Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:30PM Saturday July 11, 2020 1:25 PM CDT (18:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:51AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 927 Am Cdt Sat Jul 11 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to around 10 kt and becoming east this afternoon. Mostly Sunny early, then becoming partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to around 1 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..East winds around 10 kt becoming variable 5 to 10 kt in the evening, then becoming north 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 ft building to 1 to 2 ft by morning.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ740 Expires:202007112115;;679689 FZUS53 KLOT 111427 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 927 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-112115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 111758 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

UPDATE. 905 AM CDT

The increasing potential for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and into the evening continues to be the primary weather concern. However, in the near term I did increase POPs, especially over north central IL where some elevated storms will be moving over shortly from southwest WI.

The main feature of interest for later todays weather is the mid and upper level impulse over North Dakota early this morning. Increasing warm air advection in advance of this disturbance is already supporting the elevated thunderstorms to our northwest across southeastern MN and adjacent areas of IA and southwestern WI. This activity will impact parts of north central IL this morning before gradually dissipating by early this afternoon. The severe threat with this initial activity should remain on the low side. We are most concerned about another potential round of storms later today into this evening for the main severe threat.

The main North Dakota impulse is expected shift southeastward across the upper Midwest this afternoon as it moves along the northeastern periphery of the southwestern CONUS subtropical ridge. As this occurs, increased forcing for ascent should interact with diurnal destabilization to support renewed thunderstorm development to our northwest during the afternoon. Given the presence of a 40 to 50 kt mid-level speed max associated with the main impulse, as sampled by the 12z RAOBs across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, deep layer shear should be sufficient to support more organized storm clusters including some super cells. These storms then look to track southeastward towards northwestern and north central IL sometime late this afternoon after 4pm, before shifting across most of my IL counties into this evening. The severe threat should be from around 5 pm through ~10pm, with strong damaging winds being the primary threat and a secondary threat of large hail. While much of the area will be in this risk for strong to severe storms, it appear the threat will be slightly higher over my western and southern counties.

Showers and storms could linger overnight, with another cluster of activity possible following the late afternoon and evening activity. However, the severe threat should wane following the first wave of storms, but some heavy rain threat will continue to be possible. Things should dry out by early Sunday morning as the main upper level impulse begins to shift to our southeast.

KJB

SHORT TERM. 334 AM CDT

Through Sunday .

The weather remains quiet early this morning across the Great Lakes region. Highs today will again remain under 90 degrees with most areas reaching the mid to upper 80s.

The main concern in the short term is the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe. A potent short wave is currently rounding the upper level ridge over northern North Dakota and expected to drop southeast across Minnesota/Wisconsin into the area. There remains considerable model variability with how things will ultimately evolve late this afternoon and evening which has resulted in additional uncertainty with regard to thunderstorm timing. Earlier guidance suggested there could be isolated convection out ahead of this system earlier in the day associated with a more subtle disturbance in southern Minnesota. As of this morning, showers there have been struggling to maintain themselves and latest hi- res guidance has backed off on this potential accordingly.

CAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range combined with 25-30 kts of deep layer shear and steep low level lapse rates should support strong to severe storms late afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. A few isolated thunderstorms may still try to develop mid afternoon ahead of the approaching system but the bigger concern will be late afternoon into the evening as the main system moves into the area. There remains plenty of model variability as to when this activity will reach the area, however. The HRRR has been the fastest solution having a line of convection reach the area by 4-6pm while the NAM solutions have trended a few hours later. Am favoring a more in between scenario at this time as the HRRR has been too fast with various MCS systems across Nebraska the past couple of days, which may be the case again today. The forecast timing will likely need further refinement based on upstream trends during the day. In addition, a narrow corridor of higher PWATS lift into the area which would support heavy rain with any storms that develop resulting in a limited flash flood risk.

The threat for strong to severe storms will diminish by late evening. Showers and thunderstorms may linger overnight into Sunday morning on the backside of the low drop to the southeast, similar to Friday morning. Winds turn northerly behind the system and could be breezy in the afternoon, especially for areas downstream along the lake. This will help keep temperatures in the low 80s across the area, mid to upper 70s lakeside.

Petr

LONG TERM. 325 AM CDT

Sunday night through Friday .

Mid-level short wave trough continues to dig southeast into the Ohio Valley Sunday evening, with height rises indicative of deep layer subsidence developing across the forecast area. Resulting surface high pressure ridge develops across the western Great Lakes region into Monday, providing a period of fair weather with temps near seasonal average and lakeside cooling to the region to start the week.

Upper ridging begins to build briefly back into the area Monday night into Tuesday, downstream of a somewhat broad upper trough over western Canada and the northern Plains. Low level southerly flow renews warm advection into the forecast area, with 850 mb temps approaching/reaching +20C Tuesday afternoon, supporting afternoon highs around 90 degrees, though the main boundary layer moisture axis remains west of the region through the day and keeps humidity in check. Weak surface low pressure is progged to develop and propagate across the upper Midwest Tuesday night, trailing a cold front which is progged to sag slowly southeast across the cwa through Wednesday night. Thunderstorm chances ramp up late Tuesday into Tuesday night as the front approaches, as the short wave flattens the ridge into a more zonal west-east flow pattern aloft. A series of minor-amplitude disturbances look to track through this zonal flow aloft during the mid-week period, setting the stage for a few potential rounds of thunderstorms from Tuesday night through Wednesday night while the slow moving front remains in the vicinity. Modest westerly mid-level flow, and a pwat axis in the 2.00 inch range suggest the potential for some severe/heavy rain threat, though likely modulated by mesoscale features and timing related to diurnal instability. ECMWF and Canadian model solutions sag the front south of the area Thursday and Thursday night, while the GFS oddly keeps it farther north. Westerly flow aloft and successive rounds of convection/outflow would suggest the combined boundary would at some point become focused farther south, favoring the EC/CMC output. Suspect the NBM pops are therefore a bit high and too far north for the Thurs/Thurs night periods, and have generally limited mention to slight chance during that time.

Medium range guidance continues to depict a more zonal upper pattern for the end of the week/early next weekend, though the ECMWF does still attempt to build some semblance of upper ridging in the Friday- Saturday time frame. Temp-wise, after Tuesday's 90-degree warmth, trends are a bit muddier mid-week with the front moving slowly through and associated convective influences. Wed- Thu appear warm (mid-upper 80s) and likely more humid in the vicinity of the front, though with some lake cooling likely if the front does sag south and weak high pressure develops near/north of the cwa. Have continued to give a nod to the usually reliable ECMWF with 90s developing again Friday, and the front lifting back north. Uncertainty remains however, and solutions have generally continued to back away from strong ridging and more significant heat at this time.

Ratzer

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

Weakening convective disturbance moving across the area will probably produce some light showers at the terminals the first hour of the TAFs. In the wake of this disturbance, winds could become fairly light/variable for time this afternoon, particularly west toward DPA and RFD. Will need to watch for possible lake breeze development and penetration inland late this afternoon into early this evening. Expectation at this point is that if a lake breeze forms, it probably won't make it to MDW and ORD, but it isn't out of the question.

Another, more vigorous, disturbance upstream will kick off more SHRA/TSRA this afternoon over southern MN and northern IA. This activity is expected to move east-southeastward along and just north of outflow from this morning's activity. Low confidence in how far north the thunder activity will be tonight and does appear the better thunderstorm chances will be south of the terminals. However, it is plausible thunder could be as far north as the terminals, so decided to keep TSRA in the TAFs, since it was already in the forecast.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 8 mi25 min WNW 7.8 G 12 78°F 73°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi25 min W 11 G 16 81°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.7)
45174 18 mi25 min W 12 G 14 79°F 75°F2 ft1012 hPa66°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi35 min W 22 G 24 79°F 66°F
CNII2 37 mi25 min W 9.9 G 16 77°F 62°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi35 min WSW 6 G 9.9 82°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi55 min W 5.1 G 11 82°F 1012.7 hPa62°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi30 minWSW 8 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F64°F60%1011 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi32 minW 1210.00 miFair80°F64°F60%1011.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi33 minW 8 G 1810.00 miLight Rain77°F64°F66%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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NW8NW4CalmCalmNW334NW5W444NW4NW4453W7NW10
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1 day agoSE12SE8E6SE6SE8CalmSE11
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S66NE5SW5SW5SW4SW5W4334NW8NW9NW10
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2 days agoSE3SE4SE6SE8SE9SE6SE5SE4S4S4S3Calm3CalmCalmCalmSW4Calm3CalmE7E7SE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.