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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chelsea, MA

June 25, 2024 1:57 PM EDT (17:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 11:31 PM   Moonset 8:49 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 103 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2024

This afternoon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.

Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.

Thu - W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.

Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.

Fri through Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

Sat night - S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 103 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres builds S of the waters today. The next cold front moves E from the great lakes Wed, with strong sw winds and building seas ahead of it. This cold front crosses new england and the waters late Wed night and Thu. High pres builds over the waters Fri into Sat. Another cold front should cross the waters sometime late Sun into Sun night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chelsea, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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467 FXUS61 KBOX 251751 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Although we will see an increase in cloud cover tonight, dry weather and southwest breezes are expected. Increasing humidity levels for Wednesday, with a risk for showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon into the evening. Some storms could turn strong Wednesday afternoon and evening. Drier weather for late in the week along with decreasing humidity levels. However we enter a warming trend into the weekend, which will also increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
150 PM Update:

Pleasant afternoon across Southern New England this afternoon under influence of surface ridge of high pressure. Temperatures at this hour are in the 80s for most, with mid to upper 80s being common over the interior. Northerly breezes and tolerable levels of humidity (e.g. dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60)
are accompanying this summer warmth, so all in all, hard to find much fault in the weather today. Well to the west over the eastern Gt Lakes/far western NY, day cloud phase satellite imagery shows quite a plume of mid to high level cloud cover within a seasonably strong belt of westerly flow aloft. This is associated with a re-organizing cluster of strong thunderstorms over OH and Lower MI; while this active area of thunderstorms will remain over OH and PA well to our west with high confidence, its associated shield of mid and high cloud cover will be overspreading our area for the evening and overnight.

So for tonight...expect winds to gradually shift from a WNW direction to a WSW/SWly one around 10 mph. With that windshift will bring the aforementioned shield of mid and high level cloud cover that is over the eastern Gt Lakes region. Despite high res guidance insisting otherwise, this guidance is too bullish in showing any rain with this shield of cloud cover as it is (1)
too high in the sky to generate any precipitation and (2) quite dry in the lowest few thousand feet AGL to support precip. So really just expecting an increase in midlevel cloud cover but looking for dry weather for the balance of the evening and overnight. It will however start to bring humidity levels back up some with dewpoints in the lower 60s by daybreak Wed, but still fairly tolerable overall. Sided lows toward the milder end of guidance since SW winds should stay up all night and the advancing canopy of midlevel cloud cover should mitigate much radiational cooling. Opted for lows in the mid 60s, with upper 60s/around 70 possible in the urban areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
Highlights

* Still fairly quiet tonight into early Wed. Though there could be a few decaying spot showers across the interior tonight.

* Hot and muggy on Wed. Will have late day thunderstorms.
Isolated severe risk possible with the main threats of damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, which could lead to localized flooding.

Pattern becomes quasi-zonal during this timeframe. The MCs/shortwave over the eastern Great Lakes will lift through New England tonight. A more substantial trough (and our next weather maker) will dig from the Northern Plains tonight into the western/central Great Lakes by mid Wed. The trough lifts into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wed. A warm front lifts into and through much of southern New England tonight. The trailing cold front slides in later on Wed.

Next shot for potentially impactful weather comes later on Wed where we could have some isolated strong to severe storms. This is the main focus of the short term. Though will note that did put in slight chances of a few spotty showers tonight across the interior as the warm front is moving through. For most should be dry tonight, but with mid/high clouds overhead.

Since previous update it appears that guidance continues the trend of bringing the cold front in slower. This generally keeps our weather dry for much of the day, but there is an increasing risk for showers/storms during the afternoon/evening.
Will see instability values increasing to roughly a few hundred to 1500 J/kg across. Appears at this point that would be maximized across CT and portions of the interior. Will see deep shear in the 0-6 km layer increase to 30-40+ kts, which is more than sufficient for organized thunderstorm development. Some uncertainty on timing a potential EML as some pieces of guidance showing 6-8 degree mid level lapse rates overhead during the afternoon, while low level lapse rates are roughly 7-9 degrees.
The big questions at this point are we are somewhat removed from the stronger upper forcing, mid level moisture may be lacking a bit and there could be a bit of a cap to break per Bufkit soundings. Though some pieces of guidance do bring in 1.5+ inch PWATs into the afternoon/early evening, but most showing more impacts for our area Wed Night. With this all said and taking into the account the ML guidance. There are signals for strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts along with heavy downpours, which if they fall over the wrong spots could produce localized flooding. Think at this point the latest SPC Marginal Risk for Severe Weather in Day 2 and WPC Marginal Risk for Excessive Rain is fine. The HRRR does show some low probs with 3-hourly PMM of 3 hr QPF greater than 3 inches late on Wed across portions of western MA/CT. This is also the area where ML guidance (CSU ML and NCAR HRRR Neural Network) indicating greatest risk for stronger storms in our area. Stay tuned for future updates on this risk.

Given the increasing S to SWly flow ahead of the cold front will see oppressive dew points spreading in as we get well into the 60s for much of the region. Will also be quite warm with temps ranging from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Should see those warmest readings across the CT/Merrimack Valley. Though it will be muggy, we fall well short of Heat Advisory criteria at this time. Still will be a good idea to take typical summertime precautions of staying hydrated and cool.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights:

* Couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during this portion of the forecast.

* Expecting temperatures to fluctuate between near normal and above normal.

* Becoming less humid late this week into Saturday, before briefly becoming very humid Sunday. Trending less humid early next week.

Looking like our region will be contending with leftover convection Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest guidance communicated a mixed message. While there are some ingredients to support stronger thunderstorms, they may not all be in place at the proper time. For example, the peak mid level lapse rates and shear may not quite line up with the peak instability. Will need to monitor the details and adjust over the next day or so.
Current thinking is the most likely outcome will be diminishing/weakening convection across most of southern New England as it moves east Wednesday night. The steeper than moist- adiabatic mid level lapse rates may sustain a few stronger thunderstorms past sunset.

The cold front helping to trigger these showers and thunderstorms should still be somewhere across southern New England Thursday morning, thus still a lingering risk for some showers. These would be most likely across RI and eastern MA. Once this front finally moves offshore, we should be looking at less humid conditions arriving for Friday.

Drier conditions should last until another cold front approaches from the west sometime Sunday. Still too early to pin down the details. In general terms though, thinking our region gets into a brief period of very warm and humid conditions, but not like the heat we had last week. It should certainly not last nearly as long.
Expecting cooler and less humid air to arrive early next week.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through 00z Wednesday: High confidence.

VFR. WNW winds around 10 kt to begin a gradual turn/backing to WSW/SW through late-aftn. Still a window for a seabreeze on the eastern MA coast between 18-20z but indicated TEMPO for this potential.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR, although with an increasing canopy of mid to high clouds (at/above 11kft) tonight. SW winds around 7-10 kt.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: High confidence in the morning, then becomes moderate for the afternoon/evening.

VFR with SW winds around 10-12 kt (gusts 23-27 kt) during the morning to at least the early aftn. Scattered t-storms are still anticipated, better shot along/south of I-90, but the timing is uncertain. Storms could begin in the 18-21z timeframe but seem more likely after 21z and into the evening hours. Some storms could be strong, especially if they develop on the earlier end of that timing window. SW winds ease to around 5-10 kt for the evening while shifting a bit to W late.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF, though moderate on sea-breeze development. VFR for much of the TAF period. WNW winds arounhd 10 kt to start, though may slacken enough in the 18-20z window for a possible seabreeze. By late-aftn, winds shift to SW/WSW around 10 kt. Possible TS after 21z Wed but timing is still uncertain.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR for most of the TAF period. Winds to become SW around 10 kt this aftn/tonight with increasing covg of mid/high clouds. Possible TS after 18z Wed though timing is still uncertain.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters through Wed evening. Though seas/winds will fall below SCA conditions late today into this evening, they will redevelop tonight into Wed with a strong SWly low level jet sliding in.

Hoisted Small Craft Advisory for the rest of the southern waters and Cape Cod Bay due to the strong SWly low level jet previously mentioned moving in late tonight into Wed.

Today...High confidence.

Winds shifting from the NW to the W/WSW as the day progresses.
Winds will be increasing this afternoon into the evening to 10-15 kts with some 20-25 kt gusts. Seas diminishing to 2-4 ft.

Tonight...High confidence.

Increasing SW to SSW winds with gusts of 20-30 kts. Seas building 3-6 ft across the southern and eastern outer waters.

Wednesday...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the SW/SSW at 15-25 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts. Seas 4-6 ft across the southern waters and eastern outer waters. Scattered thunderstorms could spread into the waters late in the afternoon/evening.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 1 mi58 min 86°F 29.79
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 22 mi88 minWSW 3.9G5.8 68°F 65°F29.8262°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 28 mi114 minWSW 5.8G5.8 68°F 64°F2 ft29.81
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 43 mi58 minN 11G17 86°F 65°F29.83
PVDR1 44 mi58 minNW 8G15 86°F 29.8456°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi58 minNW 5.1G6 85°F 29.83
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi58 min 86°F 71°F29.84
FRXM3 47 mi58 min 83°F 56°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 47 mi58 minW 2.9G4.1 77°F 29.7551°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 48 mi58 minWNW 8G8.9 81°F 73°F29.83
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi108 min 60°F2 ft
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 49 mi73 minW 4.1 84°F 29.8061°F


Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: BOS
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Tide / Current for Charles River Dam, Charles River, Massachusetts
   
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Charles River Dam
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Tue -- 02:09 AM EDT     11.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     9.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Charles River Dam, Charles River, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
8.3
1
am
10.1
2
am
11
3
am
10.5
4
am
8.9
5
am
6.5
6
am
3.8
7
am
1.3
8
am
-0.3
9
am
-0.5
10
am
0.8
11
am
2.9
12
pm
5.2
1
pm
7.5
2
pm
9.1
3
pm
9.6
4
pm
8.9
5
pm
7.2
6
pm
5
7
pm
2.9
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
0.7
10
pm
1.7
11
pm
3.8


Tide / Current for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
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Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:50 AM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:07 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
1
1
am
0.5
2
am
-0.2
3
am
-0.7
4
am
-1.1
5
am
-1.2
6
am
-1.1
7
am
-1
8
am
-0.5
9
am
0.4
10
am
1.1
11
am
1.2
12
pm
1.1
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
-0.4
4
pm
-0.8
5
pm
-1
6
pm
-1
7
pm
-0.9
8
pm
-0.6
9
pm
0.1
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
1.2


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Boston, MA,




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