Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 242346 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 646 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

AVIATION.

Low level moisture feed is aimed directly at Southeast Michigan this evening as the center of closed low pressure system is over far southern Illinois. Models indicate a dry slot will spread due northward directly through all of the cwa by 06Z this evening. This will end much of the support for the moderate rain potential. Given moist low level conditions, expectations are for LIFR cigs, fog and drizzle to fill in. Uncertainty exists with regards to the overall potential for VLIFR conditions of cigs 200 ft or less and visbys less than 1/2SM. Steady low column cold advection will lead to steepening lapse rates in the boundary layer and help in persistence for IFR cig heights during the daytime. There is low confidence in timing of improving cig heights Saturday night.

For DTW . Moist axis directly over DTW and nightfall will promote lowering cig heights and denser fog development. Uncertainty exists whether or not VLIFR flight conditions will impact DTW tonight. Cold advection Saturday will eventually allow some snow flakes to mix in Saturday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.

* High in ptype as rain tonight. Moderate in a rain/wet snow mix Saturday afternoon.

* Low to moderate in ceilings and/or visibilities below 1/2SM and/or 200 feet for a brief time tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 337 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

DISCUSSION .

Ongoing moisture transport in association with the closed low system centered over Illinois will continue to fuel light to moderate rain showers this afternoon and evening before an expansive dry slot wraps around the low and pushes through SE MI after 00Z. Upper-level closed low will then continue to slowly meander towards Michigan tonight, eventually settling over lower Michigan by 18Z Saturday. An occluded front will draw north with the low late tonight and will result in the veering of winds from the east to south and eventually southwest, producing a slight uptick in moisture as overnight lows and dew points reside in the mid-30s. This set-up will be conducive for advection fog given the current snowpack, raising concerns for areas of dense fog overnight. Dense fog has been observed upstream across MO/IL/IN and increases confidence that this areas of fog will edge north with the front.

Any fog development will hold on through the late morning/early afternoon but will lead into another dreary day marked by continuous overcast skies and on-off drizzle to eventual wintry mix during daylight hours. Return flow from the departing low will cool the column throughout the late afternoon and evening, transitioning any liquid precipitation over to snow. Overall, given the broad scale and weak forcing with the system, only expected snowfall total accumulations to peak around a half-inch of slushy accumulation by Sunday morning. Some models also suggest the stripping of moisture in the DGZ early Sunday morning, so will need to keep an eye out for a transition back to drizzle or freezing drizzle.

Westerly flow on Sunday to ensure another overcast day with renewed rain/snow chances given wrap around moisture from the departing low/support from PV anomaly, in addition to westerly flow tapping moisture from Lake Huron. It is not until the passage of a cold front, forecasted to push through on Monday, that brings the next potential to see a break from precipitation. Despite the passage of the prospective front, decent confidence from ensemble members regarding little fluctuation with temperatures leading into the mid- week period as highs hold in the mid-30s and gradually warming back up into the upper-30s later in the week. Thus, high confidence for above normal temperatures in the extended period.

MARINE .

Easterly winds will slowly start veering to northwesterly late this evening through Saturday night as the low center crosses the lower peninsula. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow lasting through the day Sunday. The low is not particularly strong with a weaker pressure gradient reducing the overall wind potential. Some mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface could lead to some gusts around 30kts tonight over northern/central Lake Huron, but this will only be for a couple hours. There is a small craft advisory along the Thumb Friday night as southeast flow creates higher wave action in the nearshore zone.

HYDROLOGY .

Slow moving low pressure system will continue pushing into lower Michigan late tonight and overnight, however, heaviest of the rainfall will be observed through the afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall will taper off late tonight and will transition over to more of a mist/drizzle leading into Saturday. Storm total accumulation from this afternoon's rainfall through tomorrow afternoon will range between one-quarter inch to one-half inch. Ponding of water in flood prone areas will be possible with additional rainfall, but given the longer event duration and lighter to moderate rainfall intensity, no major flooding concerns expected.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . KK HYDROLOGY . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	18 mi	38 min	E 15 G 18	35°F			1010.2 hPa (-1.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	38 mi	38 min	E 8.9 G 8.9	36°F
AGCM4	39 mi	56 min		37°F	34°F		1010.9 hPa
TWCO1	47 mi	28 min	S 7 G 8
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	50 mi	56 min	W 1 G 2.9	35°F			1009.5 hPa	34°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	10 mi	45 min	ESE 9	4.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	37°F	36°F	96%	1010.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	11 mi	42 min	E 7	3.00 mi	Light Rain	36°F	36°F	100%	1010.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	12 mi	45 min	E 5	0.50 mi	Light Drizzle Fog/Mist	37°F	37°F	100%	1010.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	19 mi	43 min	ESE 5	3.00 mi	Fog/Mist	38°F	37°F	97%	1009.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	20 mi	45 min	E 6	2.50 mi	Fog/Mist	38°F	36°F	93%	1009.8 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI	23 mi	45 min	E 9	2.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	36°F	34°F	93%	1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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