Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday December 7, 2019 4:59 AM EST (09:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0062.000000t0000z-191027t1045z/ 633 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. However, gusty winds to 30 knots will persist. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4292 8246 4282 8248 4276 8247 4262 8251 4259 8254 4270 8264 4269 8260 4266 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4322 8256 4341 8259 4343 8255 4343 8220 time...mot...loc 1030z 264deg 39kt 4320 8228 4239 8143
LCZ422 Expires:201910271042;;929996 FZUS73 KDTX 271033 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 633 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-271042-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park city, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 070857 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

DISCUSSION.

Cool northwest flow aloft will usher in a minor shortwave across the northern Great Lakes with little consequence to southeast Michigan this morning. Expecting a quiet day today under the influence of a surface high pressure and an overall dry airmass. Low stratus from yesterday have relinquished their hold over the area, but mid/high clouds are now moving in association with warm air advection aloft. Southerly return flow will kick in as the surface high moves into the eastern Ohio Valley towards the late afternoon. This may bring some breaks in clouds later today as flow tries to draw them to the north. Low level warm advection will commence too late in the day to see a response in daytime highs which will hold in the 30s.

Strengthening low level 40-50 knot jet will help advect warm/moist air into the area on Sunday. An increase in 850 mb temperatures to around 2C by 12Z Sunday morning that will support high temperatures in the 40s. Tightening pressure gradient between high pressure off the east coast and troughing across Ontario will bring an uptick in southerly winds with gusts to around 20-30 mph by late Sunday morning and afternoon. A frontal boundary will be sagging southward and and eventually become stationary. This will become the focus for convection later in the day Sunday into Monday when a low pressure system develops near the left exit region of the 130 kt southern stream jet and moves northeastward along this frontal and through Michigan. The track of the low keeps southeast Michigan on the warm side with another day of mostly 40s to possibly 50 degrees towards the MI/OH border for Mondays high temperatures. This means that low level thermal profiles will be warm enough for p-type to fall as rain through most of Monday. Chances for lighter precipitation will start Sunday evening with bulk of precipitation falling early Monday morning and afternoon. Cold air will begin filtering into Michigan Monday night as the low lifts into Quebec bringing potential for a transition from rain to snow with any lingering precipitation on the back side of the system or from lake enhanced precipitation under cold low level northwest flow. Thermal trough then sets up for the mid-week period bringing arctic air to the Great Lakes along with opportunities for lake effect snow. Temperatures at 850 mb will drop to around -20C by Wednesday afternoon bringing high temperatures down into the teens and low 20s. The coldest morning of the week will be Thursday morning with lows in the lower teens and wind chills dropping into the single digits.

High pressure will be passing through the Michigan and to the east during the day on Thursday turning low level winds to the southwest. This will help drive the arctic airmass out of the region towards the end of the work week. This will then bring gradual warmup back into the 30s by Friday. Conditions remain mostly dry until the weekend when the next low pressure system lifts out of the Gulf and across the eastern Ohio Valley potentially bringing the next chance at impactful weather to southeast Michigan.

MARINE.

High pressure builds into the southern Great Lakes early this morning. The high will be quick to depart to the east by Sunday evening while a cold front begins to sink into the northwestern Great Lakes. The result will be a strengthening southwesterly gradient over the region today. Developing low pressure over southern Ontario will lead to increased warm advection which will result in a stable profile over the cool water, but a strong low- level jet and long southwesterly fetch will bring the potential for gusts to gale force over northern and central Lake Huron for much of Sunday. A Gale Watch has been issued for this area. Another low pressure system then tracks through the region on Monday evening, bringing widespread rain for most of the area and snow for northern Lake Huron. This system will usher in a much cooler air mass and unsettled conditions for the early part of next week.

HYDROLOGY.

Next chance for an extended period of rainfall will start Sunday evening and continue through Monday. Increased moisture transport will bring PWAT values nearing 0.8 inches into southeast Michigan as a low pressure system moves across Michigan. Rainfall totals will range mostly between a quarter of an inch to a half inch. Higher totals will be possible if any training of heavier rainfall occurs over any location. A transition to wintry mix will be possible if any precipitation lingers long enough after the system passes off to the northeast. Rainfall may lead to ponding of water in low-lying areas and small rises on area rivers.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

AVIATION .

Cold cyclonic flow will remain over Lower Michigan through tonight with composite longwave trough in place over far eastern North America. Differential anticyclonic vorticity advection with rising geopotential heights supports increasing high pressure over the region. Satellite trends show steady erosion of lower cloud stratus through the course of the evening. High cloud will move into the state on Saturday in response to increasing warm air advection aloft and remnant shortwave passing from the Dakotas down through the Great Lakes. VFR conditions. Low confidence in any MVFR boundary layer cloud for Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs aob 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ421-422- 441-442.

Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for LHZ362- 363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . AA AVIATION . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi60 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 26°F 1028.8 hPa (+0.4)
AGCM4 29 mi66 min 26°F 40°F1027.8 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi60 min N 8.9 G 9.9 29°F
TWCO1 47 mi40 min N 6 G 8.9
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi60 min N 6 G 7 30°F 1029.1 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi67 minNW 310.00 miFair26°F15°F63%1029.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi65 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy26°F17°F68%1028.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi2.1 hrsWNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds25°F17°F73%1029 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi65 minNNW 310.00 miFair26°F17°F71%1028.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi67 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F16°F66%1029.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7W5NW11
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N9NW7
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N6NW6NW4NW4NW4CalmNW3Calm
1 day agoW9W5W6W5NW10
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W5W6CalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE4S4S5S5SW6SW6SW8SW7
2 days agoSW7SW7W6W7W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.