Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 9:42 PM   Moonset 6:10 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 251730 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions today with a warming trend to bring him temperatures to the 50s today and 60s on Friday.

- Showers are likely Friday night with a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms through Saturday morning.

- Breezy southwest winds develop Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible.

- There is a chance for additional thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening. A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for northwest portions of the forecast area. An isolated storm will be capable of producing hail to 1 inch in diameter and gusts up to 60 mph with storm motion from southwest to northeast at 45 mph.

AVIATION

Surface high pressure centered over Ontario this afternoon maintains deep static stability and limited cloud cover through the TAF period. Light easterly flow (less than 10 knots) deviates to the northeast at mbS and to the southeast in the DTW corridor as lake breezes push inland. More uniform easterly flow is then restored late this evening alongside nocturnal cooling with a general uptick in wind speeds Friday morning toward 10 knots as the pressure gradient strengthens in advance of the next low pressure system.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 407 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

DISCUSSION...

An extremely dry air mass is in place, characterized by PWAT of 0.14" observed in the 00z DTX sounding. For context, this is the lowest late April PWAT recorded at our site since 00z 4/26/2000 per SPC climatology. No surprise that skies are clear this morning and temps have dropped well into the 20s away from the lakeshore and urban footprint. The Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM.
With high pressure parked overhead, temperature advection will be nil today but do expect the abundant sunshine to bring a notable improvement to the brisk conditions from yesterday. High temps in the mid 50s look on track this afternoon with light wind mainly out of the east. Lows tonight look to settle to the lower to mid 30s.
Modest lake moisture flux within the easterly flow and more of a gradient tonight will prevent another widespread hard freeze, but areas of frost are certainly plausible.

On Friday, a low pressure system will strengthen over the central Plains in response to a strong mid-level wave passing over the Rockies. This amplifies the ridge axis in place over the Great Lakes and maintains dry and stable conditions through the daylight hours.
High clouds will steadily increase over the course of the day as the Plains system's warm conveyor begins to advance in from the west.
Better low-level moisture advection should hold off until the LLJ veers into the southern Great Lakes, likely after dark Friday evening. This air stream will have origins in the western Gulf and will rapidly moisten the column with PWATS rising in excess of 1 inch overnight. A band of showers will likely pivot through overnight into Saturday morning as the LLJ drives a corridor of strong warm/moist ascent up the progressing warm frontal slope.
Models continue to suggest some embedded thunderstorms will be possible given the strong upward vertical motion. Lapse rates near moist adiabatic will offer little elevated instability and a strong near-surface stable layer will result from the elevated warm advection, thus severe storms are not anticipated.

As the Plains wave eventually tracks from the Upper Midwest into Ontario on Saturday, it will weaken and shear across the longwave ridge over the eastern half of North America and modest height rebounds are likely across the Great Lakes. We will be positioned within the warm sector as the surface low races well to our north, leaving its cold front draped nearly stationary across the western Great Lakes. This feature will be the main forcing mechanism for convective activity on Saturday afternoon, and think the brunt of it will remain to our north and west. However, there will remain at least a chance of showers and storms Saturday afternoon as the sfc- 850mb theta-e ridge moves in with relatively weak capping in place.
MLCAPE building to around 500 J/kg with a belt of 40 kt southwesterlies aloft will bring the potential for stronger storms if convection does fire, especially late in the day. SPC has highlighted parts of the region in a Day 3 Marginal Severe Risk.
Temperatures will trend up to the mid 70s for a high and breezy southwest wind looks to gust around 25 to 30 mph.

A second low pressure system develops over the Plains on Sunday and tracks northeast along the stalled frontal boundary into the Midwest. Have high confidence in another day spent in the warm sector with temps well into the 70s - possibly 80s for some spots.
Lower confidence exists on convective trends at this stage. Models have varying depictions of placement/strength of the LLJ and potential for a secondary warm frontal passage which would be the main forcing mechanism. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will likely undergo another period of modest amplification as the low deepens well to the west, and this may provide a less favorable background environment for convection. Will hold on to the inherited chance/likely PoPs but can expect significant revisions for this period as we glean additional insight. Higher confidence does exist in cold frontal passage on Monday that will likely direct a round of showers and storms across the area. Only weak cold advection is shown behind this system so expect above normal temps through the bulk of next week.

MARINE...

The influence of high pressure will maintain lighter wind speeds through the day into tomorrow morning. Low pressure, derived from the Panhandle of Texas, will then fill in across the western Midwest, while the aforementioned high pressure system settles over New England. This will strengthen the pressure gradient across the Great Lakes, bringing elevated winds and gust potential centered Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The peak gust potential is expected by Saturday morning, where gusts just shy of gales, or occasional gust to gales, will be possible across Lake Huron. Very stable over-lake conditions will be in place during this time as warm air filters over the cooler waters, so the expectation is that the increased stability will help prevent sustained mixing of gust to gales. Widespread showers with some rumbles of thunder will be likely Lake Friday into Saturday morning as a warm front moves over the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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