Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:20PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:33 AM CST (06:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 906 Pm Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ740 Expires:201912111015;;169612 FZUS53 KLOT 110306 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 906 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>743-111015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 110459 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1059 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

UPDATE.

A weakly forced area of stratus/stratocumulus clouds continue to slowly advect eastward this evening. Where the cloud shield is thicker, some flurries have occurred given that the cloud layer is solidly in the dendritic growth region. Expect at least some pockets of these lower clouds to continue at time tonight but there appears to be a diminishing trend.

The main cloud shield is back out over northwest Iowa, southwest MN and into the Dakotas. This will shift into the area overnight and into Wednesday morning on the nose of a fairly stiff mid-upper level jet axis. In spite of the strong wind field, isentropic analysis depicts largely parallel flow to the isentropic surfaces indicating the lift is fairly weak. Still, the returning supersaturate (with respect to ice) higher based moisture layer up at 8-15kft per the Omaha (KOAX) Oz upper air sounding will still support some flurries and even some brief snow showers very late tonight in to Wednesday morning. No major changes to the going forecast message with flurries possible for most of the area, with a narrow area south and west of the Chicago metro possibly having enough lift for dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow given a deep snow growth region in the clouds. The prime window would be roughly 6am-10am CST.

Earlier forecast products have been updated/issued to account for the cloud pockets and flurries this evening.

KMD

SHORT TERM. 236 PM CST

Through Wednesday night .

Main forecast concern/challenge is with a period of light snow Wednesday morning for parts of north central IL.

Early morning stratus and flurries have since diminished this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies currently in place. Do think skies will remain clear into this evening, however, it's possible that locations south of I-80 in IL could get clipped with stratus to the west. Slow moving weak wave dropping southeast across IA will continue to dip into central IL this evening, with associated stratus and even some flurries also likely continue to move southeast. Current movement would keep the bulk of this moisture just to the south, but once again, locations from Peru to Watseka may get into a little more cloud cover later this evening. Flurries would also be possible if this occurred.

Under most clear skies this evening, expect another chilly night with temps in the teens. Decent gradient in place will support a steady westerly wind tonight, that will help produce wind chills in the single digits to just below zero. Expect another fast moving wave to drop southeast across the region later tonight into Wednesday morning, and initially support increasing cloud cover. Forcing expected to further increase into Wednesday morning, as WAA and some lower level FGEN swing through, and should erode the rather dry conditions in place. This will allow an area of light snow to push across the area, especially across portions of north central IL. Although confidence is growing for a period of light snow Wednesday morning, do have some lower confidence with the coverage and northward extent of this snow. Do think though that locations along and south of a line from Rochelle to Kankakee, to Rensselaer IN will see either light snow or flurries. A more focused area of snow is appearing to setup for locations along and south of Mendota to Paxton in IL, with a few tenths up to a half inch possible. Expect this snow to likely wind down by late morning, with the remainder of the day into Wednesday night dry. Surface ridge builds in behind this system Wednesday afternoon, with a period of sunny skies likely. Temps look to dip into the teens again Wednesday evening. WAA ramps back up though during the night ahead of an approaching system, with temps then expected to rise into the low 20s.

Rodriguez

LONG TERM. 236 PM CST

Thursday through Tuesday .

Thursday through Friday: Phasing of a compact northern mid-level wave and a sheared southern mid-level trough will occur over the Missouri Valley early Thursday, with an associated low tracking northeast across Iowa. An area of isentropic ascent just ahead of this wave and low will spread an area of precip across WI on Thursday. This precip should remain north of the CWA, but there is a low chance that a light mix of rain and snow may brush the WI state line. Additional light snow may occur for the far northwest CWA in the evening as a decaying cold front also clips the area. Friday is expected to be dry under mid to upper-level clouds ahead of an approaching system for Saturday.

Friday night and Saturday night: Guidance has been rather variable on the handling of potential precip, including some snow, during this period. A trio of shortwave troughs within deep broad cyclonic flow across the north-central CONUS will shift across the region Friday night through Saturday night. Latest guidance suggests one of the waves will remain north of the CWA. The other pair of waves will likely phase to some degree over the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the southern extension of the broader trough will be shifting ENE across the Tennessee Valley. Given this complicated set-up it is no surprise that guidance has been rather variable. However, the previously more aggressive ECMWF solution has fallen more in line with the GFS/GEFS/CMC solutions with its 12Z run. Given this general model consensus, it appears the phased trough will bring a chance for a rain/snow mix Friday night into Saturday morning before a cold front and subsequent strong CAA switch all precip to snow during the afternoon on Friday. In this scenario, the heaviest precip in the form of mostly snow will occur briefly for any given location Saturday afternoon. With a lot of fine details that are impossible to determine this far out given the phasing wave set-up, expect forecast changes as the weekend approaches.

Sunday through Tuesday: Generally zonal flow aloft over surface high pressure across the Upper Mississippi River Valley will produce dry and quiet conditions across the area during this time. The larger scale flow will then break down by Monday as troughing over the north Pacific digs into the western CONUS. A prominent southern jet will interact with this trough by late Monday, though guidance differs on where this will initiate. The GFS depicts a stronger and more potent mid-level trough producing a notable shield of precip prior to its arrival across the area. This is an outlier with only a few similar GEFS members, so will hedge toward the rest of the model suite that advertises light snow across the area Monday into Monday night and keeps the bulk of precipitation to the south and east of the forecast area.

Kluber

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Aviation forecast concerns:

- Brief period of MVFR ceilings with flurries around midnight tonight.

- Another brief period of flurries possible Wednesday morning.

- West winds persist into Wednesday then diminish and turn light southeast early Wednesday evening.

Current IR satellite imagery depicts a small area of MVFR stratus across parts of northern IL, with bases around 2500 feet. With cold air mass in place, this cloud layer is in prime ice growth temperatures, and many sites have reported light flurries as the deck moves over. This will likely pass across Chicago metro terminals through midnight/shortly after, though with no impact to visibility and no accumulation.

A stronger disturbance will dig southeast across the region early Wednesday, brining the potential for more widespread flurries or very light snow mainly just south of the terminals. VFR mid-deck already advancing quickly east-southeastward across IA, and will be moving across terminals before sunrise. While minor accumulation is possible farther south into central IL, looks like terminals will again have a brief (2-4 hour) period of no-impact VFR flurries during the morning, before clouds scatter mid-day.

West winds around 10 kts persist tonight into Wednesday in weakly cyclonic low level flow across the region. Surface high pressure ridge moves into the region by Wednesday evening, allowing winds to diminish, and become light southeast as the surface high pressure ridge drifts east of the area Wednesday night.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Gary to Michigan City IN until 3 PM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi34 min WSW 9.9 G 13 15°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.7)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi34 min W 19 G 22 18°F 10°F
CNII2 37 mi19 min SW 12 G 14 18°F 9°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi24 min W 9.9 G 12 14°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 11 17°F 1025.4 hPa8°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi39 minVar 510.00 miFair15°F6°F67%1026.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi41 minWSW 1010.00 miFair16°F9°F74%1025.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi42 minW 8 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy18°F7°F62%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE3S4S7SE4S5SW9SW6SW7SW9SW10SW8SW11SW10W9
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SW13SW15SW11SW10SW12SW8SW7SW7SW5CalmSE4E3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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