Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:12PM Thursday July 9, 2020 6:43 AM EDT (10:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:17PMMoonset 9:30AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 947 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 946 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located over lake erie metropark harbor, moving east at 15 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near, lake erie metropark harbor around 950 pm edt. Detroit river light around 955 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and gibraltar around 1000 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach and detroit beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4190 8334 4195 8334 4196 8328 4212 8323 4213 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4189 8321
LCZ423 Expires:202007080245;;492263 FZUS73 KDTX 080147 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-080245-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 090830 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 430 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

DISCUSSION.

Better organization of low- to mid-level southwest flow sets up today as the mid-level ridge axis has advanced east of the area. While this wind is weak (below 15 kt), it will sustain temperature and moisture advection into SE Michigan today with 850mb temps hovering around 19 to 20C and sfc dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another hot and muggy day is in store with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees this afternoon. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include all counties in SE Michigan except for the Thumb. Thinking that the lake breeze and an earlier start to convection in the Thumb will keep the heat index in check there. This will be the eighth consecutive 90+ degree day for Metro Detroit and the ninth for Flint.

Scattered showers and storms are again looking to initiate today as surface convergence enhanced by the lake breezes will capitalize on good instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a weakly capped environment. An uptick in convective coverage may be noted today compared to yesterday as subtle height falls arrive by the afternoon while the resident ridge continues to depart to the east. Wind shear will be weak /on the order of 10 to 15 kt/ and disorganized slow- moving pop-up showers and storms will again be the convective mode today. The pulse-type convection will quickly become outflow dominant and is not likely to become severe, but as seen the past couple days, a few localized strong microburst wind gusts are certainly possible in the more robust updrafts as they become precip loaded. Heavy downpours can be expected in any activity. Any storms will provide brief relief from the heat but will only enhance the humidity for this evening. Another warm and muggy night tonight with lows staying in the 70s.

A pattern shift commences over the Great Lakes as a longwave trough moves in from the Midwest tonight into Friday. Model guidance continues to hone in on a shortwave developing from last night's convection over SD/NE which then tracks east into the local area by late Friday. With largely the same air mass still in place early Friday, looking at another warm and muggy day but with considerably more cloud cover and convection moving in ahead of the wave during the late morning and afternoon. The best forcing for widespread showers and storms arrives during the evening. Wind shear on the order of 20 to 25 kt will be slightly more supportive of storm organization compared to recent days, but at this time the severe weather threat still looks low. Instability remains a question mark at this point with uncertainty in how early day activity evolves.

The longwave trough then receives reinforcement over the Great Lakes this weekend from several Pacific shortwaves that track over the periphery of the Four Corners ridge. This keeps a cooler northwest flow pattern overhead with temperatures returning closer to normal and humidity lowering for the weekend and early next week. Will keep chance PoPs in place for this period as showers and storms will be possible while the troughing resides overhead and the shortwave impulses track through. The best chance currently looks to arrive Sunday. Mid-range model guidance depicts an Ohio/Tennessee Valley ridge developing by mid week which directs in a plume of hot air from the central Mississippi Valley. This likely brings the return of hot and humid conditions for the midweek period.

MARINE.

A weak pressure gradient across the region will persist through Thursday night while providing light and variable winds across the region. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will exist on Thursday but remain primarily over land areas where instability will be a little greater. A weak area of low pressure will then move across Lower Michigan on Friday. This system will bring a much better chance for thunderstorms to the marine areas. This system will also result in light south-southeast winds across the marine areas Friday with winds backing toward the northwest by Saturday as the low pressure system moves east of the region.

HYDROLOGY.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur across portions of southeast Michigan this afternoon and evening. Given precipitable water values around 1.50 inches, heavy downpours will be possible in thunderstorms which will be slow-moving and may lead to over an inch of rainfall for localized areas. Should this occur over urban or poor drainage areas, minor flooding may become a concern.

Showers and storms then become more likely on Friday with the best chance for widespread activity Friday afternoon and evening. A basin- averaged 0.50 to 1.00 inches is forecast across southeast Michigan, with any thunderstorms likely leading to locally higher totals. With antecedent dry conditions, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. However, urban, low-lying, and otherwise flood-prone areas that see numerous rounds of storms may experience minor flooding.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

AVIATION .

Benign weather conditions through the morning period, sufficient low level stability ensuring simply some patches of thicker high based cloud at times. A light southerly or variable wind during this time. Steady destabilization of the resident hot and humid environment will again present a window from mid afternoon into the evening hours for possible thunderstorm development Thursday. An outflow dominant expansion in coverage means any terminal will remain susceptible to activity during this time. A defined mention may become necessary as confidence of occurrence improves. Otherwise, standard high based diurnal cu at sct/bkn coverage in modest southerly winds.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Heat Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ047-048-053-060>062- 068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . DRK HYDROLOGY . TF AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi43 min W 1 G 1.9 75°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 28 mi43 min S 3.9 G 5.8 77°F1011.4 hPa (+0.1)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi103 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 79°F
AGCM4 39 mi55 min 71°F 73°F1013.2 hPa
TWCO1 47 mi33 min SSW 7 G 8 79°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi55 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1013.3 hPa68°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi1.8 hrsWSW 39.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1012.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair74°F70°F86%1013.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi50 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F68°F87%1013 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi67 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F70°F91%1012.9 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi50 minN 07.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1013 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi50 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds72°F68°F87%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4SW3S33S6S6S10W11
G25
NE5CalmSW4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmW3Calm
1 day agoCalmNW3NW335NW33N43Calm5SE8NE11
G18
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SE5S8S6S13S5W8W5NW3S5Calm
2 days agoCalmS3S434S4--S8S11
G16
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SW4S7S7S3SW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.