Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:26PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 1:50 PM CDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 7:01AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 942 Am Cdt Wed Apr 8 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm cdt this afternoon through Thursday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east early in the afternoon, then shifting northwest 20 to 25 kt by early evening. Areas of dense fog. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft late.
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening, then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest gales to 35 kt. Chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:202004082115;;768984 FZUS53 KLOT 081442 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 942 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>743-082115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 081749 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1249 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

UPDATE. 1127 AM CDT

The main forecast concern continues to revolve around the threat for more strong storms this afternoon in association with the approach of a strong cold front.

The early morning low clouds and fog have dissipated in most areas, with the exception of far northern IL, where some low cloud cover remains. With clearing skies across the area this afternoon, ample insolation will allow temperatures to warm into the low 70s north, and into the mid to upper 70s in my southern counties. While this will be beneficial to support destabilization ahead of the approaching front this afternoon, it appears that low-level moisture will remain rather modest into northern IL through the day. This in return will limit the the magnitude of the instability over much of northern IL later today.

While boundary layer moisture is not expected to be overly impressive over our area today, the kinematics will one again be more than favorable to support more organized severe thunderstorms, with deep layer bulk shear expected to be at or above 50 KT. For this reason, we will have to monitor the threat for storms capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon, especially over my southern counties into central IL and IN.

Forecast guidance continues to support surface based thunderstorms developing after 2pm over southeastern IA into west central IL ahead of the approaching cold front and on the northern periphery of the better low-level moisture and instability. This activity is likely to initially be in the form of discrete super cells, capable of producing large hail. However, as it shifts eastward towards central IL, and into my southern counties, after 4pm it should begin to build upscale into line clusters capable of producing strong wind gusts. The activity should then continue east into IN by early this evening. This would put the best timing for any strong to severe storms in my southern counties between 4 and 7 pm this evening.

Farther to the north showers and some thunderstorms are also expected later this afternoon into early this evening. However, the threat of severe storms looks much lower due to the presence of weaker instability.

The showers and storms should end across the entire area early this evening. The gusty northwest winds, and falling temperatures will then become the primary story tonight into Thursday.

KJB

SHORT TERM. 313 AM CDT

Through Thursday .

The primary forecast concerns in the short-term period are as follows:

* Fog, some dense, through mid-morning * Showers and thunderstorms this evening with a risk for damaging winds and hail south of I-80 between 4 and 8 PM * Strong northwesterly winds Thursday with gusts > 40 mph possible

Technical discussion below:

Currently, temperatures are in the upper 50s in the wake of weak cold front that swept through northern Illinois yesterday evening. A baggy high pressure is directly overhead allowing for light winds and large-scale subsidence. Pockets of fog have developed as of press time especially in areas that saw rainfall yesterday. With the regime remaining somewhat steady-state through daybreak, areas of fog may expand all the way down to I-80 with pockets of dense (e.g. visibility < 1/4 of a mile) certainly possible by daybreak. All fog should mix away after daybreak as the sun allows for gradual thermally-driven mixing.

Upper-level water vapor imagery depicts a sharp upper-level trough screaming south over the Canadian/United State border with surface observations confirming a corresponding surface cold front currently going through the Dakotas. As the front races through our area this evening, a band of showers and thunderstorms is expected with a non- zero chance for strong to severe storms. Now the forecast this evening is not trivial. As the aforementioned surface high pressure system scoots southeast and weakens after daybreak this morning, winds will remain somewhat weak but turn southwesterly, more or less keeping the low-level moisture that's out there right now in place. Without strong winds in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, mixing away the moisture appears unlikely though even current levels would not be stellar contributions to low-level instability. Even so, partly sunny skies today will allow surface temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s allowing for low-level lapse rates to steepen accordingly. Plus, while certainly not as steep as yesterday evening, mid-level lapse rates will recover somewhat to 7-7.5 K/Km by this afternoon, and deep-layer shear will remain high and above 50 kts. So, assuming enough instability is able to develop in spite of somewhat meager moisture, it is not out of questions a band of severe storms may erupt along the front as it surges southeast this evening. Given strong linear forcing and non- negligible line-perpendicular components to the front, a mixed mode of line segments and embedded supercells will be possible.

Based on the timing of the front and expected location of the best low-level moisture, the greatest risk for severe weather appears to be along if not just south of I-80 from 4 to 8 PM. The expected threats will be damaging winds greater than 60 mph (enhanced if bowing segments can become established) and hail to quarter size (lower threat than than yesterday given expected weaker lapse rates and smaller potential updraft sizes). Note confidence is not high in the severe weather risk given questions with the quality of moisture this far north, and the better threat is certainly from central Illinois southward. The 00Z suite of CAMs colloquially represents our forecast confidence, demonstrating a wide array of solutions ranging from light rain showers to organized storm structures.

One thing is certain: the cold front will plow through with gusto this evening with a pop of winds given surface pressure rises of several millibars in just a few hours. By daybreak Thursday, northern Illinois will be positioned between a strengthening high pressure in the plains and deepening surface low over the northeastern United States in a cold-air advection regime driven by a deep cold pool aloft. Ensemble model guidance continues to hold firm in strong northwesterly winds during daylight hours Thursday, with ensemble mean peak wind gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Having the benefit of forecasting the prior gusty wind event about a week ago, the signal in model guidance this time around is not as strong as the last event, with the going forecast calling for gusts to top out right below wind advisory criteria. Regardless, wind advisory or not, it will be gusty and feel much colder than what we've grown used to.

The last thing to watch is the potential for widely scattered graupel showers Thursday afternoon given steep low- to mid-level lapse rates (e.g. mid-level cold pool). With forecast equilibrium levels tapping into stronger winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates right through a dry layer, heavier graupel showers may be able to drag down locally stronger wind gusts over 45 mph.

Borchardt

LONG TERM. 313 AM CDT

Thursday night through Tuesday .

Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be some 10-15 degrees below normal as deep upper-level troughing remains in place overhead. Overnight lows may dip into the upper 20s, posing a risk of damage to any early-season plants. Forecast confidence decreases Sunday onward as both deterministic and ensemble model guidance try to resolve the interaction of a shortwave trough originating along the southwestern Mexico/US border and a deepening upper-level trough pivoting out of western Canada. The two appear poised to phase over the central United States which may lead to a strong storm system somewhere in our neck of the woods. The wake of whatever comes of the two waves may end up as another shot (if not reinforcement) of below-normal temperatures from the middle of next week onward.

Borchardt

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

1249 PM . Forecast concerns include .

Chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon/early this evening. Wind directions/speeds through early evening. Strong/gusty northwest winds Thursday. Chance of showers Thursday afternoon.

A cold front will move across northwest IL and rfd by mid afternoon and into the Chicago area terminals late this afternoon. There is still a little uncertainty with the frontal timing into the Chicago area and tweaks may be needed. Ahead of this front winds are generally light south/southeast and a lake breeze is possible across the Chicago terminals this afternoon . before the cold front arrives. Thus an easterly wind is expected for ord/mdw before the front. This cold front will allow showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop. The best chance for thunder is expected south of the terminals but there will still be a short window of time when some thunder will be possible and the best timing is 23z-00z for ord/mdw. Showers will continue for a few hours into this evening but much of tonight into Thursday morning will be dry.

Dense fog continues over southern Lake Michigan this afternoon and this may spread inland just a little . especially if there is a lake breeze . as a low cig but confidence is low.

After the cold front goes through . winds will settle to northwest this evening and there could be a period with no gusts this evening before speeds/gust increase later this evening and into the overnight hours. Speeds/gusts will quickly increase after sunrise Thursday with gusts into the mid 30kt range.

Scattered showers are expected Thursday afternoon and its possible that these showers become convective and with cold air aloft there may be some snow showers along with rain showers. Confidence for precip type is low so for now have added prob rain shower mention to ord/mdw but some mixed precip may be needed with later forecasts. cms

MARINE. 202 AM CDT

Will be issuing a gale watch for Thursday for the IL nearshore and from the IL/IN border to Gary IN. These locations are most prone to seeing gale force winds Thursday with frequent gusts 35 to 40 knots expected. East of Gary, the wind forecast trajectory takes it over cold lake waters and anticipate the more stable marine boundary layer will greatly temper wind speeds east of Gary, IN along the Indiana shore.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743 . 5 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

Gale Watch . LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743 . 7 AM Thursday to 6 PM Thursday.

Dense Fog Advisory . Gary to Michigan City IN until 7 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ744-LMZ745 . 7 PM Wednesday to 3 PM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi51 min Calm G 5.1 48°F 1008.1 hPa (-0.4)
OKSI2 33 mi111 min ESE 8 G 9.9 46°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi31 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 45°F 45°F
CNII2 37 mi21 min ENE 2.9 G 6 46°F 44°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi31 min N 6 G 9.9 45°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi51 min NE 6 G 7 45°F 1006.5 hPa (-1.9)45°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi56 minVar 58.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F51°F75%1007.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi58 minW 610.00 miOvercast63°F52°F68%1007.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi59 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds67°F48°F53%1007 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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N7E5NE3NE3CalmNE4NE3NE3SE3S4CalmCalmCalmSW6W4Calm5
1 day agoSE11SE7SE8SE5SE4SE3SE7E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmSE10S12
2 days agoNE7NE6NE65E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SE5SE8SE10SE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.