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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 022334 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 634 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023


AVIATION

There will be a slight backing of the low level flow toward the east this evening. This will drive a little higher low level moisture back into Se Mi, especially around metro Detroit. The result will be a lowering of the cloud bases back down to IFR (aside from mbS). A strengthening upper level short wave and associated surface low will lift across Lower Mi on Sunday. Additional low level moisture in advance of this system will push cloud bases a little lower by late Sun morning, with LIFR conditions becoming more probable. Given the early December sun angle, these low cloud bases should persist through the afternoon. This system will also spread rain across the region from late morning through late afternoon on Sunday.

For DTW...Upstream trends certainly suggest ceilings will lower back into the IFR category later this evening. Based on the latest RAP, the current forecast of bringing this lower deck back in at 03Z still looks reasonable. A prevailing IFR deck will then persist through the overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Sunday.

* High in precip type remaining as all rain on Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

DISCUSSION...

Remaining isolated/widely scattered light showers will end this afternoon with dry weather holding through the evening into the overnight. Cloudy skies will persist though so overnight minimum temperatures will remain relatively mild, holding largely in the middle to upper 30s.

Precipitation will then expand back into the area as low pressure tracks into Lower Michigan on Sunday. This system is currently in the developmental stage as shortwave energy ejects eastward through the central plains today. Showers will begin to work into the area early Sunday morning, but most of the activity will occur during the daytime hours. Given the mild airmass in place and the fact that the upper wave tracks right over the area, expect a majority of the precipitation to fall as rain again with perhaps some snow mixed in primarily over the Saginaw Valley. Little to no accumulations are expected as highs will reach the upper 30s over this sector while the remainder of the forecast area climbs into the lower-mid 40s.

Lingering scattered rain/snow showers Sunday evening will end before midnight with dry weather holding into Monday evening. Temperatures will be a bit colder as upper level troughing expands over the area with highs back into the 30s to around 40 Monday and lows into the 20s Monday night.

A clipper low pressure system will then track into the Great Lakes on Tuesday with rain and/or snow working into the area late Monday night and continuing through the day Tuesday. The overall airmass will be colder by this time frame (H85 temperatures approaching - 5C), but still marginal for any meaningful snowfall as temperatures generally rise into the mid/upper 30s during the day. So, while the areal coverage of snow -vs rain will be more substantial, potential for accumulation remains muted.

This passing shortwave will briefly amplify the mean upper trough over the area and lead to relatively cool temperatures through the middle of next week. However, the overall upper level pattern will become rather progressive with this deeper upper trough shifting east late in the week with upper ridging expanding east to replace it. This will lead to moderating conditions will temperatures back well into the 40s if not 50 degrees by the end of next week. The precipitation chances after Tuesday will remain rather minor and will mainly result from this impending milder airmass overrunning the cooler air in place in the mid/late week period.

MARINE...

With the departure of low pressure, winds gradually weaken and turn easterly through the night. This quiet period will be extremely brief as another developing low is set to arrive Sunday again tracking over the southern Great Lakes. Tightening gradient in advance of this system leads to a rapid uptick in easterly winds particularly over the northern portion of Lake Huron where peak gusts between 20-25kts are expected through much of daytime Sunday.
System brings generally rain showers though some snow mixing in is possible over the northern half of the region. Low vacates the area by Sunday night setting up only modest (sub 20kt) northwesterly flow in its wake for Monday. While flow direction favors building waves around the tip of the Thumb, waves currently look to hold just below small craft criteria. Active pattern continues through the next work week as a series of weak systems swing across the Great Lakes. At this point however marine impacts look to be minor with main impact repeated shots for rain-snow showers. Lack of significant cold air and weaker gradient with these systems not supportive of strong winds/subsequent headlines.

HYDROLOGY...

Another round of primarily rainfall will bring up to one quarter of an inch or rainfall to the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. No flooding concerns are expected at this time from this system.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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