Saturday, January16, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:28PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:22 AM EST (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:27AMMoonset 9:19PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;883356 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160807 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 307 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

DISCUSSION.

Surface low pressure wobbling around near the Straits will continue to weaken this morning as its supporting upper low moves into the eastern Great Lakes and energy is transferred into the development of a new surface low along the eastern seaboard/Northeast. Some slick spots will be possible this morning on untreated area roads with overnight lows down into the mid 20s allowing wet roadways to freeze up. Some scattered light snow showers or flurries remain possible this evening into tonight on the back edge of the departing upper low as a weak deformation axis/stretched vorticity lobe pivots back across MI. Minimal, if any, accumulation is expected with these snow showers.

Another upper wave dives south into the mid-Mississippi valley Sunday leading to the development of a mid level shortwave over IL/IN. This wave looks to track across northern IN/OH late Sunday into Sunday night bringing an area of light snow to lower MI. While highs Sunday push into the mid 30s, the column aloft will remain below freezing with 850mb temps around -8C leading to a nearly all snow (some melting snow/mix is possible with any early onset precip that falls Sunday afternoon when boundary layer temps will be at their warmest). Some discrepancies still exist between models in the location of the strongest fgen and subsequent banding. The NAM/GFS have continue to favor a southern solution with the band south of M- 59 (GFS) and south of I-96 (NAM). By contrast the ECMWF and Canadian develop the band further north along I-69 (Euro) and between I-69 & M-59 (Canadian). However they have trended slightly further south compared to prior runs. Have kept chance pops running from the I-69 corridor down to the Ohio border as a result. Snow amounts are continue to look light with this weak shortwave with totals generally around a half inch to an inch across the region. Where the main fgen sets up, the resultant band could be capable of producing between 1 to 2 inches of snow (these totals have been pretty consistent across models regardless of band location).

This upper trough quickly moves east into the mid-Atlantic daytime Monday allowing a zonal jet to set up over the Ohio Valley for the midweek period. Some weak shortwaves embedded in this flow will track across the Great Lakes region bringing brief shots of light snow but nothing significant. With the jet to our south, slightly colder air will spill south out of Canada into the central Great Lakes keeping daytime highs closer to average in the low 30's.

MARINE.

A vertically-stacked low pressure system centered over Illinois will continue to slowly wobble eastward towards the northern Ohio Valley today. As the low slowly wobbles eastward into the northern Ohio Valley, winds will flip southwesterly and be light to moderate in strength, except northerly across the northern Lake Huron basin. A secondary weak area of low pressure will then track southeast across the Great Lakes Saturday night bringing another chance for rain/snow showers. Winds will briefly turn northwest across the Lake Huron basin associated with this feature Saturday night into Sunday, with gusts popping up to 25 knots at times. Drier weather with winds returning to a moderate southwesterly flow will then prevail for early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1149 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021

AVIATION .

An extensive area of clearing developed over Se Mi this evening within the mid level dry slot of the occluded low now approaching from the southwest. While there will be a high variability in cloud bases and coverage through the night, there is enough low level moisture to support a mention of some fog and/or low stratus late tonight through early Sat morning. This will all be dependent upon the duration of any clearing. Low level moisture will then wrap back around the upper low as it departs to the east on Saturday, bringing more widespread MVFR based stratus into the terminals mid to late Saturday afternoon.

For DTW . In light of the fog and low stratus in the vicinity, a mention of some IFR conditions will be added to the terminal toward daybreak.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . KDK MARINE . IRL AVIATION . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi83 min SSW 2.9 G 6 30°F 1003.7 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 39 mi53 min 32°F 38°F1002.8 hPa
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi53 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 30°F 1002 hPa27°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi30 minSW 46.00 miFog/Mist31°F28°F89%1003.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi28 minSW 35.00 miFog/Mist29°F29°F99%1003 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi30 minSW 82.00 miFog/Mist30°F27°F88%1003.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi28 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist29°F28°F97%1002.7 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi30 minSW 62.50 miOvercast with Haze33°F28°F82%1003 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi30 minWSW 67.00 miOvercast28°F26°F92%1002.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7E7E6E6E6SE5SE9SE6S8SW5W8SW6SW9SW5S3S6S4S5SW4SW6SW5SW5SW4
1 day agoSW4CalmS3SE3S5S4S6S83S9S7SE7SE8SE8SE5E8SE8SE6E8E9E9SE8E9SE9
2 days agoSW6SW7SW8SW10SW10SW11SW8SW11SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.