Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamtramck, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:04PM Monday July 22, 2019 6:21 PM EDT (22:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:16PMMoonset 10:36AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 228 Am Edt Sun Jul 21 2019
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 227 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 50 nm northwest of luna pier to near grosse ile, moving east at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... Grosse ile, elizabeth park marina, gibraltar, estral beach, bolles harbor of refuge, woodland beach, stony point, Monroe harbor, detroit river light, north cape, belle isle, grosse pointe, luna pier, wyandotte, lake erie metropark harbor, detroit beach and the ambassador bridge. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8295 4245 8291 4245 8287 4240 8288 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341
LCZ423 Expires:201907210800;;390787 FZUS73 KDTX 210628 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 228 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-210800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamtramck, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221949
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
349 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Discussion
Leading edge of a midlevel trough is moving southeast through se
michigan this afternoon on the heels of an upper jet streak moving
into new england. This is bringing a reinforcing surge of cool
northerly flow into this evening with 850mb temps expected to settle
to around 9 or 10 c. Abundant dry air in the column and good
isentropic downglide will help clear any lingering clouds out later
today and lead to clear skies tonight. Winds will weaken but
probably not go calm given the northerly gradient in place, but
still a decent setup for radiational cooling. Will see lows fall to
the lower 50s for most of the area and mid to upper 50s in the urban
heat island of metro detroit. Northerly flow over the long fetch of
lake huron will continue to produce hazardous conditions for small
craft along the northern and eastern thumb shoreline into this
evening, as will northeast wind in saginaw bay. Minor lakeshore
flooding is possible in these areas into this evening as well.

Tuesday will see a quick rebound in temperatures with ample early
day insolation. The boundary layer will deepen to about 800mb by the
afternoon and highs will be comfortable in the mid to upper 70s. The
main story for tomorrow will be driven by the shortwave currently
over western ontario. This energy will drop through central lower
michigan during peak heating, with the cooler air aloft (500mb temps
dipping to around -17 c) contributing to good midlevel lapse rates
of about 7 c km. Instability will be respectable with 500 to 1000
j kg of MLCAPE likely to develop by the afternoon - highest values
west of us-23. It looks like just enough moisture will accompany the
wave to lead to a high-end chance of showers with a few
thunderstorms possible as well. With the cold air overhead, expect
wet bulb zero heights to fall to around 8kft which may allow some
small hail to reach the ground with the strongest updrafts.

Convective activity wanes with the loss of daytime heating, leading
into a mostly quiet Tuesday night with skies clearing again. Lows
look to fall to the mid 50s for most of the region.

A secondary wave will dive into the great lakes Tuesday night and
push the midlevel trough off to the east, allowing heights to
rebound over the region into Wednesday. A ridge of surface high
pressure will build throughout the day and dry weather will prevail
with light winds. The coolest air will move off to the east and
another day with plenty of sunshine will allow highs to climb to
around 80 degrees. Lows Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer
than Tuesday night.

Tranquil conditions are expected during the first part of the
extended period as surface high pressure with upper level ridging
resides over the eastern midwest Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will be on the rise for SE mi starting Thursday as warm air
advection ramps up under modified S SW flow. By Saturday, h5 heights
will once again build to around 588 dam which correlates with near
surface MAX temps returning to near 90 degrees. H8 temps also
support this warming trend with 12z potential temps above 300k.

Depending on the evolution of a slowly progressing longwave trough,
isolated portions of the tri-cities and thumb areas may see a few
showers or thunderstorms on Saturday, but current guidance suggests
the axis may not deepen much beyond northern lower michigan. The
potential exists for a few showers storms on Sunday as shortwave
energy works through the base of the trough in the presence of
elevated moisture as dewpoints press into the upper 60s. Next
opportunity for a more dramatic cool-down comes late Monday or early
Tuesday of next week as a cold front translates along a better
defined baroclinic zone producing more widespread coverage of
showers ahead of the boundary and northwest flow in its wake.

Marine
Ongoing low level cold air advection in advance of high pressure
expanding across the upper midwest is resulting in unstable over-
lake conditions. This is leading to gusty northerly winds and
hazardous conditions for small craft across southern lake huron. The
gradient will strengthen a bit this evening, which will sustain the
gusty northerly winds into the night. Winds and waves will slowly
decrease on Tuesday as the gradient relaxes. Light north-northwest
winds will persist into the day Wednesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1241 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019
aviation...

there is an ongoing push of colder air across lower mi along and
behind a mid level trough axis. While there is a region of mid high
level clouds associated with the mid level trough, diurnal heating
within the cooler low level airmass has led to the development of
sct-bkn cumulus; with bases ranging from 2k ft up to 4k ft. The
growth of the daytime boundary layer will lead to an upward trend in
the bases of the CU during the course of the afternoon.

For dtw... A northerly gradient and increase in the wind speeds with
daytime heating this afternoon will sustain winds around 10 knots
from 350 to 020 degrees. There will be a tendency for wind speeds to
decrease after sunset, although an increasing northerly gradient
will inhibit boundary layer decoupling, thus keeping at least a light
wind into the night.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz048-049-
055-063.

Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz048-
049-054-055-063.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Tf kk
marine... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi81 min NNW 12 G 16 74°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 19 mi81 min NNW 14 G 16 73°F 74°F2 ft1012.7 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 32 mi51 min 73°F 73°F1013.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi41 min NW 20 G 22 73°F
45165 48 mi21 min NNW 16 G 19 74°F 79°F2 ft58°F
TWCO1 48 mi31 min N 14 G 20
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 53 mi51 min NW 12 G 18 74°F 1013.9 hPa55°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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W6
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI4 mi28 minN 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F57°F54%1013.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI13 mi26 minN 9 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F53°F48%1014.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi28 minNNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F55°F50%1013.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi86 minN 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F59°F57%1013.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi25 minN 710.00 miFair75°F55°F51%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE7E6E5N7N6N3E4CalmN4N5N5NE6N6N7N9NE5NE7NW7NW8NW8
G14
N11N10N11
1 day agoW13
G19
N5CalmS6S7SW8NW10
G17
N7N5NW4N3NW4CalmN4CalmCalmW3SE8E8NE65E8E8E10
2 days agoSW13
G21
SW6NW3CalmNW4CalmE3CalmW6SW7W9NW5W5S7SW8SW10SW10SW14SW11SW10SW14SW13W13
G20
W14
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.