Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxford, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Temperatures get closer to normal. Weak clipper passage expected Tuesday.

2) Lake Effect snow showers Tuesday night into Thursday.
Precipitation chances increasing later for the latter half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Quite the contrast in temperatures between cloudy and clear areas with morning temperatures ranging from from 0 to -15F this morning. Temperatures should quickly rise given high pressure over the region. Winds will be much lower too as a result. The cold weather advisory still looks to go till mid-morning with highs fairly close to 20 for most of us.

A warm frontal boundary will swing through the region Tuesday as a clipper system tracks to the north. Enough lift and moisture looks present to generate a period of light snow in CNY. Terrain induced maximum snowfall of a few inches in Oneida county is still expected with lower amounts further south.

The Binghamton Airport has seen 16 days in a row with temperatures below 32 degrees and Tuesday will have a chance to finally climb above freezing, but the current forecast low for Tuesday here at the airport is 32F, so it is going to be close.

The warm frontal passage looks to push through a 850 mb warm nose as well into the region. This introduces the potential for lingering spotty precipitation to be in the form of light rain or freezing rain/drizzle for a few hours Tuesday afternoon and evening. Given the cold ground temperatures some minor/trace accumulations could occur, even at 33-34F.

Deeper moisture and colder temperatures comes into the sounding profiles by late evening with a change back to snow showers from lake effect.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

North to northwest flow behind the clipper Tuesday night through Thursday should lead to more clouds and snow showers off of Lake Ontario and possibly the Finger Lakes. A little synoptic moisture may get wrapped around as well Wednesday. Snow ratios should climb as well from a marginal 8-10:1 from the clipper to a more favorable 20:1 or so. With that said, a few additional inches of lake effect is entirely possible. Inverted V soundings also show the potential for some gusty winds as well in this timeframe. The Tuesday warmup looks to be short lived with generally 10's and 20's behind the clipper.

Ensemble guidance is keying on another system Sunday tracking toward the region from the South or Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances are coming up, but temperatures may be more marginal for rain/snow compared to just snow. Quite a bit of variability in operational models so it is too early to key in on one solution at this time.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Lingering MVFR ceilings should lift by 15Z. VFR with light winds through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday... IFR/LIFR restrictions from snow likely Tuesday at KSYR and KRME. Spotty light precipitation further south with restrictions possible.

Tuesday night through Friday... Some additional IFR/MVFR restrictions possible from snow showers in CNY.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.