Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 3:03 PM CST (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 2:59PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 242 Pm Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm cst this evening through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 25 kt during the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..South winds 20 to 25 kt diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Snow likely through the day. Rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:202001220415;;306251 FZUS53 KLOT 212042 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 242 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-220415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 212047 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 247 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

SHORT TERM. 230 PM CST

Through Wednesday .

High pressure centered over the lower Ohio Valley will drift eastward tonight which will help keep a steady southwesterly wind in place for most areas. This will result in a milder night than last night, with lows in the upper teens west to lower 20s southeast. Some sites may warm a few degrees overnight thanks to the breeze and incoming mid/high level cloud cover, especially west. Breezy south-southwest winds will develop Wednesday morning with cloud cover thickening through the day from west to east. Upper ridging will cross the area through the day with modest warming aloft which will lead to highs in the low to mid 30s. An upper trough will be on the heels of the ridge with surface low pressure developing across the high plains. Light snow may try to develop into far northwest sections of the forecast area west of I-39 late Wednesday afternoon.

MDB

LONG TERM. 245 PM CST

Wednesday Night through Tuesday .

The mid to late week emphasis is on the prolonged snow event, which is one that looks mainly light apart from Friday-Friday night where at least some moderate snow at times seems likely. This is a challenging event to get too specific with details for several reasons: 1.) a closed upper low which is a feature well known for its trickiness, 2.) long duration event so naturally confidence lowers further out in time so difficult to communicate total snowfall amounts, and 3.) marginal surface temperatures with respect to freezing likely resulting in lower snow ratios and some compaction and melting over time, and thus the decent potential for multi-day snowfall totals to be less than incrementally adding up 6-hour forecasts. That all said, confidence on limited/marginal impacts through Thursday night is pretty high.

The current upper jet split flow pattern will have a northern stream buckle Wednesday night into Thursday over the middle of the country, with some phasing predicted in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. From this a closed upper level low has been consistently forecast to develop over the Central Plains into the Missouri River Valley. That phasing period late Thursday night through Friday will result in the system deepening. It is from that point forward that introduces some spread in guidance including from run-to-run especially in the GFS. As the system deepens, there should be a slightly north of east path taken especially with the surface low. Right now a model blend mean for the surface low track is south of the CWA, and the ECMWF has been consistently well south of the CWA. Also the pressures are not particularly deep and the surface low projected around 1010 mb during the day Friday. This points toward limited warm advection aloft for full melting in the upper levels and thus less of a concern for freezing rain - which commonly is a lower threat in closed low situations.

For precipitation onset Wednesday night into early Thursday, the anomalous upper level riding over the area tonight (in the upper 5th percentile for later January) will be gradually nudged out Wednesday night. Onset time has sped up slightly in guidance solutions today, with most CWA locations predicted to see light snow ongoing by first thing Thursday morning. Confidence on this is still somewhat low for the eastern CWA, including Chicago, but do believe snow to be at least moving in late Wednesday night or Thursday morning into the city. This "first half" of the event from Wednesday night through Thursday night will be in the upper right quadrant of the developing upper low, so driven by warm advection and broad upper level diffluence. The warm advection/isentropic ascent again is not overly strong, and the jet positioning would not reflect deep omega, so this points toward light precipitation rates. This looks to be mainly snow though surface temperatures that will not have dropped much Wednesday night should climb to slightly above freezing on Thursday. While it has been cold, the lighter rates and marginal low-level air temperatures will likely result in the snowfall struggling to accumulate on treated roads, and there could even be rain mixed in at times east and south in the CWA. After dark Thursday may be a better chance to get some snow to stick on such treated paved surfaces but again rates at this time look light.

This first half of the event by early Friday morning looks to produce a total of 1-2 inches east and 2-3.5 inches west, with those totals most reflective of grassy surfaces given the long duration. Again lighter rates and air temperatures should allow for fairly effective treatment on roads, where totals look to be less.

The "second half" of the event is when the system is deepening and that's why it may have a slightly different character. Also given the low trajectory, the atmospheric wind field becomes more northeasterly and then northerly, likely keeping precipitation type as snow apart from the southeast half of the CWA during the day Friday. If the mean model solution of forecast system deepening time and track ends up being near correct, there should be better upper level forcing and some mid-level baroclinicity Friday afternoon into night to support at least occasional moderate snow and potentially seeing a few to several inches during that 18 hour period or so. While confidence on accumulating snow for the CWA during that time is fairly high, amount details are quite low for all the aforementioned reasons. Also the best upper to mid-level forcing is not that persistent over the CWA in current model solutions.

The low looks to lose influence on the area into the day Saturday, but a clipper-like wave in the northern stream immediately on the heels keeps snow/snow shower chances going for Saturday in the forecast. This could result in additional minor accumulation but at this time Saturday is not looking like a big deal by itself thanks to the lack of a cold air surge into this system (not that atypical with a closed low). Also common with such a system is struggling to get the clouds out of the area which could be a problem the rest of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures right now for that period look to be slightly above normal.

MTF

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

No forecast concerns through Wednesday afternoon. High pressure crossing the area today will allow for southwesterly winds of around 10 kt this afternoon. Steady southwest winds continue tonight and turn a little more south-southwest or even south Wednesday morning. Gusts to around 20 kt are expected by Wednesday morning. VFR ceilings will lower from the west Wednesday afternoon. Further lowering to MVFR or lower is expected Wednesday evening/night with light snow chances increasing.

MDB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745 . 9 PM Tuesday to 3 PM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi64 min SW 9.9 G 13 28°F 1032.2 hPa (-2.7)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi34 min WSW 12 G 15 30°F 19°F
CNII2 37 mi19 min SSW 11 G 15 31°F 17°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi24 min SW 9.9 G 13 28°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi46 min WSW 7 G 11 30°F 1032.6 hPa18°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW7
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SW19
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi69 minSW 12 G 2010.00 miFair29°F16°F58%1034.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi71 minWSW 1010.00 miFair29°F19°F66%1033.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi72 minSW 1110.00 miFair30°F16°F56%1034.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N3NW4NW6NW5NW4NW3NW4W3W3SW4W3W3CalmSW6W3W3SW4SW9
G15
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G20
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1 day agoNW10
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NW7NW8NW9
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NW7NW6NW8NW7NW9NW6NW5NW7NW5NW5N5N6N5N9NE6N35
2 days agoW10
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G32
--W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.