Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

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Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 11:20 AM CDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 939 Am Cdt Wed Jul 17 2019
Rest of today..Northeast winds around 10 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201907172145;;784846 FZUS53 KLOT 171439 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 939 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-172145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 171135
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
635 am cdt Wed jul 17 2019

Short term
304 am cdt
for today...

barry's remnant circulation continues to peel east of the region
early this morning. In the wake of this departing system, dewpoint
depressions are low across much of the area--generally running under
2-3 f outside of the urban corridors. Nighttime microphysics rgb
satellite imagery reveals low stratus percolating across our
eastern counties and surface observations are depicting ongoing
patchy visibility reductions. In addition, the corridor from near
and east of i-55 picked up pockets of heavier rainfall on Tuesday
afternoon, so this will be the region to watch for fog formation,
some of which could be locally dense. Farther to the west, mid-
level cloud cover associated with a weakening thunderstorm complex
should help curtail the potential for more widespread visibility
issues this morning.

Today is looking mostly dry as northern illinois and northwest
indiana will be situated along the backside of a departing mid-
level shortwave. However, the combination of a lake breeze and
weak convergence associated with another nearby col may be enough
to spark isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers storms this
afternoon in a very weakly capped environment. Forecast soundings
show convective inhibition eroding by late this morning and into
the early-afternoon hours. As a result, we've added some low (20%)
pops across parts of the area, mainly in a northwest-southeast
band near and west of the expected lake breeze boundary.

It will be warmer today compared to Wednesday with overall less
cloud cover (outside of diurnally-building cumulus and isolated
storms). Showing highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, except
along the immediate lakeshore where the aforementioned lake
breeze should get going pretty early today.

For tonight...

attention this evening and tonight turns upstream to a potential
thunderstorm complex which may bring a risk for strong to possibly
severe wind gusts to parts of the area. Guidance is in good
agreement that a burgeoning low-level jet (35-45 kts in the
925-850 mb layer) will intercept the northeastern periphery of a
plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates this evening to our
west. Associated warm advection and surface convergence in the
vicinity of a cold front should ignite a region of thunderstorms
at the nose of the llj... Somewhere near the iowa minnesota border.

Where this convective initiation occurs will be important, as
activity developing at this latitude will have a potential to dive
into our region as cold pool amalgamation occurs. The gfs
continues to be the north outlier with the llj, while cams are now
really keying in on the iowa minnesota border region. Should a
sufficiently deep cold pool develop, a forward-propagating mcs
could subsequently move southeastward towards our area late this
evening and overnight.

Mid-level flow decreases with southward extent, and remains more
west-east oriented through Thursday morning. As a result, the
southern end of this complex may begin to gust out as it
approaches our CWA (and slows following upwind corfidi vectors),
while the eastern end continues to truck along more quickly to
the southeast. Still some questions regarding convective vigor by
the time this potential complex reaches illinois, but a strong to
possibly severe wind threat will exist given the large reservoir
of instability. We will also have to monitor for training
potential at the SW end of this MCS as strong WAA will persist
through Thursday morning which could result in isolated flooding
issues, mainly in the upwind-propagating portion of the MCS likely
across our western counties.

For Thursday through Saturday...

***a period of dangerous heat is expected across the area
Thursday through Saturday. Heat advisories and excessive heat
watches have been posted. However, we want to stress that it's
not so important to focus on who is under an excessive heat
watch warning, or advisory. The heat is forecast to be oppressive
and dangerous everywhere, with possibly some of the hottest
conditions since 2012.***
for Thursday morning, outflow from the potential overnight complex
may push through our entire CWA Thursday morning. As a result,
we've nudged morning temperatures and dewpoints down a bit. All
indications, however, continue to point to breezy southwest flow
enabling a quick airmass recovery through the afternoon hours.

Still some lingering questions about the degree of mixing on
Thursday afternoon and still think the near 80 degree dewpoints
from the NAM and GFS are a bit overcooked. The 03z rap, which
tends to more aggressively mix due to the mynn pbl scheme, hints
at a potential for dewpoints to drop into the lower 70s across
parts of the region Thursday afternoon. This will obviously have
implications for our heat index forecast.

Either way, Thursday will be the first day of a period of
dangerous heat across the region as highs build into the mid 90s
with dewpoints that should at least support heat indices of 105
across all of the region. The current forecast shows heat indices
of 106- 111 degrees for a widespread area roughly near and south
of i-88. Breezy southwest winds will help take the edge off a bit,
however.

Guidance has been offering some hints that another MCS may try to
develop Thursday night across michigan that could try to build
southwest into the low-level jet. At this time, think any precip
potential during this time frame will remain north and east of our
area, but we'll continue to monitor trends in guidance.

Friday is still looking like the hottest of this upcoming stretch.

It's not out of realm of possibility that places tag 100 degrees
during the afternoon (actual air temperatures). Heat indices of
106-112 are forecast area-wide. We also want to continue to stress
that sweltering conditions are anticipated overnight (both
Thursday and Friday) with lows likely only dipping into the upper
70s and possibly staying in the 80s in downtown chicago. Record
high minimum temperatures may be in jeopardy at ord and rfd.

Saturday continues to pose a conundrum for our temperature forecast.

Guidance has been waffling with the location of a cold front and
subsequent initiation of showers and thunderstorms. Obviously, if
storms manage to develop during the late-morning early-afternoon
hours, temperatures could be quite a bit cooler than currently
advertised. That said, the latest guidance supports continued hot
conditions, especially for locales near and south of i-88 within
the thermal ridge. For locales north of i-88, we opted to hoist
a two-day heat advisory that does not include Saturday due to
slightly lower heat indices on Thursday and Friday and somewhat
higher potential for things to cool down Saturday afternoon with
the front. While heat indices south of i-88 are not explicitly
forecast to touch 110 Saturday afternoon, this would be the third
day of 105+ values over a widespread area, hence the three-day
excessive heat watch for these locales.

Carlaw

Long term
308 am cdt
Sunday through Tuesday...

thankfully, relief from the heat does appear to be in sight come
Sunday as a sharp shortwave digs southward and helps finally send
a cold front into and eventually through the area. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will subsequently increase (as early as
Saturday evening). The mid-level flow increases a bit on Sunday
with the approach of this next shortwave, so there may be some
propensity for storm organization and an associated strong-severe
thunderstorm potential.

By Monday and Tuesday, temperatures should be back to near
seasonal normals in the lower to middle 80s along with markedly
lower dewpoints (in the 50s and 60s).

Carlaw

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

dry with mainlyVFR conditions in place at this time. The
exception is gyy where some ifr ceilings have moved across the
area. These lower ceilings should only last for a couple of more
hours though. Overall dry for much of the day, but some
afternoon isolated showers and a storm or two still possible.

There hasn't been any change in confidence and have only included
vcsh, but once again, some isolated thunder is also possible.

Next chance for showers and storms will arrive later tonight into
early Thursday morning, when a complex of thunderstorms could move
southeast across the region. Have begin highlighting that in the
taf, but anticipate further refinements with later forecasts. Light
and variable winds expected this morning, but expected to become
more east northeast later today with the exception of rfd where a
more southerly direction will be favored.

Rodriguez

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Heat advisory... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008... Noon
Thursday to 11 pm Friday.

Excessive heat watch... Ilz010-ilz011-ilz012-ilz013-ilz014-ilz019-
ilz020-ilz021-ilz022-ilz023-ilz032-ilz033-ilz039... Noon
Thursday to 7 pm Saturday.

In... Excessive heat watch... Inz001-inz002-inz010-inz011-inz019... Noon
Thursday to 7 pm Saturday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 0 mi21 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 70°F
45187 8 mi21 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 68°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi21 min ESE 7 G 8 73°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.6)
45174 18 mi21 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 1012.5 hPa (+2.2)
FSTI2 28 mi81 min ENE 1.9 78°F
OKSI2 33 mi81 min SE 1 G 2.9 81°F
45177 34 mi141 min 73°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi31 min Calm G 1 80°F 75°F
CNII2 37 mi21 min E 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 70°F
JAKI2 42 mi81 min ESE 1 G 1.9 79°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi31 min S 1.9 G 3.9 72°F 70°F1014.1 hPa69°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi51 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 77°F 1013.3 hPa73°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi31 min NE 7 G 8 69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi26 minENE 610.00 miFair82°F71°F69%1012.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi28 minE 810.00 miA Few Clouds85°F75°F72%1013.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi29 minVar 510.00 miFair89°F70°F53%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3E5E66SE5SE6SE4SE7SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3CalmNW33NW6NW4CalmNE6
1 day agoSW14
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2 days agoE8E5E7E8E10E8E8E4NE4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW7SW6SW9SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.