Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Plymouth, MI

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 081708 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 108 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

AVIATION

Low level dry air will remain in place with light northerly (NE-NW)
winds into tomorrow. Mid clouds (10 kft) return for a period by early this evening. Modest surface visibility restrictions in HZ then expected tonight, per inherited/persistence forecast. There appears to be a touch more mid level moisture around tomorrow, so perhaps some 5-8 kft diurnal cloud development.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

DISCUSSION...

Broad, barotropic low pressure over the NE CONUS gradually weakens through the course of the day but maintains a steady feed of dry, relatively cool air into the area on a northerly wind. 850mb temps will reside in the single digits, supportive of high temps mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Expect an increase in clouds compared to the past few days as elevated moisture wraps around the low. May see a stray afternoon shower develop if the inbound lobe of PVA times favorably with any surface-based convergence, but overall dry conditions are again expected as there will be little ascent in the column and a dry boundary layer.

Wind trajectories will again be favorable for Canadian wildfire smoke to spread into the region from the north and northeast today.
An Air Quality Alert is in effect for all of Southeast Michigan due to elevated levels of fine particulate from the smoke. Recommend visiting airnow.gov and deqmiair.org for latest air quality conditions and forecast information. Local fire weather conditions will be less elevated today owing to higher dew points keeping min RH a touch higher than the past several days, as well as relatively weak winds and marginal temperatures. Fuels will however remain very to extremely dry, so be sure to follow state and local burning guidance or restrictions for your location.

Dry conditions again on Friday as the low retreats back to the east coast, giving way to strongly confluent mid-level flow paired with NVA to produce high static stability over the region. The thermal trough will dislodge and 850mb temps should rebound toward 10C, translating to high temps in the mid to upper 70s across the board.
Unfortunately, no reason at this point to believe the wildfire smoke/haze will be able to clear out given continued persistent northerly wind origin.

A much anticipated pattern shift begins in earnest by Saturday as an amplified shortwave trough drops southward out of central Canada into the northern Lakes. Shortwave ridging ahead of this trough will dominate local conditions much of the day, maintaining dry and stable thermodynamic profiles. Flow through the column backs to northwest/west and advects in a warmer air mass with 850mb temps in the mid teens C. A diabatic boost from a fair amount of June sunshine should bring high temps in the lower to mid 80s. Moisture will begin organizing upstream ahead of the surface front over the Midwest, but precip chances will be slim during the day as we sit between systems.

The aforementioned Canadian wave is expected to become cut off from the northern stream as it drops into the western Great Lakes on Sunday, deepening considerably through the early week as it slowly spins across the region before becoming incorporated into the subtropical jet. All signs currently point to a widespread beneficial rain some time between late Sunday and Monday when the resultant surface low swings northward from the Ohio Valley.
Latest 00z operational runs offer a respectable swath of QPF (1"+)
in the vicinity but vary considerably regarding its placement.
Showery unsettled conditions look to linger into Tuesday as the upper low passes overhead.

MARINE...

Quiet marine conditions continue through the end of the week as high pressure over the Hudson Bay area and low pressure situated off to the east hold steady. This will allow for a continuation of northerly flow down Lake Huron going through Thursday and into Friday. The pressure gradient will weaken as the high pressure settles in over the area resulting in lighter winds to round out the weekend. After a long stretch of quieter marine conditions, changes look to come this weekend with the potential for rain showers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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