Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 160807 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 307 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

DISCUSSION.

Surface low pressure wobbling around near the Straits will continue to weaken this morning as its supporting upper low moves into the eastern Great Lakes and energy is transferred into the development of a new surface low along the eastern seaboard/Northeast. Some slick spots will be possible this morning on untreated area roads with overnight lows down into the mid 20s allowing wet roadways to freeze up. Some scattered light snow showers or flurries remain possible this evening into tonight on the back edge of the departing upper low as a weak deformation axis/stretched vorticity lobe pivots back across MI. Minimal, if any, accumulation is expected with these snow showers.

Another upper wave dives south into the mid-Mississippi valley Sunday leading to the development of a mid level shortwave over IL/IN. This wave looks to track across northern IN/OH late Sunday into Sunday night bringing an area of light snow to lower MI. While highs Sunday push into the mid 30s, the column aloft will remain below freezing with 850mb temps around -8C leading to a nearly all snow (some melting snow/mix is possible with any early onset precip that falls Sunday afternoon when boundary layer temps will be at their warmest). Some discrepancies still exist between models in the location of the strongest fgen and subsequent banding. The NAM/GFS have continue to favor a southern solution with the band south of M- 59 (GFS) and south of I-96 (NAM). By contrast the ECMWF and Canadian develop the band further north along I-69 (Euro) and between I-69 & M-59 (Canadian). However they have trended slightly further south compared to prior runs. Have kept chance pops running from the I-69 corridor down to the Ohio border as a result. Snow amounts are continue to look light with this weak shortwave with totals generally around a half inch to an inch across the region. Where the main fgen sets up, the resultant band could be capable of producing between 1 to 2 inches of snow (these totals have been pretty consistent across models regardless of band location).

This upper trough quickly moves east into the mid-Atlantic daytime Monday allowing a zonal jet to set up over the Ohio Valley for the midweek period. Some weak shortwaves embedded in this flow will track across the Great Lakes region bringing brief shots of light snow but nothing significant. With the jet to our south, slightly colder air will spill south out of Canada into the central Great Lakes keeping daytime highs closer to average in the low 30's.

MARINE.

A vertically-stacked low pressure system centered over Illinois will continue to slowly wobble eastward towards the northern Ohio Valley today. As the low slowly wobbles eastward into the northern Ohio Valley, winds will flip southwesterly and be light to moderate in strength, except northerly across the northern Lake Huron basin. A secondary weak area of low pressure will then track southeast across the Great Lakes Saturday night bringing another chance for rain/snow showers. Winds will briefly turn northwest across the Lake Huron basin associated with this feature Saturday night into Sunday, with gusts popping up to 25 knots at times. Drier weather with winds returning to a moderate southwesterly flow will then prevail for early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1149 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021

AVIATION .

An extensive area of clearing developed over Se Mi this evening within the mid level dry slot of the occluded low now approaching from the southwest. While there will be a high variability in cloud bases and coverage through the night, there is enough low level moisture to support a mention of some fog and/or low stratus late tonight through early Sat morning. This will all be dependent upon the duration of any clearing. Low level moisture will then wrap back around the upper low as it departs to the east on Saturday, bringing more widespread MVFR based stratus into the terminals mid to late Saturday afternoon.

For DTW . In light of the fog and low stratus in the vicinity, a mention of some IFR conditions will be added to the terminal toward daybreak.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . KDK MARINE . IRL AVIATION . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	18 mi	83 min	SSW 2.9 G 6	30°F			1003.7 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4	39 mi	53 min		32°F	38°F		1002.8 hPa
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	50 mi	53 min	SW 1.9 G 5.1	30°F			1002 hPa	27°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	10 mi	30 min	SW 4	6.00 mi	Fog/Mist	31°F	28°F	89%	1003.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	11 mi	28 min	SW 3	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	29°F	29°F	99%	1003 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	12 mi	30 min	SW 8	2.00 mi	Fog/Mist	30°F	27°F	88%	1003.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	19 mi	28 min	N 0	3.00 mi	Fog/Mist	29°F	28°F	97%	1002.7 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	20 mi	30 min	SW 6	2.50 mi	Overcast with Haze	33°F	28°F	82%	1003 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI	23 mi	30 min	WSW 6	7.00 mi	Overcast	28°F	26°F	92%	1002.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station

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