Plymouth, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Plymouth, MI

June 24, 2024 10:10 AM EDT (14:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 9:16 PM
Moonrise 10:52 PM   Moonset 7:23 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0025.000000t0000z-240620t2300z/ 642 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
the Thunderstorm has weakened and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4189 8337 4195 8337 4196 8328 4202 8327 4205 8325 4204 8315 4203 8315 4199 8312 4196 8311 4196 8312 4184 8327 time - .mot - .loc 2241z 298deg 15kt 4191 8322

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 240917 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 517 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s today are right around normal for mid to late June leading to a pleasant day with low humidity.

- Showers and thunderstorms become active again early Tuesday morning. These storms are not expected to reach severe intensity but could produce locally heavy rainfall.

- An additional round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday, mainly south of I69. There is Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms during this time.

- Cooler and less humid air moves back into the area late Wednesday and lasts through Thursday.

AVIATION

Light northwest winds today with just a modest scattered VFR (4- 6kft) CU up expected. Low clouds dissipate by sunset, with light and variable winds during the evening giving way to increasing south- southwest winds tonight. Mid/high clouds will also be on the increase after midnight, with the potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms to arrive toward 12z Tuesday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a good chance for thunderstorms late Tuesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5kt today, medium confidence Tuesday after 12z.

* Medium confidence in thunderstorms late Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 403 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

DISCUSSION...

A stray shower remains possible until shortly after sunrise as the overachieving mid level low pressure system exits into Ontario. It is followed by a short wave ridge/surface high pressure combination that takes over conditions for the rest of today through tonight ensuring dry weather. Nearly full sun also helps lift temperatures into the lower 80s across the area with the exception of cooler readings near Lake Huron, still right around normal for late June and with low humidity.

A mostly zonal long wave pattern keeps smaller scale wave structures progressive across Canada and the northern tiers of states during the mid week period. The first short wave system is already organizing over the Canadian Prairie provinces today where ongoing convection stays mostly north of the border as the low pressure system reaches northern Ontario tonight. The system has a broad warm front and warm sector extending southward into the upper Midwest that will support a well organized low level jet focused into the Great Lakes late tonight into Tuesday. Model projections are in good agreement on 850 mb wind reaching 50 kts from the central Plains into the warm frontal zone late tonight leading to strong mid level moisture transport and destabilization. QPF fields from regional and global models blossom as a result and are supported by MCS development across the range of hi-res solutions. Consistent from earlier forecast cycles is the pronounced south to north instability axis feeding into the low pressure center which also sets up a sharp gradient into Lower MI by sunrise Tuesday. Surface based CAPE is almost nonexistent in SE MI Tuesday morning while MUCAPE drops off below 1000 J/kg which leads to a pronounced weakening of any organized convection while elevated moisture transport maintains numerous to widespread coverage of showers and other thunderstorm clusters across Lower MI until the low to mid level moisture axis builds fully into the Great Lakes by afternoon. The SPC Day 1 outlook reflects these trends and the General Thunder outlook is in good shape for SE MI.

A transition from nocturnal to surface based convective potential occurs Tuesday afternoon as the warm sector of the system surges into the Great Lakes. Afternoon temperatures reach the upper 80s as surface Td returns to around 70 in SW flow ahead the initial cold front/prefrontal trough. This boundary becomes the focus for round 2 of storms affecting Lower MI late Tuesday through Tuesday night. The regional/global models help frame a wide range of hi-res CAM solutions by suggesting surface based development is limited by capping 700 mb temperatures until a new cycle of the low level jet forcing occurs Tuesday night. The question then becomes how far north into Lower MI will this activity be able to reach before the trough/front sweeps the pattern south/east by Wednesday morning.
Probability is highest at the Ohio border and then tapers off toward the I69 corridor. The potential for severe intensity drops off from west to east across the southern Great Lakes reflecting the potential for greater MCS-type organization earlier in the night.

A chance of showers and sub-severe storms lingers into Wednesday morning until the primary cold front moves through SE MI by afternoon. High pressure then builds in aggressively for Thursday but the progressive larger scale pattern already has a very similar low pressure system organizing in the Plains and Midwest. This system is projected to bring a new thunderstorm pattern into the Great Lakes by Friday.

MARINE...

A lingering trough draped along the long axis of Lake Huron will pull away to the east today as high pressure builds across the region. Northerly winds will persist today being on the eastern edge of the high, but by this evening winds will go calm as the center of the high passes overhead. The next low pressure system starts developing upstream over the Plains/Midwest today and will pass through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will bring the next chances of showers and thunderstorms and an uptick in southwest winds Tuesday which may necessitate another Small Craft Advisory.

HYDROLOGY...

An active pattern of thunderstorms returns to Lower Michigan by Tuesday morning as warm and humid air surges back into the region.
Most SE Michigan locations will see at least a period of showers during the morning as thunderstorms decrease intensity while moving in from the west. Rainfall totals average 0.25 to 0.5 inch with localized amounts up to 1 inch possible.

The Tuesday morning activity is followed by a break in the afternoon until the next round of storms becomes possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Current forecast trends suggest this round of rainfall occurs mainly south of I69 across metro Detroit to the Ohio border. Additional totals up to 1 inch are possible with this activity until it exits the area by Wednesday afternoon.

The potential for flooding in each event is greater where repeated rounds of storms occur over the same area making ponding of water on roads and in prone low lying areas possible. The Tuesday and Wednesday activity collectively could lead to a brief response in the level of streams and rivers across the area.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi71 min0G2.9 71°F 29.96
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi71 minN 5.1G7 69°F 29.9463°F
45200 45 mi51 minNNE 3.9G5.8 70°F 78°F29.9564°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi53 minENE 2.9G5.1 70°F 29.9263°F
45165 48 mi41 minN 3.9G7.8 70°F 76°F1 ft
TWCO1 48 mi42 min5.1G8 70°F 75°F65°F


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Detroit, MI,




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