Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:33PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 10:31 AM EST (15:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:11AMMoonset 2:39PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0067.000000t0000z-191230t1300z/ 754 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 800 am est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The showers have moved out of the area. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4236 8286 4239 8294 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4302 8244 4297 8241 time...mot...loc 1254z 216deg 43kt 4352 8232 4307 8173
LCZ422 Expires:201912301304;;156663 FZUS73 KDTX 301254 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ422-460-301304-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park city, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 211102 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 602 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

AVIATION.

A weak low-level wind field will gain a little strength this morning before backing slowly to the west. Expect the MVFR stratus deck to hold for an hour or two beyond daybreak before temporarily scattering out for the early afternoon hours. Recent soundings have increased confidence in bringing MVFR cigs back again this evening as shallow lake effect moisture advects more efficiently into the airspace off the coast of western lower Michigan. Coverage may be somewhat variable, but confidence is high enough to include prevailing MVFR mention at all terminals for the latter portion of the day. Chance for additional MVFR cigs returns for the overnight period.

For DTW . Low stratus deck will scatter-out mid-morning. Additional low stratus development becoming more probable again this evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings below 5000 ft this morning, then moderate for this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 257 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

DISCUSSION .

Another chilly day can be expected today as return southwest flow around high pressure centered to the south remains weak. While warm air advection will continue, the process will be rather slow today. In addition, low level temperatures look to be just cold enough, at least during the first part of the day, to maintain some moisture flux from Lake Michigan. This will slow the overall drying of low levels that will occur as very dry synoptic scale air mass works in the from the west. All told, would expect high temperatures to stall in the upper 20s to around 30 this afternoon with a gradual trend form mostly cloudy to party cloudy skies.

On Wednesday, upper ridging builds into the area between shortwave digging well south of the area and the next upper trough organizing over the central CONUS. Between the upper ridge and large surface high pressure centered to the south, anticipate a fair amount of sunshine. With this sunshine and a steadier south to southwest flow around the surface high, temperatures should moderate fairly well. That said, extensive snow cover, with a rather high albedo, should limit the warmup with high temperatures likely stalling in the mid 30s.

The upper ridge will shift east of the area and flatten out on the northern periphery as shortwave energy tracks across Ontario and clips the far northern Great Lakes. This feature will force a low level boundary south into the northern Great Lakes back southwest into the upper midwest (basically around the northwest edge of the ridging over the eastern CONUS by that time frame). This will bring at least a small chance of rain/snow showers to parts of the area by late Thursday/Thursday night, and even for locations that remain dry, expect extensive cloud cover. This will maintain temperatures in the mid/upper 30s despite the moderation in the overall air mass in place.

The aforementioned upper trough over the central CONUS evolves into an upper low pressure system late Thursday into Friday as Pacific shortwave energy rounds western NOAM upper ridging and digs into the plains. This system translates eastward through the southern Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. ECMWF has remained far enough north to impact the area with deformation from this system with other 00z models also continuing to support this scenario. While the system is not tied into the northern stream, residual cold air does settle south through the region late this weak as the stalled frontal boundary positioned just northwest of the region washes out with time.

This will make for an interesting precipitation type scenario as both rain/snow will be possible. That said, trends suggest that a fair amount of the precipitation will fall as wet snow, and with a slightly faster start time late Friday into Friday night, diurnal considerations would support a better chance of some accumulations. This will be aided by the at least modest precipitation rates that look more likely now that model consensus suggests the area of deformation will impact the region for a fairly extended period from Friday evening into Saturday morning.

With the northern stream still largely cutoff from the region, not much cold air settles in behind this system as it exits to the east Saturday night. So, temperatures basically remain unchanged from the weekend into early next week as highs average in the mid/upper 30s and lows dip into the 20s to around 30. Precipitation, if any, will be very transient beyond Saturday/Saturday night as only weak shortwave energy is expected to clip the area once the shortwave ridge in the immediate wake of the Friday/Saturday system settles southeast of the region.

MARINE .

A broad surface high pressure system will continue to fill in across the Ohio Valley today, with a moderate pressure gradient building in across Lake Huron in response to the advancing high pressure. Gusts on the order of 20 to 25 knots to hold across Lake Huron, mainly northern and central zones, as winds back to southwest. Gusts around 25 knots to hold across Lake Huron late Tuesday through Wednesday as the moderate pressure gradient fails to budge through the midweek period. No active weather in the forecast until at earliest Wednesday night.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi32 min W 6 G 9.9 22°F 1035.9 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 29 mi44 min 21°F 33°F1034.8 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi162 min WNW 9.9 G 12 23°F
TWCO1 47 mi22 min NW 12 G 15
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi32 min W 13 G 15 24°F 1037 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi39 minW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy22°F12°F66%1063.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi36 minSW 710.00 miFair22°F12°F69%1035.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi96 minWNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy20°F11°F71%1036.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi36 minW 610.00 miOvercast22°F11°F64%1035.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi39 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy22°F12°F66%1037.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NW8N5N6N8NW5NW6NW5N6NW4NW5CalmCalmW4CalmW3NW3NW4NW5NW8W8NW4W6W8
1 day agoW11
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6NW7NW8NW5NW6NW8NW6NW6NW6NW7NW5NW5NW5NW5NW6NW5NW4NW5N4N6
2 days agoS12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.