Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hamtramck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday December 8, 2019 8:05 AM EST (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:12PMMoonset 3:52AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201910270922;;927514 Fzus73 Kdtx 270913 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-270922- /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0061.000000t0000z-191027t0915z/ 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 am edt... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8295 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4266 8255 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4238 8282 4232 8306 4224 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4199 8314 4195 8329 time...mot...loc 0912z 210deg 39kt 4330 8288 4297 8249
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamtramck, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 081058 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 558 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

AVIATION.

VFR conditions to start this TAF period with cirrus streaming overhead this morning. Conditions will deteriorate throughout the day into tonight as advancing low level moisture leads to MVFR stratus developing during the mid-day period. Strong low level winds will be able to mix down to the surface bringing gusty winds up to around 25 knots out of the southwest. Will preclude mention of LLWS given the steady increase in winds with height. Light rain showers will develop over terminals after 00Z this evening with ceilings dropping to IFR into tomorrow morning with fog also a possibility with the milder air moving into southeast Michigan. More moderate rain showers develop late in this TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet after 16z today and into tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 358 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

DISCUSSION .

Increasing south wind helps lift temperatures above normal today while gusts near 30 mph add some harshness to otherwise favorable weather for early December. Expect a partly sunny start to the day under thickening cirrus followed by stratus that quickly moves in from the Mississippi valley during the morning. This snuffs out any benefit of daytime surface heating such as it is this time of year, however the strong southerly flow makes up for it by carrying milder air in on trajectories originating near the Gulf coast. It is a Gulf modified continental air mass but still capable of bringing lower to mid 40s dewpoint into Lower Michigan as the temperature rises into the mid and upper 40s by late afternoon.

Precipitation holds off through today but the low level warm and moist advection sets the table for rain development tonight as a cold front and low pressure approach from the west. Deep moisture transport ahead of the system brings precipitable water up to around 0.75 inch with 850 mb dewpoint near +5C, a moisture supply that is above the 90th percentile in climatology for this time of year. A general pattern of isentropic lift gets things started during the evening which increasingly interacts with left exit region forcing from the approaching upper level jet after midnight. Fog is also likely to accompany the mild air and saturated boundary layer as showers become widespread after midnight through Monday morning.

Temperatures hold mostly in the 40s to start Monday which is a head start toward highs capable of 50 during the afternoon. The warm air holds despite widespread rain showers ongoing as the associated short wave and surface low ripple along the cold front. The system moves into Lake Huron by Monday evening which allows the front to sweep through Lower Michigan. There remains some potential for lighter precipitation along and behind the front Monday night as the upper jet stays aligned with the low level temperature gradient and as a stronger mid level wave moves out of the long wave trough still to our west. A coating of snow is then possible as cold air rapidly surges in through the low levels. Model soundings indicate a change over to snow by midnight in the Tri Cities and Thumb while taking a little longer toward the Ohio border where precipitation ends before the change occurs.

Rain and snow associated with the low pressure system end by sunrise Tuesday morning. The day starts with temperatures in the 20s most locations with readings steady or falling through the day. The incoming cold air initiates moderate intensity lake effect snow showers that make it into SE Michigan with at least scattered coverage. Model soundings indicate convective depth near 6 kft during the morning before low level dry air and boundary layer mixing become a limiting factor during the afternoon. Parameters recover Tuesday night which may turn out to be the best time period for any organized banding stretching this far east. Model soundings indicate convective depth building back to near 7 kft with some reinforcement of low level cold air and low level support provided by a surface trough moving through the region.

The mid to late week period is set up by high pressure building over the western and central Great Lakes. This cuts off any lingering lake effect snow showers during Wednesday as the low level wind field veers NW. The core of cold air remains in place as shown by an aggressive guidance temperature forecast indicating high temperatures that struggle to reach the 20s by Wednesday afternoon, especially in the Saginaw valley. High pressure moving eastward then starts a warming trend Thursday with temperatures warming above freezing again by Friday. This is followed by the next chance of meaningful rain and snow with a low pressure system moving in this weekend.

MARINE .

Strong southwest flow over the lakes today will lead to gale force gusts across central Lake Huron into this afternoon - gusts as high as 40 knots where southwest fetch is maximized. A Gale Warning remains in effect through this afternoon for the central open waters of Lake Huron while a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Saginaw Bay and the nearshore waters surrounding the Thumb for enhanced wave action.

A low pressure system will track through the Great Lakes on Monday and bring widespread rain to the region. Snow showers then become more likely late Monday night the low departs and ushers in a much colder air mass. Winds look to remain below gales at this time, but expect a fresh northwest wind and increased wave activity, especially over the open waters of Lake Huron, on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY .

An extended period of rainfall begins Sunday night and continues through Monday. Mild air with high moisture content for this time of year fuels a cold front and low pressure system moving across the region. Local probability guidance suggests rainfall totals approach a half inch. Locally higher totals are possible in locations where heavier showers occur repeatedly but with only a small chance to exceed an inch. A transition to mixed rain and snow is possible if any precipitation lingers long enough after the cold front moves through Monday night and Tuesday morning. The expected rainfall tonight and Monday may lead to ponding of water in prone areas and small rises on area rivers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ362-363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . AA DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi25 min S 7 G 16 33°F 1020 hPa
AGCM4 32 mi47 min 35°F 39°F1020.1 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi65 min S 18 G 21 35°F
TWCO1 48 mi25 min SSW 16 G 18
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 53 mi47 min S 9.9 G 14 33°F 1020.6 hPa22°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI4 mi73 minS 1110.00 miFair33°F25°F72%1021.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI13 mi71 minS 10 G 1410.00 miFair33°F25°F74%1020.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi73 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F24°F79%1021.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi70 minS 1110.00 miFair33°F29°F88%1020.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi71 minSSW 14 G 1910.00 miFair34°F27°F75%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmSW5SW4S7S7S8S6S5S5S5S5S6S7S6S9S7S10S10S8S11S11S10
1 day agoNW11
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N6NW6NW4NW4NW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW5NW10
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W5W6CalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE4S4S5S5SW6SW6SW8SW7W6W7W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.