Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 2:14 PM   Moonset 3:49 AM

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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0001.000000t0000z-240417t2030z/ 418 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Detroit river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4202 8316 4202 8319 4204 8325 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8295 4241 8293 4238 8292 4235 8293 4232 8307 4229 8310 4224 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4205 8315 4201 8314 time - .mot - .loc 2017z 260deg 45kt 4254 8270 4237 8259 4218 8258

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 181956 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain tonight as a cold front tracks through the region. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

- Showers exit Friday morning with drier and cooler weather heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Low and mid level ridging entrenched locally late this afternoon, immediately downstream of a broadening corridor of height falls emanating off a closed mid level circulation pivoting into western Ontario. Active southern stream pv and upper jet energy undercutting this height fall gradient will prompt a respectable low and mid level response offering an axis of meaningful northward moisture transport within the background ongoing warm air advection. This process occurs as the associated surface reflection and attendant frontal boundary migrate across lower Michigan tonight. Ongoing higher based isentropic ascent currently offering some thicker cirrus with a representative signal of virga/sprinkles across the Saginaw valley, but limited moisture quality or supportive ascent lends to otherwise dry conditions holding this evening. Peak in both upward vertical motion and theta-e quality occurs over roughly a 6 hour window from 04z to 10z as fgen strengthens along the northwest flank of the passing surface low. This will support a high coverage of rain within this window, with some elevated thunder potential given the magnitude of theta-e advection. Rainfall totals from one quarter to one half inch remain on track.

Aforementioned closed low remains a fixture Friday and Saturday as it slowly migrates across central Ontario. Modest height falls within the post-frontal environment nets an associated cooling trend this period. Weak advective process initially leaves highs solidly in the 50s Friday. A secondary frontal passage Friday night offers a reinforcing shot of colder air with a more noteworthy downward adjustment for Saturday with highs upper 40s/lower 50s. Firm pressure gradient with sufficient wind magnitude affords a standard increase in gustiness of west winds with daytime heating both days.
Dry conditions hold this period as moisture depth remains too limited to generate anything outside of a broader stratocu field within weakly cyclonic mid level flow. Dry and seasonable conditions remain through the end of the weekend. Brief recovery of mid level heights then brings a modest warming trend heading into early next week.

MARINE

A cold front sags south through the central Great Lakes tonight into Friday morning bringing widespread showers as well as a slight chance for a couple nonsevere thunderstorms over the southern lakes.
Upper level troughing expands over the Great Lakes following the frontal passage allowing a cooler airmass to settle over the region through this weekend. A destabilizing overlake thermal profile supports moderate west to northwest flow for this timeframe as peak gusts over northern Lake Huron top out in the 25-30kt range, with 20- 25kts generally favored over the remainder of the area.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

AVIATION...

Increasing cirrus this afternoon will become obscured by a return to MVFR cigs overnight tonight as an area of showers accompany a cold front.
IFR ceiling restrictions after 06Z are not high probability but certainly possible. As noted before, wind direction will fluctuate substantially between now and 12Z Friday as the cold front traverses the area.
There is a couple hour window centered around 06Z tonight where there will be a low probability for thunder across extreme southeast Lower Michigan and this could brush KYIP. However, this remains too improbable at this time to warrant mentioning in the terminals.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 ft after 04z-06z tonight.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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