Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 090830 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 430 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

DISCUSSION.

Better organization of low- to mid-level southwest flow sets up today as the mid-level ridge axis has advanced east of the area. While this wind is weak (below 15 kt), it will sustain temperature and moisture advection into SE Michigan today with 850mb temps hovering around 19 to 20C and sfc dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another hot and muggy day is in store with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees this afternoon. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include all counties in SE Michigan except for the Thumb. Thinking that the lake breeze and an earlier start to convection in the Thumb will keep the heat index in check there. This will be the eighth consecutive 90+ degree day for Metro Detroit and the ninth for Flint.

Scattered showers and storms are again looking to initiate today as surface convergence enhanced by the lake breezes will capitalize on good instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a weakly capped environment. An uptick in convective coverage may be noted today compared to yesterday as subtle height falls arrive by the afternoon while the resident ridge continues to depart to the east. Wind shear will be weak /on the order of 10 to 15 kt/ and disorganized slow- moving pop-up showers and storms will again be the convective mode today. The pulse-type convection will quickly become outflow dominant and is not likely to become severe, but as seen the past couple days, a few localized strong microburst wind gusts are certainly possible in the more robust updrafts as they become precip loaded. Heavy downpours can be expected in any activity. Any storms will provide brief relief from the heat but will only enhance the humidity for this evening. Another warm and muggy night tonight with lows staying in the 70s.

A pattern shift commences over the Great Lakes as a longwave trough moves in from the Midwest tonight into Friday. Model guidance continues to hone in on a shortwave developing from last night's convection over SD/NE which then tracks east into the local area by late Friday. With largely the same air mass still in place early Friday, looking at another warm and muggy day but with considerably more cloud cover and convection moving in ahead of the wave during the late morning and afternoon. The best forcing for widespread showers and storms arrives during the evening. Wind shear on the order of 20 to 25 kt will be slightly more supportive of storm organization compared to recent days, but at this time the severe weather threat still looks low. Instability remains a question mark at this point with uncertainty in how early day activity evolves.

The longwave trough then receives reinforcement over the Great Lakes this weekend from several Pacific shortwaves that track over the periphery of the Four Corners ridge. This keeps a cooler northwest flow pattern overhead with temperatures returning closer to normal and humidity lowering for the weekend and early next week. Will keep chance PoPs in place for this period as showers and storms will be possible while the troughing resides overhead and the shortwave impulses track through. The best chance currently looks to arrive Sunday. Mid-range model guidance depicts an Ohio/Tennessee Valley ridge developing by mid week which directs in a plume of hot air from the central Mississippi Valley. This likely brings the return of hot and humid conditions for the midweek period.

MARINE.

A weak pressure gradient across the region will persist through Thursday night while providing light and variable winds across the region. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will exist on Thursday but remain primarily over land areas where instability will be a little greater. A weak area of low pressure will then move across Lower Michigan on Friday. This system will bring a much better chance for thunderstorms to the marine areas. This system will also result in light south-southeast winds across the marine areas Friday with winds backing toward the northwest by Saturday as the low pressure system moves east of the region.

HYDROLOGY.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur across portions of southeast Michigan this afternoon and evening. Given precipitable water values around 1.50 inches, heavy downpours will be possible in thunderstorms which will be slow-moving and may lead to over an inch of rainfall for localized areas. Should this occur over urban or poor drainage areas, minor flooding may become a concern.

Showers and storms then become more likely on Friday with the best chance for widespread activity Friday afternoon and evening. A basin- averaged 0.50 to 1.00 inches is forecast across southeast Michigan, with any thunderstorms likely leading to locally higher totals. With antecedent dry conditions, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. However, urban, low-lying, and otherwise flood-prone areas that see numerous rounds of storms may experience minor flooding.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1201 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

AVIATION .

Benign weather conditions through the morning period, sufficient low level stability ensuring simply some patches of thicker high based cloud at times. A light southerly or variable wind during this time. Steady destabilization of the resident hot and humid environment will again present a window from mid afternoon into the evening hours for possible thunderstorm development Thursday. An outflow dominant expansion in coverage means any terminal will remain susceptible to activity during this time. A defined mention may become necessary as confidence of occurrence improves. Otherwise, standard high based diurnal cu at sct/bkn coverage in modest southerly winds.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Heat Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ047-048-053-060>062- 068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . DRK HYDROLOGY . TF AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	18 mi	43 min	W 1 G 1.9	75°F			1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair	28 mi	43 min	S 3.9 G 5.8		77°F		1011.4 hPa (+0.1)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	38 mi	103 min	SSW 4.1 G 5.1	79°F
AGCM4	39 mi	55 min		71°F	73°F		1013.2 hPa
TWCO1	47 mi	33 min	SSW 7 G 8		79°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	50 mi	55 min	SSW 1.9 G 2.9	73°F			1013.3 hPa	68°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	10 mi	1.8 hrs	WSW 3	9.00 mi	Fair	73°F	70°F	90%	1012.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	11 mi	68 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	74°F	70°F	86%	1013.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	12 mi	50 min	N 0	8.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	72°F	68°F	87%	1013 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	19 mi	67 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	73°F	70°F	91%	1012.9 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	20 mi	50 min	N 0	7.00 mi	Fair	73°F	68°F	84%	1013 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI	23 mi	50 min	N 0	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	72°F	68°F	87%	1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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