Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 7:14 AM   Moonset 11:44 PM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 419 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers early. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely during the day, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 110552 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 152 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A brief break in the rain showers is expected this morning, before additional showers move in from the west this afternoon and evening. Additional scattered showers are expected Sunday through the middle of the upcoming week, before a brief break in the unsettled weather is expected later in the week. After cool conditions this weekend, temperatures will gradually warm-up this upcoming week.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
150 AM Update:

No changes were needed with this update. Previous discussions remain valid.

930 pm update...

Cloudy skies are across CNY with some clearing in NEPA and Sullivan County NY. Some valley fog has quickly shown up in the clearing area. Dewpoint depressions are already starting out at 2 or less so fog forming quickly makes sense. Temperatures will fall very slowly tonight. Increased low temperatures a little based on the lack of clearing and dry advection at the low levels.

520 pm update...

Mostly upped pops and cloud cover to better represent current conditions and trends. Clouds will be slower to leave tonight everywhere with showers hanging on into the overnight in Oneida County.

230 PM update...

Persistent rain will likely continue this afternoon into the early evening as a surface low slowly departs off of the Mid Atlantic coast. With some brief mid level ridging building in as well as a weak surface high, rain showers will become isolated and mostly limited to the higher terrain. Forecast soundings show some drying in the mid and upper levels as the ridge builds in but low level moisture hangs on. Given the steeper low level lapse rates in place, there is likely going to be enough mixing to get some pockets of clearing tonight. With the recent rain and high humidity, any clearing will result in fog formation.

Tomorrow starts off dry but a shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes region keeps clouds around as well as increase the chances for precipitation later in the day. Given the very cold air at 500 mb, it wont take much heating to get instability so started chances of precipitation a few hours earlier than model guidance. Thunder is also possible in the afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves in. Forecast soundings have the EL of the surface cape reaching above -20c so that is just enough to get some lightning despite the colder temperatures. The shortwave will slow its progression as it moves into the northeast so chances of rain showers persist through tomorrow night.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
115 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next couple bouts of rain showers and some afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

The seasonably cooler air will remain in place on Sunday as a stacked low pressure system rotates eastward through the Northeast US. This system should have enough deep layer moisture (around a half inch PW), and sufficient synoptic forcing to trigger scattered rain showers across the region. The showers should be hit and miss for the most part. The other area of interest on Sunday will be the threat for pop-up thunderstorms.
Temperatures aloft are expected to be quite cold (500 mb T around -25 deg C), which should trigger some isolated convection as the system moves through during the day Mother's Day. Severe weather is not expected. The only threat will be for cloud to ground lightning.

Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday will only reach into the upper 50s to near 60, and overnight lows Sunday night will be chilly once again...falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The cool pattern will start to change on Monday as weak surface ridging and a wedge of deep dry air moves through the region.
The cold air mass will shift to the east and warmer conditions will start to push in from the southwest. Surface temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to near 70 later in the day Monday with mostly sunny skies early in the day. A weak cold front will drop in from the northwest later in the day and allow cloud cover to increase, along with the chances for showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms as well. The increasing temperature and moisture in the boundary layer will allow more potential instability to be present Monday afternoon and early evening.
The forcing along the front and the steep low and mid level lapse rates will lead to some convection scattered across the region. At this time it appears the threat for severe weather is very low.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
115 PM update...

A weak cold front dropping south across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast US will stall out Monday night into Tuesday and become quasi-stationary, basically WSW-ENE across the area through the day. The slow-moving nature of this front will keep the threat of rain across the region in place potentially all the way through Wednesday afternoon. There will also be a minor threat of thunderstorms during the this time given the rich air mass south of the front and relatively strong upper level dynamics due to the presence of a couple upper level jet structure over NY and PA. This time period is still quite far out, but if this pattern holds, this could be something to pay close attention to Tue into Wed.

Drier air starts to move in by Thursday along with a building upper level ridge of high pressure from the west. This pattern will allow conditions to dry out going into the latter half of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the 60s and 70s...and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Restrictions have once again been a bit slower than originally anticipated to move in as of 06Z, but the expectation is that widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions will move in over the next few hours, along with occasional IFR restrictions. It is uncertain if these restrictions will be more from low ceilings or visby restrictions from patchy fog/mist. KAVP is expected to remain VFR.

A return to VFR is expected at all terminals by the late morning/early afternoon, before additional MVFR restrictions start to move in from the west this evening with the next batch of showers.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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