Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:38PM Sunday August 25, 2019 9:12 PM EDT (01:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 3:59PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 735 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Tonight..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 735 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains north of the region through Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday and passes through the waters Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure returns briefly Friday before another cold front passes through late Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 252328
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
728 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
Scattered to broken low clouds continue into this evening, then
dissipate into Monday as drier, more seasonable conditions
develop through midweek. Possible showers sometime Wednesday
into Thursday ahead of a cold front. Still keeping an eye on the
track of a potential tropical system offshore late this week,
which could produce high surf and dangerous rip currents along
the immediate shoreline.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Latest goes
nighttime microphysics product doing a good job identifying
another round of marine stratus pushing onshore this evening.

These clouds will mainly impact southeast ma, but should also
cross into ri later this evening. Tried to updated the timing
for these clouds overnight.

Still thinking mainly a dry night across southern new england.

Cannot rule out some sprinkles patchy drizzle with the marine
stratus. Should not amount to much accumulation.

Previous discussion...

clouds versus fog. High pressure and drier air squeezes S as
evident in latest rap forecast guidance. Column drying, its
parent inversion lowering towards the surface down to h975 to
950, N to s, moisture is trapped beneath which the boundary
layer remains destabilized by the cool E NE onshore flow.

Multiple factors to this forecast: 1.) depth of the dry-
inversion, and 2.) direction of surface-h95 winds. Determines
whether low clouds or possible dense fog.

The 12z caribou, me an indication of outcomes where a dry-
inversion is lower. Looking upstream at overnight observations,
dry advection took place with surface dewpoints lowering despite
light winds. Only a few spots reported dense fog given a
decoupled boundary layer. For us, not much href support, signals
of dense fog showing up for the worcester, ma region into
northeast ct. Href overall points towards an E steering wind of
low clouds over a good chunk of S new england, especially se,
additional issues along e-slopes of higher terrain. Nbm and
consensus of high-res guidance supports a cloudy solution as
well.

If clouds become more widespread, broken to overcast overnight,
as perhaps dewpoints slip with the building presence of high
pressure and a drying column aloft, then leaning with mild lows,
shouldn't see much in the way of dense fog say isolated
wherever clearing is allowed to proceed, higher confidence
wherever it rained earlier today. Will hint again at low clouds
along e-slopes of high terrain.

Clouds win.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
2 pm update...

Monday...

looking to clear out. A continued long fetch off across the
gulf of me, two things: 1.) sea-surface temperatures have
lowered a bit with the turbidity and upwelling of the waters,
and 2.) dry air advection will be quite strong and deeper within
the column compared to today and sinking. So an expectation
that low clouds will linger across new england during the
morning hours, gradually dissipating S W with drier, subsiding
pushing s. But not ruling out scattered to broken cloud decks
given boundary layer mixing of onshore cool, moist air. Expect
cloudy issues to linger especially s-coastal new england but
lesser drizzle issues. Late summer Sun still strong while mixing
out to h85 undergoing cold air advection, around +8c, another
day of 70s throughout the interior while 60s along the E se
shore.

Monday night...

becoming clear. Daytime heating concludes, dry air and high
pressure in place, looking at the boundary layer to decouple and
light winds to prevail over most of S new england albeit the
southeast. Warm air advection aloft, moisture is trapped beneath
the dry inversion just above the surface. Dense fog not out of
the question especially in areas of onshore flow and or higher
dewpoints (notably earlier in the day with the cross-over
threshold). Lean with cooler guidance and evaluate fog based on
winds (below 3 mph) along with temperature- dewpoint thresholds
of 2 degrees or less. This as a first guess, fog seemingly will
be more prevalent.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* temperatures will remain below normal Tuesday, then will
moderate to near and above normal by late this week
* scattered showers will move across our region sometime late
Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a cold front.

Details...

Tuesday...

high pressure will remain across the region, or at least close
by. Dry weather and below normal temperatures expected to
continue. Onshore winds will keep the immediate coastal areas
even cooler.

Wednesday through Friday...

the biggest question remaining to be answered will be how close
a potential tropical system comes to southern new england during
this time. Latest model guidance has trended ever so slightly
west, but still well within the margin of error for a forecast
this far out. Still expecting a cold front to slowly approach
from the west late Wednesday into Thursday. At this point,
expecting scattered showers with the cold front. Instability is
too poor to warrant a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Rainfall chances would be significantly higher if the ocean low
pressure comes even closer to our region. Time will tell. The
most likely impact from this coastal system would be a period
of rough surf along ocean-exposed beaches.

There may be another front that might approach late this week,
but timing is very much in question.

Near to above normal temperatures should prevail during this
period.

Saturday and Sunday...

high pressure should be in control. Current forecast is for dry
weather. Above normal temperatures Saturday, with below normal
temperatures Sunday as this high pressure moves in.

Aviation 23z Sunday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

sct-bkn low-endVFR will lower into the overnight hours as E ne
winds persist, light around 5 kts over the interior, around 10
to 15 kts along the shore. Higher confidence of into-morning
MVFR for terminals along and S of the ma-pike, as well as along
the e-slopes of high terrain. Patchy ifr fg possible where skc
prevails in the n-ct river valley of ma.

Monday...

morning sct-bkn MVFR mostly along and S of the ma-pike lifting
and becoming few-sct towards afternoon. E NE winds continue
around 10 to 15 kts with strongest winds along the SE coast with
gusts up to 20 kts.

Monday night...

few-sct CIGS may linger perhaps becoming bkn-ovc over southeast
ma, but a greater concern is interior ifr fg. Current confidence
is immediate W of the N W 495 beltway and within sheltered
interior valleys through N ct and W ma. Light winds but a bit
more brisk E NE flow 5-10 kts.

Kbos terminal...

as we go into evening, sct-bkn CIGS prevail, lowering with time
down to 020 where more sct conditions are favored.

Kbdl terminal...

sct-bkn low-endVFR around 040 into this evening. Can't rule out
MVFR going into Monday morning but will leave it sct for now.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Thursday night through Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

E NE winds persist through Tuesday morning. That will contribute
to an E swell and wave heights around 4 to 6 feet. Strong gusts
will taper slightly overnight, and then pick back up Monday
with gusts up to 25 kts. As high pressure builds from the n
into midweek, will see both winds and seas begin to subside.

Small craft advisory headlines continue for a majority of the
waters.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Monday for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz231-
236-251.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Monday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi102 min Calm 68°F 1024 hPa61°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi72 min E 5.1 G 7 67°F 73°F1023.7 hPa (+0.5)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi72 min NE 2.9 G 7 64°F 69°F1024.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi79 minE 610.00 miFair65°F42°F43%1025.3 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi76 minE 510.00 miFair62°F45°F54%1026 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi78 minESE 410.00 miFair61°F50°F67%1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAF

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7----N3N3--N4N4--N5N6--NE8N8--NE11
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1 day agoN3------CalmN3N5N4CalmN4NE34N8N13
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2 days ago------NW5--NW5--NW8NW4CalmN5--3--NE3N12
G16
NW6NW9NW9E3NW8N5N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.