Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxford, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Only minor changes with the evening updates including additional mention of patchy fog. Forecast discussion below on track.

340 PM Update...

Stationary front placed over the Mid-Atlantic along with a weak surface high north of our region keeps conditions mostly dry over our region. Although a few weak isolated showers may pop up this afternoon with lingering surface moisture. Otherwise clouds are expected to persist over most of the region with temperatures only climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s. Shower chances diminish in the evening as the shortwave centered over the Mid-Atlantic driving them moves east of the area. Mostly dry conditions are expected overnight with temperatures in the 50s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s as well, fog may develop across the region.

Winds shift easterly by Monday morning with a marine layer moves into the region as the frontal boundary pushes south. Some CAMs are showing isolated rain showers developing, but the influence of high pressure and a mid level inversion should again keep conditions mostly dry. Cloudy skies continue with slightly warmer temperatures in the afternoon. Highs will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
250 PM Update:

A shortwave will bring another chance of showers Tuesday, especially during the afternoon. However, instability looks very limited at this time due to extensive cloud cover, so thunder was left out of the forecast for now. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Wednesday will be the start of a warm-up as a warm front pushes northward through the area. Scattered showers are again expected with this front, and perhaps a few thunderstorms (mainly during the afternoon). Highs are expected to be in the 80s for the majority of the area, with dewpoints rising into upper 60s to perhaps near 70. This will result in noticeably more humid conditions as well.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
250 PM Update:

A cold front moves through the area on Thursday, which will bring a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Depending on the timing of the front, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday with around 1500 J/kg of CAPE possible and 40-50kts of shear. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well with PWATs around, or a bit over 1.75". This is still several days away, so a lot of uncertainty remains, but Thursday will definitely need to be watched. Highs on Thursday are currently expected to be in the lower 80s to near 90 degrees, but this will also depend on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms and the timing of the cold front.

Behind the cold front, cooler conditions will be present for Friday with highs in the 70s. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible, but overall coverage should be much less than Thursday.

A pattern shift then starts to take shape next weekend (especially just beyond the long term period/towards Sunday) as a deepening trough across the Western U.S will allow for a ridge to build in across the Eastern U.S. This will likely result in a more lengthy period of very warm temperatures and potentially drier weather. Before that occurs, a wave going around the periphery of the building ridge may bring some scattered showers or thunderstorms on Saturday. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, before even warmer temperatures move in for Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Overall dry conditions are expected overnight with high pressure located north/east of our region. A frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic will keep a blanket of stratus clouds over the region with MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings expected overnight.
RME and SYR are further from the boundaries influence and are expected to remain VFR.

Fog may develop tonight as temperatures and dewpoints fall into the upper 50s with light winds. ELM/ITH/BGM have the best chances for IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in isolated to scattered showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional restrictions likely.

Friday...Possible VFR conditions as high pressure attempts to build into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.