Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:37PM Friday January 24, 2020 8:38 PM EST (01:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-191230t1215z/ 714 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 715 am est... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The wind shift has moved out of the warned area. Lat...lon 4173 8349 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4223 8319 4234 8310 4237 8299 4235 8294 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1214z 232deg 43kt 4292 8284 4267 8247 4234 8204
LCZ423 Expires:201912301224;;155656 FZUS73 KDTX 301214 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 714 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-301224-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 242346 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 646 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

AVIATION.

Low level moisture feed is aimed directly at Southeast Michigan this evening as the center of closed low pressure system is over far southern Illinois. Models indicate a dry slot will spread due northward directly through all of the cwa by 06Z this evening. This will end much of the support for the moderate rain potential. Given moist low level conditions, expectations are for LIFR cigs, fog and drizzle to fill in. Uncertainty exists with regards to the overall potential for VLIFR conditions of cigs 200 ft or less and visbys less than 1/2SM. Steady low column cold advection will lead to steepening lapse rates in the boundary layer and help in persistence for IFR cig heights during the daytime. There is low confidence in timing of improving cig heights Saturday night.

For DTW . Moist axis directly over DTW and nightfall will promote lowering cig heights and denser fog development. Uncertainty exists whether or not VLIFR flight conditions will impact DTW tonight. Cold advection Saturday will eventually allow some snow flakes to mix in Saturday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.

* High in ptype as rain tonight. Moderate in a rain/wet snow mix Saturday afternoon.

* Low to moderate in ceilings and/or visibilities below 1/2SM and/or 200 feet for a brief time tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 337 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

DISCUSSION .

Ongoing moisture transport in association with the closed low system centered over Illinois will continue to fuel light to moderate rain showers this afternoon and evening before an expansive dry slot wraps around the low and pushes through SE MI after 00Z. Upper-level closed low will then continue to slowly meander towards Michigan tonight, eventually settling over lower Michigan by 18Z Saturday. An occluded front will draw north with the low late tonight and will result in the veering of winds from the east to south and eventually southwest, producing a slight uptick in moisture as overnight lows and dew points reside in the mid-30s. This set-up will be conducive for advection fog given the current snowpack, raising concerns for areas of dense fog overnight. Dense fog has been observed upstream across MO/IL/IN and increases confidence that this areas of fog will edge north with the front.

Any fog development will hold on through the late morning/early afternoon but will lead into another dreary day marked by continuous overcast skies and on-off drizzle to eventual wintry mix during daylight hours. Return flow from the departing low will cool the column throughout the late afternoon and evening, transitioning any liquid precipitation over to snow. Overall, given the broad scale and weak forcing with the system, only expected snowfall total accumulations to peak around a half-inch of slushy accumulation by Sunday morning. Some models also suggest the stripping of moisture in the DGZ early Sunday morning, so will need to keep an eye out for a transition back to drizzle or freezing drizzle.

Westerly flow on Sunday to ensure another overcast day with renewed rain/snow chances given wrap around moisture from the departing low/support from PV anomaly, in addition to westerly flow tapping moisture from Lake Huron. It is not until the passage of a cold front, forecasted to push through on Monday, that brings the next potential to see a break from precipitation. Despite the passage of the prospective front, decent confidence from ensemble members regarding little fluctuation with temperatures leading into the mid- week period as highs hold in the mid-30s and gradually warming back up into the upper-30s later in the week. Thus, high confidence for above normal temperatures in the extended period.

MARINE .

Easterly winds will slowly start veering to northwesterly late this evening through Saturday night as the low center crosses the lower peninsula. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow lasting through the day Sunday. The low is not particularly strong with a weaker pressure gradient reducing the overall wind potential. Some mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface could lead to some gusts around 30kts tonight over northern/central Lake Huron, but this will only be for a couple hours. There is a small craft advisory along the Thumb Friday night as southeast flow creates higher wave action in the nearshore zone.

HYDROLOGY .

Slow moving low pressure system will continue pushing into lower Michigan late tonight and overnight, however, heaviest of the rainfall will be observed through the afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall will taper off late tonight and will transition over to more of a mist/drizzle leading into Saturday. Storm total accumulation from this afternoon's rainfall through tomorrow afternoon will range between one-quarter inch to one-half inch. Ponding of water in flood prone areas will be possible with additional rainfall, but given the longer event duration and lighter to moderate rainfall intensity, no major flooding concerns expected.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . KK HYDROLOGY . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi38 min E 15 G 18 35°F 1010.2 hPa (-1.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi38 min E 8.9 G 8.9 36°F
AGCM4 39 mi56 min 37°F 34°F1010.9 hPa
TWCO1 47 mi28 min S 7 G 8
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi56 min W 1 G 2.9 35°F 1009.5 hPa34°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi45 minESE 94.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F36°F96%1010.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi42 minE 73.00 miLight Rain36°F36°F100%1010.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi45 minE 50.50 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist37°F37°F100%1010.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi43 minESE 53.00 miFog/Mist38°F37°F97%1009.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi45 minE 62.50 miFog/Mist38°F36°F93%1009.8 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi45 minE 92.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F34°F93%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE4E4E4E5E3NE5NE6E5E11E9E8E8E8E11E10E10E12E12E11E9E11E12E9
1 day agoCalmS5S6S4S4S4S5S4S5SE3S3S3SE4SE3S3S5SE4S6E5SE4E4SE4SE5SE4
2 days agoSW8SW6SW7SW7SW6SW9SW10SW10SW8SW7SW8SW9SW10SW11
G18
SW13SW14SW12S13S11S8SW8S7S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.