Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxford, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Arctic high pressure settles across the area tonight, then gives way to a weak wave late Tuesday, ahead of a stronger inbound clipper.

Northerly low level flow has advected in an Arctic air mass, though brisk zonal flow continues aloft which is zipping some high thin clouds through the area this afternoon. However, late evening most of the area will get into a clear sky with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Models typically struggle to go cold enough in these situations, especially where snowpack exists. In coordination with other NWS offices we have skewed temperatures towards the lowest end of model guidance for lows mostly in the single digits above and below zero. The subzero readings will be most common in our NY zones east of I-81.
Luckily the wind will go near calm which will prevent wind chills from being much colder than the air temperatures. Daily records are in the low single digits above zero for Binghamton and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, which will approached, but the Syracuse record well below zero will be out of reach.

Though much of Tuesday will generally be dry and chilly, a weakening short wave will zip across the region Tuesday afternoon-evening, with a lobe of moisture aloft yet a lot of dry air underneath. This may yield flurries as far south as the Twin Tiers, a light coating to an inch north of Cortland- Norwich to the NY Thruway corridor, and 2-3 inches or so for the northern half of Oneida County into Tuesday night. The primary snow potential though will occur just after.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A potent clipper system will move through the region Wednesday- Wednesday night, followed by another cold surge with lake effect snow and potential scattered squalls Thursday.

A deepening surface low will zip over from the Upper Midwest, with warm air advection aloft ahead of it causing a quick thump of accumulating snow on the front end of the clipper. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for northern Oneida County where heavier snow totals are possible through Wednesday night, but it should be noted that almost our entire area should get at least a shot of accumulating snow Wednesday morning to midday, before rain mixes in at lower elevations in the afternoon in the warm sector of the system. Upslope-favored areas, generally the higher terrain of Twin Tiers northward and especially east of I-81, will be favored for up to a quick few inches of snow Wednesday morning through midday which could cause slick roadways whether or not reaching Advisory thresholds.
Temperatures eventually hit mid to upper 30s which will compress/melt much of what falls. However, upslope enhancement will especially occur towards the Tug Hill and temperatures will remain cold enough for almost all snow. As the clipper passes, west- northwest flow will then inject lake moisture as well, so we are forecasting 5-12 inches in northern Oneida County total which is why the Watch has already been issued. It is possible that Advisories may be needed for some other parts of the area.

On Thursday, gusty cold air advection will occur as another Arctic surge descends over the region. Steep low level lapse rates, with a moisture layer centered at dendritic growth temperatures, suggest that we make get scattered snow squalls as far south as the Twin Tiers, and more numerous and/or banded streamers over Central New York. This will probably continue into Thursday night. Snow amounts overall specifically on Thursday- Thursday night may not be that high, but it could still be quite impactful because of the squally nature of it including blowing and drifting.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Our weather pattern will remain on the cold and busy side going through next weekend.

Models show potential for yet another clipper system, with the warm air advection side late Friday-early Saturday followed by a cold shot in the second half of the weekend. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the track and details of this system, but temperatures support all snow as a precipitation type. Anyone with travel plans will need to continue monitoring the forecast and be prepared for potential winter travel conditions at times.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place at all terminals through the TAF period as high pressure builds in today and becomes centered overhead tonight into Tuesday. Clouds will move in and gradually lower later Tuesday with some flurries or very light snow not out of the question but any restrictions should hold off till after 00Z Wednesday.

Winds will generally be out of the north today at 5-10 knots before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds then turn southerly on Tuesday, reaching 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night...Restrictions possible at times in scattered snow showers; especially NY terminals.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system approaches the region with snow and some rain showers mixing in.

Thursday Through Saturday...Restrictions possible with snow showers and possible squalls in the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for NYZ009.