Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:18PM Monday August 26, 2019 3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:12AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0049.000000t0000z-190821t0145z/ 913 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4279 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4249 8284 4266 8284 4272 8269 4269 8260 4265 8259 4265 8255 4266 8255 4276 8251 4290 8251 4295 8249 4295 8243 time...mot...loc 0111z 222deg 32kt 4279 8263 4269 8267 4251 8275
LCZ423 Expires:201908210121;;958666 FZUS73 KDTX 210113 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 913 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 LCZ423-210121-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260351
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1151 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail into Monday morning as dry low level
southeast flow around high pressure over quebec continues. Moisture
will then increase steadily with approach of shortwave from the west
with CIGS in around 5kft thicken by early afternoon and rain showers
becoming increasingly likely during the mid late afternoon. In fact,
showers should prevail by the 22z-24z time frame and persist into
the evening as CIGS drop to at least MVFR. Winds will gust to 20
knots or a bit more again on Monday as pressure gradient remains in
place as this system nudges into the area.

For dtw... Cigs AOB 5kft will become increasingly likely after 18z on
Monday with rain showers developing after 21z. CIGS will drop
further and may approach ifr after 01z at the end of the forecast.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium for CIGS at or below 5,000 by 18z Monday, high Monday
evening into Monday night.

Prev discussion
Issued at 339 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
discussion...

center of sprawling anticyclone is retreating to the canadian
maritimes this afternoon as surface ridge axis holds steady back
through the central great lakes. Dense cumulus field this afternoon
over much of the area characterized as bkn to even ovc. 25.12z dtx
raob captured a very stout subsidence inversion at approximately 4.0
kft agl that obviously did not budge per ceilometer observations.

Over achievement of diurnal clouds appears to be from large supply
of lake erie moisture ducted under the stout inversion. Expecting
cloud to thin out erode quickly with the setting Sun before opaque
high cloud arrives.

The ridging influence will hold over southeast michigan throughout
the overnight and first half of Monday with deeply anticyclonic flow
trajectories in place from the surface through 500mb. The atmosphere
is going to need a good amount of time to saturate based on residual
stability subsidence forecasted between 4.0 and 14.0 kft agl.

Removed pops before 18z.

Combination of tropical theta E content from mid to southern
mississippi river valley and convective shortwave midlevel moisture
from the central plains will result in a wall of theta E content
advecting directly into the forecast area Monday afternoon. Models
show an upright warm front lifting directly into southeast michigan
between 18-03z. Remarkable parameter space for the moisture with
pwats rising from less than .8 inch at 15z to greater than 1.90
inches by 00z Tuesday. Moist adiabatic lapse rates will preclude a
severe weather risk. Main item of concern will be torrential
rainfall rates with deep shower thunderstorm activity. There is
expected to be a strong component of warm frontal surface
propagation that will lead to progressive convective element
behavior. Additionally, there are no discernible mesoscale
features circulations to key off at this time. Therefore, expecting
rainfall during the late afternoon early evening activity to remain
in check despite a thermodynamic environment that will become
rapidly supportive of heavy rainfall.

A second period of possible broader coverage of rainfall... Albeit
brief... Will exist between 09-12z as enhanced axis of convergence
from forward edge of low level jet axis pushes into southeast
michigan. This forcing will also align with a theta E maximum.

Fresh geopotential height falls off of potential vorticity anomaly
barreling into far western great lakes will cause a midlevel trough
to accelerate surge through lake michigan by Tuesday morning. The
end result will be a well organized cold front that will push
through southeast michigan between 15-21z tues. The actual passage
will not require that much time, however, some uncertainty in the
data exists with timing of the front frontal passage. At this time
severe weather potential appears very low. There is some signal in
the model data that a pre-frontal trough could sweep out higher
instability potential before main cold front dynamics arrive. Nwp
supports a highly organize frontal dynamics with this system with
strong frontolysis signal approximately 21z. Could see significant
increase in non-convective west wind gusts late afternoon early
Tuesday evening.

Amplified upper-level trough axis and embedded shortwaves will move
east across the great lakes Wednesday morning into the afternoon and
will flatten out as the axis travels east into new york new england
area. Cannot totally rule out some stray showers mainly across the
tri-cities into the thumb tied to the stronger forcing, however,
with weak isentropic downglide subsidence in place, will be hard
pressed to produce any meaningful precipitation. The potential will
exist to see gusty conditions during the daylight hours on Wednesday
as an increase in mechanical mixing taps into stronger winds aloft.

Upper-level flow to then turn zonal over the great lakes starting
late Wednesday into early Thursday as broad surface high pressure
system centers over the tennessee valley north into the ohio valley.

Northern periphery of the high pressure system to bring dry
conditions to SE mi through the midweek period while zonal flow to
bring little change to day-to-day temperatures, with highs holding
steady in the 70s and lows in the 50s (lower 60s over urban metro
area).

Models continue to try and resolve a possible cold front passing
through SE mi sometime between Friday 18 - Saturday 18z, but still
too much divergence noted across model runs to pinpoint rain and
timing potential. Latest ECMWF model run starts to push the cold
front across central michigan 12z Friday but the frontal boundary
stalls across central michigan before advancing Saturday, bringing
rain and thunderstorm chances over the weekend. The GFS is quick to
advance the cold front across the state throughout Friday, which
would then bring dry weather on Saturday. Overall, will continue to
hold pops at slight chance later this week until potential frontal
passage is resolved within models.

Marine...

high pressure maintaining influence over the central great lakes as
it departs east towards the canadian maritime. The result is east to
southeast winds across marine zones that are remaining mostly around
15 knots or below. The next system across the plains will begin to
impact the region as it moves into the western great lakes tomorrow.

Pressure gradient will tighten and result in increasing southeast
flow tomorrow veering more southerly by Tuesday. Wind speeds will be
around 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25-30 knots during this
time likely causing hazardous boating conditions for small crafts.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms also increase Monday afternoon
into Tuesday. Cold front swings through on Tuesday bringing a wind
shift out of the west by Tuesday evening as winds decrease in
strength.

Hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across
southeast michigan Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A moist airmass
will be encroaching on the area characterized by dewpoints in the 60s
and precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. The result will
be the potential for locally heavy rainfall with any convective
activity on Monday and again with the cold front on Tuesday. Basin-
average rainfall totals will be around 0.50 to 0.75 inches. Isolated
totals of 1 inch or more from stronger thunderstorms and or
locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be
possible. The main concern will be potential for localized flooding
of prone urban locations if highter totals set up across these
areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Monday through Monday
afternoon for miz049-055.

Lakeshore flood advisory from 8 am Monday to 5 am edt Tuesday for
miz049-055.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 4 pm edt Tuesday for
lhz441-442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... CB am
marine... ... .Aa
hydrology... .Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi61 min SE 17 G 19 71°F 1019 hPa (-1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 28 mi61 min Calm 71°F 72°F1 ft1019 hPa (-0.5)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi41 min SE 22 G 24 72°F
AGCM4 39 mi55 min 62°F 72°F1019.3 hPa
45165 47 mi21 min E 16 G 19 70°F 73°F2 ft55°F
TWCO1 47 mi21 min SSE 21 G 25 74°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi43 min ESE 11 G 15 67°F 1017.9 hPa53°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi68 minESE 610.00 miFair67°F53°F61%1018.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi62 minSE 410.00 miFair69°F55°F62%1019.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi68 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F55°F68%1018.4 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi64 minSSE 11 G 2010.00 miFair71°F55°F59%1018.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi68 minESE 610.00 miFair63°F55°F78%1018.2 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi68 minESE 610.00 miFair64°F55°F75%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5NE5NE5NE5E9E9NE10
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1 day agoN4N3N4NW3N7NE5NE10
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2 days agoN4N3N4N3N3N6N4NE9
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3NE9W5E10NE12
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NE6NE7NE6N5N6N6N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.