Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday August 18, 2019 2:44 AM CDT (07:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 8:48AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 919 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..Northeast winds around 10 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201908180900;;806207 FZUS53 KLOT 180219 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 919 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-180900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 180534
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1234 am cdt Sun aug 18 2019

Short term
228 pm cdt
through Sunday...

several forecast challenges concerns this afternoon through Sunday
morning, initially with respect to any additional scattered
shower storm development this afternoon and then more widespread
shower and storm potential overnight into early Sunday morning.

In the near term, focus revolves around another incoming mid-level
wave across eastern iowa this afternoon, which is expected to
gradually shift eastward across northern il through the remainder of
the daylight hours. Despite the atmosphere being considerably worked
over this morning, a CU field is already evident across parts of
eastern ia and northwest il out ahead of the wave in an increasingly
unstable environment, along with some isolated to scattered radar
returns (no lightning as of yet). Given the anticipated arrival of
greater support aloft and some recovery across northeast
il northwest in, will continue the mention of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area this afternoon... Most likely
between 20z and 00z before support strips off to the east and a lull
in activity is expected to become the rule this evening. There
remains a non-zero chance through this afternoon for a stronger
storm or two, mainly capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps
some hail.

However, focus rather quickly shifts to the tonight into early
Sunday time frame as an active pattern is expected to remain in
place. Additional, potentially widespread, showers and storms appear
likely during this time frame as no real change to the overall
pattern and environment is anticipated, with highly active mid-
levels and strong warm air advection supported by a stout llj
expected to be in place across the region. Latest trends continue to
suggest a complex of thunderstorms developing across southern
mn iowa late this evening into the early overnight hours before
tracking eastward toward the CWA toward sunrise Sunday. While
confidence isn't stellar, feel the most likely timing for storms to
track through the region is somewhere between 09-14z, with most
guidance in agreement with this timing. The exception is recent hrrr
runs, which have significantly slowed shower storm chances to after
12z Sunday. There will remain a severe weather threat with these
storms, primarily in the form of strong damaging winds, and to a
lesser extent, large hail. Given lots of deep layer moisture (pwats
progged AOA 1.75 inches), heavy downpours with at least an isolated
flooding risk will also be a concern.

Beyond Sunday morning, would expect some drier conditions to return
for part of the day, although with lingering surface trough boundary
across the region, wouldn't be surprised to see an additional
isolated shower and or storm develop late in the day early evening.

High temperatures Sunday expected to range from the low-upper 80s
across the forecast area with afternoon heat indices near 90
degrees for many areas.

Gillen

Long term
226 pm cdt
Sunday evening through Saturday...

a surface trough will cross the area Sunday evening into Sunday
night. This will lead to lingering chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the evening, with the
threat decreasing from northwest to southeast into the overnight.

Surface high pressure will move in from the west Monday and depart
Tuesday. The high will bring modestly drier air with it and
somewhat cooler temps for Monday with highs in the lower 80s north
to mid 80s south. Winds shift southerly Tuesday bringing warmer
and more humid back into the area. An upper trough will cross the
area with a weak surface reflection accompanying it. Will need to
see what kind of thunderstorm chances will be present with this,
but guidance seems to be more focused on something tracking more
to the south of the area. Will keep chance pops going Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. A deeper upper low will move across
ontario Wednesday pushing cooler and drier air into the local area
as another surface high builds in, this time from the north.

Guidance is at odds with some of the details with the GFS favoring
slightly active upper flow which suggests subtle chances for
shower thunder development late this week. Will continue with a
dry forecast from Wednesday afternoon into the weekend but
continue to keep an eye on how the pattern evolves.

Mdb

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

numerous aviation weather concerns through the upcoming taf
period, including:
-potential for splotchy MVFR-ifr CIGS vsbys tonight, mainly near
dpa but possible at all sites
-timing an anticipated line of arcing showers and thunderstorms
late tonight and into Sunday morning
-cessation of TS chances
-gusty southwest winds this afternoon
-potential for additional showers and storms this evening and
tonight
-northwest wind shift with a cold front late tonight
things are relatively quiet at this hour at our area terminals,
although things are expected to change pretty rapidly after about
10-11z. Mostly clear skies combined with generally light southerly
winds and dewpoint depressions in the 3-5 degree range may support
some br fg potential. Currently think the greatest chances exist
at dpa and gyy, but an outside chance exists at ord, mdw, and rfd.

This should be relatively short-lived as incoming convection will
disrupt any fog formation.

Timing out an area of strong to severe convection currently
rolling through NW iowa and south-central minnesota yields
approximate arrival times at rfd towards 10-11z, and into the
chicago-area terminals around 12-13z or so. Pure extrapolation is
challenging at this juncture, however, as some additional forward
acceleration is possible, followed by a slowing as the mcs
attempts to build into a slowly veering low-level jet. So minimal
changes were made to the inherited TAF timing for tsra as a
result. Additionally, elevated convection may develop well ahead
of this incoming complex, hence the buffer zone with vcts (and a
longer window at rfd).

After this complex clears the region, breezy southwesterly winds
are expected this afternoon although the magnitude of any gusts
remains uncertain due to a stout inversion just aloft. Think
occasional gusts to 25 kts will be within reach, however.

Think there is at least a low potential for additional showers and
storms to percolate Sunday evening and overnight, mainly invof
the chicago-area terminals. Confidence in this, however, remains
too low to warrant a vcts or vcsh mention but this will be
monitored for potential inclusion in subsequent tafs. Finally, a
cold FROPA will bring a north to northwest wind shift the the area
terminals Sunday night.

Carlaw

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 0 mi45 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 72°F 74°F1 ft
45187 8 mi45 min S 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 73°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi45 min S 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1010.5 hPa (-1.0)
45174 18 mi45 min S 5.8 G 7.8 74°F1 ft1008.6 hPa
FSTI2 28 mi105 min S 7 73°F
OKSI2 33 mi105 min Calm G 1 78°F
45177 34 mi165 min 75°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi55 min S 7 G 7 74°F 72°F
CNII2 37 mi45 min S 2.9 G 7 72°F 67°F
JAKI2 42 mi105 min S 1.9 G 5.1 72°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi45 min S 5.8 G 5.8 73°F 73°F1011.3 hPa72°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi57 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 71°F 1010.9 hPa70°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi1.8 hrsSW 46.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1010.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi1.9 hrsS 37.00 miFair71°F69°F94%1011.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair71°F66°F84%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--SW8CalmW3--SW3SW3E6SE9SE11
G18
E7S8S6S3Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4Calm
1 day ago--CalmSW3SW5--S5S7S9S8S10S10SE8SE11SE6S10
G14
SW6SW10SW8W3------CalmSW3
2 days agoNW4NW4NW5NW5NW4NW53N4N7N7NE9
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G16
NE8E10----E3CalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.