nighttime lows mainly in the upper 20s.

The backed flow will be in advance of a cold front moving into the northern lakes tonight. Models have trended a bit stronger with the amplitude of the mid level trough within the base of a polar low originating from central Canada and moving into northern Ontario by Tues morning. This will force the associated surface front all the way into the Ohio Valley by Tues evening. The larger scale dynamics will be focused north of the forecast area. Model cross sections actually indicate the frontal forcing becoming very shallow as it pushes across Se Mi, even falling apart by the time it pushes south of metro Detroit. Model solutions also show a fairly significant mid level dry layer advecting into srn Lower Mi by afternoon. While there will likely be some low clouds with fropa, a dry forecast will continue to be warranted on Tuesday. The low level wind fields along the front will still support fairly breezy conditions. The strongest wind fields are actually expected within the prefrontal airmass as opposed to the post frontal cold air advection region.
With the support of model soundings and probabilistic guidance, peak wind gusts will be kept to 30 MPH, perhaps a little higher in the northern thumb.

The cold front will usher in a seasonally cold airmass for the midweek period. Broad sfc high pressure will expand and strengthen across much of the eastern US during the latter half of the week within a split mid level flow regime across the CONUS. Most notable will be the warm air advection within the return flow of this sfc high which will bring mild air to the forecast area by the end of the week.

MARINE...

There will be a backing of the winds during the course of the day and evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest, forecast to move into far northern Lake Huron Tuesday morning.
Prefrontal southwest winds will become quite strong across Lake Huron tonight and into Tuesday morning. The potential for gales will hinge on the degree of mixing to the lake surface as these winds will drive a warmer low level airmass across the lake. There does look to be a potential for a period when there is enough over lake instability to cause some southwest gale force gusts across Saginaw Bay into central Lake Huron. Current probability guidance is under 50 percent for gusts to gales, however there has been an increase in the probabilities the last few model cycles. Therefore, a gale watch will be issued for Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron overnight into Tuesday morning. Later forecast shifts will determine if an upgrade to a warning is needed.

THe post frontal wind fields will not be as strong. There does look to be a period Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night where the gradient increases across the north third of Lake Huron. While there is a potential for a few brief gusts to gale force, guidance is more supportive of 30 knot type wind gusts attm.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for LHZ363- 421-422-441-462.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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