Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday July 12, 2020 4:02 PM EDT (20:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 12:48PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 329 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 329 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak front lingers offshore through Monday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday, then offshore on Thursday. The next frontal boundary approaches the region on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 121921 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 321 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. Plenty of sunshine will yield a hot afternoon with many locations reaching into the lower 90s. Dry weather persists tonight, but a cold front dropping south will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday afternoon. Upper low pressure brings more unsettled weather Tuesday, but high pressure then brings fair weather for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 145 PM Update:

No major changes needed with the going forecast in good shape. Scattered shallow cumulus have developed in the continued very warm and humid conditions. Most areas are seeing at least modest SW breezes, though considerably stronger near the South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands with gusts 25-30 mph. Still a few more hours of heating to go with current heat indices in the mid 80s to low 90s. Heat Advisory for eastern MA and parts of RI still looks valid, though peak heat indices in the 95-96 range.

Previous Discussion .

* Heat Advisory today for much of Eastern MA & parts of RI today

A shortwave rotating across northern New England was bringing rain to much of northern NY this morning. This area of rain will lift northeast and miss our region this morning, but a low risk for a spot shower/sprinkle exists across far northwest MA this morning.

As this shortwave lifts well to our north today winds will veer out in the low levels. This has already allowed low clouds to scour out across much of the region. The fog across the south coast/Cape and Islands should lift over the next few hours. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies and southwest flow will result in a hot day. High temperatures should reach into the lower 90s across many locations with readings a few degrees lower in the high terrain & near the south coast, Cape and Islands.

As the winds veer to the southwest, the dewpoints will drop into the 60s which will reduce the humidity a bit. Nonetheless, high temperatures reaching the lower 90s will still result in heat index values around 95 degrees across portion of eastern MA/RI. Since this will be the second day of 95+ heat index, we have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for this region today. Southwest wind gusts around 25 mph will provide a bit of relief at times, but still a hot day in store for the region.

Dry weather should prevail today given very dry mid level air and the lack of synoptic scale forcing. Low risk of a spot shower/t- storm in far northwest MA, but nothing more than that expected.

High Surf .

A high surf advisory is in effect for ocean exposed beaches on the south coast, Cape and Islands today. Long period left over southerly swell will result in high surf and dangerous rip currents again today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. * Scattered thunderstorms develop Monday afternoon and a few may be strong to severe with a very localized flash flood threat

Tonight .

Shortwave ridging should keep our weather dry/tranquil tonight. A bit less muggy than the past few nights and expect overnight lows to bottom out mainly in the middle to upper 60s.

Monday .

The main concern will be the convective threat Monday afternoon. A shortwave trough approaches from the southwest and will combined with enough diurnal heating for about 1000 to 1500 J/KG of Cape. A weak boundary will also slide south and provide a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorm developing Monday afternoon.

Assessing the severe weather potential indicates mixed signals as we often see in southern New England. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak which will be a limiting factor, but 0-6 KM shear values of 35 to 40 knots are pretty good for mid July standards. The HREF/NAM also indicates some 2-5 KM Updraft Helicity Swaths. So while not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the main threat being localized damaging wind gusts. In addition, there is also a signal in the models for the potential of thunderstorms to train with southwest flow aloft overriding the boundary with Pwats near 2 inches. This will bring the potential for very localized flash flooding if thunderstorms train over a particular location, especially a typically vulnerable spot.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Big Picture .

Closed upper low moves over New England Tuesday, with -12C to -14C cold core at 500-mb. The upper low moves off to the east Tuesday night, followed by a shortwave upper ridge over New England Wednesday and or Thursday. Zonal flow over the Nrn Tier of the USA Thursday through the weekend.

Mid-July normals for 500-mb contours are around 580 Dm. Forecast values are in the mid 570s during the upper low passage Tuesday, then quickly climb to 588-590 Dm Thursday through the weekend. Shallow surface east winds may undercut the deep warmth midweek, but as winds become southwest late week and weekend that should bring back above-normal temperatures.

Model mass fields are similar through Thursday. The previous differences regarding the closed upper low on Tuesday have resolved in favor of the more progressive GFS and GGEM solutions. On Friday and the weekend differences arise due to the usual effects of shortwaves moving through a zonal flow. Confidence is moderate-high through Thursday, then low-moderate over the weekend.

Daily details .

Tuesday-Wednesday .

Closed upper low and its cold pool will move overhead. Model CAPE reaches 1000-1500 J/Kg and LI -5 to -7, centered over E/C Mass and RI. The cold pool and diurnal heating will generate sufficient instability to create some diurnal showers/thunderstorms Tuesday.

Some lingering uncertainty Wednesday. The upper low moves off, but its western edge lingers near the coast and could cause isolated showers along the eastern MA coast. These should quickly move offshore by afternoon.

Temps aloft support Tuesday inland max temps in the low to mid 80s, cooler along the shore. Wednesday max temps are 2C lower, so inland max temps around 80 . and an easterly wind will keep eastern MA and RI in the 70s.

Thursday through Sunday .

High pressure centered along the coast will favor another dry day on Thursday. A shortwave approaches Thursday night and Friday, although zonal flow carries an inherent uncertainty about timing the shortwave. Other shortwaves arrive either Saturday or Sunday, so both of these days will show low-end chance pops for showers/thunder. Mixing supports inland temps around 80 Thursday/Friday and coastals in the 70s, trending to 90 or the low 90s by Sunday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Rest of Today: High confidence.

VFR. SW/WSW winds 8-12 kt gusts 20-25 kt, strongest near South Coast/Cape and Islands.

Tonight: High confidence.

Generally VFR for most of the night (chance for IFR mist/fog at ACK). After 09z Monday, showers/storms currently over western PA move in a weakened state into BAF/BDL and perhaps moving into the ORH/PVD corridor closer to 12z. Indicated 6SM -SHRA to highlight this. Possible brief MVFR visby, rumble of thunder not out of the question but more the exception vs the rule. SW winds to become SSW 5-10 kt.

Monday: Moderate confidence.

While VFR most of the time, it does look like Monday will be fairly active, especially after 18z. Early-day VFR/brief MVFR visby showers move ENE thru 16z. Thereafter, re-developing scattered to potential numerous showers/storms along a slowing frontal zone. Any storm may become strong with strong wind gusts and torrential rain that could substantially lower ceilings/visbys for a brief time. Less certain on timing and locations but feel most of the TAFs except Cape and Islands could see TSRA in the 18-00z timeframe, moving slowly E. S to SW winds 4-8 kt, become W late in the day western airports.

Monday Night: Moderate confidence.

Ongoing afternoon TSRA to diminish as they near the coastal waters. Generally VFR as surface low moves offshore, though possible MVFR-LIFR stratus/fog South Coast/Cape. May also have to watch for fog in the interior but less confidence here. W winds become NW/N after midnight around 4-8 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible in patchy BR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, patchy BR.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE. Today . High confidence. Strong surface heating will yield SW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots later this morning and afternoon with a few gusts near 30 knots possible across our nearshore south coastal waters. Strongest of the wind gusts will be nearshore and also expect 3 to 6 foot seas over the open waters. SCA headlines posted for all our waters.

Tonight and Monday . High confidence. SCA wind gusts diminish tonight, but will need to continue marine headlines for our southern waters. This a result of southerly swell continuing to result in 3 to 6 foot seas.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020- 022>024. Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ005>007- 013>019. RI . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008. Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Frank NEAR TERM . Frank/Loconto SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi92 min S 1.9 87°F 1004 hPa68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi44 min SW 12 G 16 79°F 78°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi44 min SW 12 G 17 83°F 68°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi69 minWNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F64°F48%1004.1 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi66 minW 12 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F64°F48%1004.4 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi68 minW 14 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F64°F53%1002.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAF

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S14
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S8S8S9S9S7S7S11S9S7S8S6S9S9S6W10
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W11W8SW11NW9W10
1 day agoSE6SE10
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2 days agoS6S12S8S11S5S6S3S3S5CalmCalmS3S5CalmCalmCalmE4NE3NE34N5CalmCalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.