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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parchment, MI

June 25, 2024 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 9:24 PM
Moonrise 11:30 PM   Moonset 8:50 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1105 Am Edt Tue Jun 25 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .

Rest of today - Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 10 to 20 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through early afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.

Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.

Thursday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming around 10 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.

Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering west late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parchment, MI
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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983 FXUS63 KGRR 251452 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1052 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Early Morning Potential for Severe Thunderstorms

- Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon

- Additional Showers Early Wednesday

- Fair weather Thursday then showers and storms Friday/Saturday

UPDATE
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The showers and storms that brought damaging winds and hail to the region have moved to the south. Outflow in the wake of the exiting storms will bring gusty winds at times upwards of 35 to 45 mph. This wake low will continue to dwindle into the afternoon with the potential for gusty winds through this timeframe. Gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph will be possible this afternoon and through the rest of the day especially along the lakeshore. Winds will remain out of the southwest before shifting to a more westerly direction.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

- Early Morning Potential for Severe Thunderstorms

Much of the forecast remains unchanged while we monitor the cluster of storms currently tracking through northern Wisconsin that will arrive in lower Michigan within a few hours. As expected, these storms continue to evolve into a MCS/squall line with a projected time of arrival into West Michigan around 4 to 6am.

This will largely be a game of monitoring our environment to estimate the persistence of storms and whether they decay or prevail. Within the Enhanced Risk upstream of lower Michigan, these storms are thriving and will evolve in an environment with 3000- 5000J/kg MUCAPE and 50+ knots of Bulk Shear. As the surface low progresses further east, warm and moist advection will surge ahead of the storms supporting some ongoing strength. We will not be as unstable as areas to our west, but a favorable kinematic environment will support ongoing convection as storms move onshore and progress east through mid morning. Storms will gradually enter a weakening stage the further east they progress into lower Michigan. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern as storms move onshore this morning, but some hail may also occur.

- Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon

The potential for thunderstorms or new convection late tonight will be dependent on evolution of storms this morning. That is to say, wherever the frontal boundary sets up is where the best chance for renewed convection will occur. The strong low- level jet will weaken as it pivots further south late this morning to early afternoon, but instability rebounds and may support the risk for renewed thunderstorms with a damaging wind gust and hail potential. The main threat area will be near and south of I-96.

- Additional Showers Early Wednesday

Another trough and cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday morning bringing chance for showers during the first half of the day. High pressure will fill in during the second half of the day and into Thursday.

- Fair weather Thursday then showers and storms Friday/Saturday

The flow regime across the Great Lakes this week into next week features an enhanced belt of westerlies across the northern CONUS in between subtropical ridging across the southern CONUS and an upper low across central Canada. Occasional shortwave troughs embedded in the flow will bring rain chances every couple of days from this weekend into early next week.

Surface high pressure brings fine summer weather for Thursday into early Friday before moving east with warm advection pattern developing by Friday morning. Moisture advection is also increasing with rain chances by Friday morning as moisture pools ahead of the the next trough. THere remains some ensemble spread on timing and and depth of the trough but the consensus has the greatest chance for showers and storms for late Friday night.

A severe weather threat is possible late Friday night into early Saturday as Lower Michigan is in the warm sector and model soundings show 30 to 35 knots of shear ahead of the cold front.

Surface high builds in behind the front with fair weather for Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 740 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Squall line with downburst winds in the 40 to 50 knot range moving through AZO, BTL, LAN and JXN through 13Z then lingering showers and thunderstorms through about 14-15Z. Wind directions and speeds will be highly variable this morning due to the effects of thunderstorm outflows and lingering effects of the cold pool of air left in the wake of the storms. General winds from the southwest and west will be established by this afternoon.

Areas of IFR in the lines of storms across southern Lower Michigan will move out and give way to VFR conditions by late morning into the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Strong winds will continue in the wake of the exiting system and will keep winds and waves dangerous to small craft and swimmers through the day. Rapidly changing lake fluctuations will also create rip currents that will be dangerous to swimmers. Additional showers and storms possible this afternoon into the evening, and again Wednesday morning.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 38 mi43 minSSE 15G18 74°F
45168 41 mi33 minSSW 16G21 73°F 72°F2 ft29.7766°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi45 minSSE 16G20 73°F 72°F29.7367°F


Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAZO KALAMAZOO/BATTLE CREEK INTL,MI 7 sm39 minSSE 0810 smPartly Cloudy73°F66°F78%29.82
KBTL BATTLE CREEK EXECUTIVE AT KELLOGG FIELD,MI 17 sm39 minSSW 1110 smPartly Cloudy72°F64°F78%29.84
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Wind History graph: AZO
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Tide / Current for
   
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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,




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