Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:56PM Saturday January 25, 2020 4:00 PM EST (21:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:54AMMoonset 6:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 344 Pm Est Sat Jan 25 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm est this evening...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt early, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain early this evening, then chance of rain late this evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 344 Pm Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure shifts northeast out the region tonight and strengthens as it lifts northeast into the canadian maritimes on Sunday. High pressure then gradually builds in from the west through next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 251805 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 105 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure approaching from the Mid Atlantic states will bring a period of heavy rain and strong coastal winds late today and this evening as it tracks across interior southern New England. The precipitation may begin as a bit of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain over the Berkshires late this morning or early afternoon. Mainly dry and mild conditions return Sunday then dry and seasonable for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/. 1230 PM Update:

Forecast again holding up fairly well. Though it's somewhat lower-prob, at least for some awareness did opt to add gusty winds in isolated thunder to the forecast early tonight for Plymouth/Bristol County into SE MA and parts of coastal RI as frontal band/triple point lifts NNE. 12z guidance still points to a strong low-level jet that lifts east through 23-03z. May be difficult to get non-convective gusts any higher than 40 mph, but the potential for heavier showers/thunder to tap into the strong ESE low-level jet (55-65 kt per 12z NAM/GFS) and drag localized stronger winds to the surface. Thunder threat does look pretty isolated to at best widely scattered.

Otherwise, thru late afternoon, look for a gradual increase in east surface winds/gusts areawide to around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. While most of central/eastern MA into RI is dry, light rains to move into the CT Valley into the Hartford/Springfield metro areas. These will tend to become more steady moving into the late-afternoon.

Previous discussion/update from 10 AM .

Forecast looks to be holding up pretty well with no major changes needed. Other than a few elevated sites in the Berkshires, most areas in NW MA, northern Worcester County and the CT Valley have warmed over the freezing mark with the inversion having mixed out. Even in the Berkshires, appears there's just enough time for further warming to really mitigate any threat of freezing drizzle/freezing rain in most areas. Otherwise, temps will be slow to warm into the low to mid 40s under overcast.

Looking ahead, frontal rains (perhaps embedded with a rumble or two of thunder towards SE MA and the coastal waters, where about 150-300 J/kg of elevated CAPE is progged) still look on track. Timing still looks to be ~20-21z towards Hartford County and then lifting NNE through 03z - essentially a late-afternoon to mid-evening period of greater impact, with a period of heavy rains likely to accompany these frontal rains. While it is moving quite rapidly, rain totals of up to an inch in a 3-hr timeframe could lead to some localized urban/poor drainage flooding. Easterly low- level jet increases markedly towards SE MA, southern RI and the E/SE coast of MA - NAM/GFS consensus winds at 950 mb is around 50-55 kt. Though we'll continue to monitor the winds, bulk of this jet still is locked up in the inversion, and it may take some possible thunder to tap into these stronger winds. May opt to add possible gusty winds in thunder with forthcoming update, but not imminent as yet.

Previous Discussion .

Widespread stratus across SNE as moist easterly flow in place. Main concern for the morning and early afternoon period is the potential for some light freezing drizzle/rain across the Berkshires. Some of the guidance is suggesting very light QPF this morning in weak and shallow warm advection which would likely be drizzle given dry air in the mid levels. Temps in the Berkshires will be near freezing this morning, so there is a some risk for light freezing drizzle if any precip occurs.

Expect temps to be mostly above freezing as light rain develops this afternoon in western New Eng. However, the coldest hi-res guidance is indicating temps hovering near freezing in the Berkshires so will have to monitor this closely. Confidence not high enough for any winter weather advisories as temps expected to be be above freezing.

Heavier rainfall will remain to the west through early afternoon.

SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Mid afternoon through tonight .

Potent mid level shortwave lifts NE through SNE this evening. Ahead of the shortwave a 50-60 kt low level jet develops and moves across the region which will advect PWATs up to inch into SNE. The low level jet combined with strong low level convergence along a triple point low will bring a period of heavy rainfall to SNE late afternoon and evening. This will be a quick hitting storm with most of the rainfall in a 3-6 hour period between 21-06z from west to east. Total rainfall of 0.75" to 1.50" expected but 0.50 to 1 inch of rain may fall in a 3 hour period resulting in localized urban and poor drainage flooding. The heaviest rainfall will be favored in the Worcester hills and east slopes of the Berkshires with E/SE flow enhancing upslope in these areas. In addition, soundings show some elevated instability above the frontal inversion with up to 200 J/Kg of MUCAPE. So an isolated t-storm is possible, mainly across RI and SE MA this evening as the low level jet moves through. The rain ends this evening in the west and around midnight in the eastern MA.

Regarding strong wind potential with the low level jet, a strong low level inversion will preclude the strongest gusts from reaching the surface. Taking about 50-60 percent of the low level jet suggests wind gusts 30-40 mph are possible, focused across SE MA and Cape Cod as temps briefly rise to near 50 degrees. Winds quickly diminish before midnight after the occlusion moves through.

A 1 to 2 ft surge is expected along the south coast around the high tide this evening as the low level jet is moving through. Astronomical tides are rather low and no coastal flooding is expected.

Sunday . Surface low will be moving northward through Maine with drier westerly flow across SNE. This will lead to partly to mostly sunny skies developing. However, mid level low will be located across the Gt Lakes with a strong shortwave rotating through western New Eng. Expect more cloud cover in the west along with a few rain/snow showers possible over the higher elevations. Post-frontal airmass remains mild and highs should reach mid/upper 40s, except upper 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights .

* Temperatures slowly trending downward through the week.

* Dry and quiet weather. The only exception is across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires late Sunday into Monday where light scattered rain and snow showers are possible.

Details .

Sunday night through Monday .

Partly cloudy skies continue overnight and Monday as moisture is wrapped around the upper low. This low lifts from northern New England Sunday night to the Canadian maritimes by late Monday while a weak shortwave pivots around the trough through southern New England. The combination of this shortwave, cold air advection on NW winds, and solar insolation may allow for some scattered light showers continuing into Monday; best chance lies over the Berkshires in this case. It will be a bit breezy on Monday as well as CAA promotes good mixing . model soundings indicate potential to mix up to 850 mb which may bring 15 to 20 mph wind gusts out of the west. Temperatures at 850 mb should be around -5C leading to highs in the mid 40s . pretty balmy for late January!

Tuesday through Friday .

Another remarkably quiet week looks on tap ahead of us with potential for most locations to see zero precip through Friday. Partly cloudy skies on Tuesday owing to lingering moisture and a weak rotating shortwave will give way to mostly sunny skies Wednesday through Friday as a high pressure ridge begins to build in from the west. Temperatures will trend downward through Thursday as N/NW flow on the downstream side of the ridge brings in colder air, but even so it only brings us to right around normal by Thursday, in the upper 30s. By Friday the ridge axis approaches and we'll see a wind shift begin to bring in milder air ahead of what could potentially be our next weather makes over the weekend. Much too soon to focus on that possibility, though.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

Short Term /through Sunday/ .

Rest of Today into Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Deterioration to widespread IFR expected as frontal rains overspread the TAFs 21-03z. May be periods LIFR at times. Visbys mainly MVFR-IFR with possible rumble of thunder towards SE MA and the Cape (S/E of BOS/PVD). Low clouds/possible fog after 04z in the interior and potentially to the coastal plain with IFR- MVFR conditions thru 10z. Improvement towards MVFR-VFR expected after 10z.

NE winds increasing around 10-15 kt this afternoon, with gusts to 25-30 kt eastern TAFs by tonight. Pockets of low-level wind shear possible given strong low-level ESE winds of 50-55 kt above inversion. ESE to W wind shift ~01-03z from SW to NE, with speeds then lightening to 6-10 kt, with gusts to 20-25 kt on the Cape/Islands.

Sunday: High confidence.

Leftover sub-VFR conditions improve to VFR by mid-morning. May see spotty MVFR cigs late for the Berkshires/terrain, possibly at BAF. W winds 8-12 kts, with gusts 20-25 kt as clouds start to scatter.

Sunday Night: High confidence.

Generally VFR, though MVFR ceilings/iso -SHSN possible mainly for the Berkshires. W winds 7-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall ~00-02z this evening with good confidence IFR, lower- confidence LIFR. E gusts peaking around 30 kt this evening. Wind shift to W after 03z.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall late afternoon/early evening with mainly IFR, lower-confidence LIFR. W/WNW wind shift around 02z.

Outlook /Sunday night through Monday/ .

Sunday Night through Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday/ . High confidence.

Increasing easterly winds today with gusts 25-30 kt developing, peaking this evening with max gusts 35-40 kt over eastern MA waters where gale warnings have been issued. SCA elsewhere. Winds diminish after midnight. Westerly winds Sun with gusts 20-25 kt. Vsbys reduced in heavy rain and fog late today and this evening, and in areas of fog overnight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231-232-251. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ233-234-236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-255- 256. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Sunday for ANZ250-254.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BW NEAR TERM . KJC/Loconto/BW SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . KJC/BW AVIATION . KJC/Loconto/BW MARINE . KJC/Loconto/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi91 min Calm 37°F 1011 hPa36°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi43 min 47°F 38°F1009.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi49 min 47°F 42°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi68 minNE 85.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F37°F93%1014.4 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi65 minENE 73.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist41°F38°F91%1014.7 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi67 minENE 7 G 172.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F33°F86%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAF

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE5N5N4N3N6NE3N4NE3CalmNE5NE4N4NE6N5NE4N8N8N5N65N7N8NE8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmN3CalmN4N3N3CalmN3NE3N3N6NE8N4N4CalmN3
2 days agoS5CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalm----------------CalmCalmCalmS3S3S3CalmS3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.