Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxford, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Behind a departing clipper system, lake effect snow showers are expected today, especially across the southern Tug Hill.

2) A strong low pressure system will move into the region early next week, bringing another large swing in temperatures, strong winds, and showers and thunderstorms.

3) Below normal temperatures will return for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the departing low pressure system, along with lake effect snow showers. This will be followed by seasonable temperatures to close out the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Behind the clipper system that impacted the region yesterday, 850mb temperatures have dropped to -10C to -12C. This, combined with a westerly flow has resulted in lake effect snow showers.
While the most persistent snow is across northern Oneida County (where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect), a few brief heavier snow showers are located elsewhere in Central NY and even the Northern Tier of PA.

High pressure will build into the area late this afternoon, which will end the lake effect snow and bring gradual clearing skies from south to north. Highs today are expected to be in the lower 30s to mid 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A very strong low pressure system will develop in the central US on Sunday. A warm front will surge into the Northeast Sunday into Monday, with strong southerly flow pushing temperatures into the 60s on Monday. The low is currently progged to deepen to near 980mb as it moves into the Great Lakes, which is about 35mb deeper than average for this time of year. A strong low level jet will form in the warm sector of the low over NY and PA. A slight stable layer will likely keep the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface, but a slight warmup in the boundary layer would bring strong, gusty winds to the area.
This could be especially prevalent in the Finger Lakes where downsloping from the Southern Tier could push wind gusts into the 40-50mph range Sunday afternoon into Monday.

With the warm temperatures and a strong cold front moving through the area Monday afternoon, there is a chance for a line of strong showers to potentially a few isolated severe thunderstorms to develop. Shear will be very high ahead of the front, likely 60 to 80 knots of 0-6 km shear, though overall CAPE will be low. Much of the QPF is currently behind the front, so anafrontal snow is expected to develop Monday night, followed by some lake effect snow on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

An anomalously cold air mass moves in behind the strong low pressure system. 850 mb temperatures between -15C to -18C are expected Tuesday and Wednesday over Lake Ontario. This would kick off late season lake effect snow showers through most of the region. With the increasing strength of solar radiation as we continue to progress through spring, diurnally driven convective snow showers should develop in the afternoons of Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures on Tuesday will likely be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, with a slight warm-up Wednesday into the upper 20s to upper 30s. Then temperatures return to more seasonable levels for Thursday and Friday with highs expected to be mainly in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The heaviest of the snow is through the region early this morning but lake effect snow showers will persist for much of the morning at CNY terminals. A batch of snow showers is headed towards AVP and should move through between 6Z and 8Z so a tempo was added but otherwise AVP is expected to be VFR and windy.
Snow showers persist longer at BGM, ITH, and ELM but diminish in coverage after sunrise around 12Z. Lake effect snow last the longest at SYR and RME as is typical, and there is the best chance at IFR or worse with the snow from around 9Z to about 16Z and taper off thereafter. Winds remain strong out of the west and northwest from about 9Z through sunset around 0Z before winds diminish quickly.

Outlook:

Saturday Night and Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions expected in rain, thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Scattered snow showers with occasional restrictions possible, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ038-043.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ039-040-044- 047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ009.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ015>017- 022>025.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ018-036-037- 044>046-055>057-062.