Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:19PM Sunday December 8, 2019 1:09 AM EST (06:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 4:09AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 950 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely with chance of snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 950 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will settle over the area tonight, then pass east on Sunday. A warm front will approach on Monday and lift north Monday night. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and pass east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 080327 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1027 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure will move from the eastern Great Lakes to New England by late tonight. This will result in a frigid night. The high moves offshore Sunday, starting a return flow of milder and moist air for the first half of the week. This will bring off and on rain from late Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. Very strong wind gusts are possible late Monday and Monday night in southeast areas. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, and there might be some snow Tuesday night into Wednesday although confidence is very low at this point. Dry weather returns late Wednesday and returns to colder than normal temperatures for early December Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. 1020 PM Update:

Strong high pressure . 1033 mb . was building into western New England tonight. The last of ocean effect cloudiness was exiting eastern Cape Cod as of 10 PM. Otherwise skies were crystal clear across southern New England. With light wind, temperatures have already plummeted to frigid levels . with 8 degrees at Orange and 3 degrees at Jaffrey, NH. Have lowered miniumum temperatures to near 0 degrees for northwest MA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. 320 PM update .

Sunday .

Deep layer ridge moves across the area during the morning. Thus dry weather prevails along with abundant sunshine. However it will be a very cold start to the day. Not much of a temp recovery as 1030+ mb high over southeast MA limits boundary layer mixing given subsidence inversion. So temps only 3-5 degs higher tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 30s, low 30s high terrain. Winds become SSW during the afternoon, fairly light but will increase late in the day especially from Cape Ann to Cape Cod in eastern MA.

Sunday night .

Enough deep layer ridging nearby to support dry weather thru the evening. However increasing return SW flow aloft will result in the risk for showers late Sunday night and especially toward Monday morning on nose of approaching low level jet. Given this low level WAA pattern temps will actually rise overnight thru the 30s and into the low 40s along the south coast toward Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights .

* Mild temperatures Mon into Tue with heavy rains Monday night/overnight. Mainly within-bank river rises anticipated with rain/snowmelt combo.

* Possible minor accumulations of snowfall Tue nite-Wed that could impact Wed AM commute in interior southern New England to I-95 corridor. Details and accumulations uncertain. * Cold and dry for Wed into Fri, moderating late Fri.

* Unsettled weather into the weekend with warming temperatures. Details .

ECMWF and GFS ensemble means show good consistency in the mid- level pattern through midweek, with a pronounced upper-low over Hudson Bay with a mean trough through the center of the country. Rising 500 mb heights across Southern New England early in the period transition toward height falls by Tuesday into Wednesday. Above to well-above normal temperatures along with substantial reduction in snowpack is probable through Tuesday, given 850 mb temps in the upper single digits C corresponding to climatological 90th-percentile values, and 1-1.25" PWATs being 2-3 standard deviations above normal. That should also bring a period of wet weather ahead of a cold front. While the GFS is dry Wednesday, international guidance offers potential for a period of anafrontal snows in the colder air Wednesday as far NW as interior Southern New England. Considerable spread in solutions exist (especially the NWern extent of the precip shield), with varied handling of a shortwave trough over the SW Texas/Mexico border being a key difference among the guidance.

By Wednesday into late week, the aforementioned mean longwave trough shifts into New England, with a shot of below-normal temperatures for Thursday into Friday associated with a cold, dry Canadian high pressure area. Lower-confidence forecast for the upcoming weekend with uncertainty in surface low track for the weekend; however weather pattern should trend unsettled again by the weekend with moderating temperatures back toward above-normal levels.

Monday through Tuesday:

Overall an unseasonably mild and rather wet period, with two periods of rain: first with the isentropic/warm frontal rains Monday afternoon into evening and another into Tuesday. Of the two, the first rainy period looks to be the most substantial in terms of expected rains.

PoPs increase into the Categorical range early to mid Mon aftn across western/central MA into RI/northern CT (and areawide by Monday late afternoon) amid persistent southwest warm/moist advection, with enhanced 925-850 mb SW jet pumping in elevated moisture/PWATs into Southern New England. Though models vary on QPF magnitude, most of them have increased forecast QPF for Monday into Monday night; appears the wettest QPF is confined to areas south of the Mass Pike and along/SE of I-95 perhaps starting as early as the Monday afternoon commute. With the influx in moisture, did note a 925 mb theta-e ridge which noses into coastal/eastern RI and into the South Coast/South Shore areas Monday evening; in that period, while Showalter indices are on the stable side, K-index values are around 30. Didn't include thunder in the forecast as the prospect appears too remote but nonetheless feel these indicate offer the potential to enhance rainfall with somewhat greater rain rates into the Monday PM commute into Monday evening period. Should see a decrease in PoPs toward solid Chance by the second half of the overnight, essentially a break of sorts, ahead of the cold front for Tuesday with an increase back into the Likely range by afternoon.

So a pretty good slug of moisture/precip through Tuesday, to the tune of 1-1.5" north of the Mass Pike, and 1.5-2" south of the Mass Pike into much of northern CT, RI into SE Mass. Leftover snowpack will be significantly reduced and likely nonexistent by Tuesday with several hours of >40 degree dewpoints. Current snow-water equivalent (SWE) per the Dec 7th NOHRSC snow analysis indicates there is still about 2" of snow- water locked up in the snowpack across NW MA into the eastern Berkshires/Litchfield Hills where snow depth is greatest, with a rapid SE taper to less than an inch towards I-95 and less than that across RI into SE Mass. Some of this SWE will likely be reduced slightly by sublimation over the next couple days. Did look at MMEFS-based river guidance for our hydrologic service area, with some rise to Action stage levels shown Monday into Tuesday on some of our northern rivers such as the North Nashua and Shawsheen basins. Unless the forecast QPF shifts further to the N/W than currently progged, probably not looking a rain w/ snowmelt river flood scenario as the heaviest rains don't look aligned with where snow-water is significant. Certainly might be some urban or poor drainage issues Monday night, though.

Winds will also increase Monday night towards the South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands. ECMWF has 925 mb southwest jet of 50 to 60 kts by Monday night, though rising temperatures through warm advection aloft may limit the mixing potential/depth both on water and over land. Ended up capping wind gusts at 40 mph across the Cape and the Islands - see this as a sub-Advisory scenario, with gusts 20-25 mph more into the interior as the jet decreases in magnitude. Potential for gale-force winds on the waters late Monday into Monday night.

Monday and Tuesday should prove unseasonably mild and will likely feel far from typical early December weather with the elevated dewpoints. Have highs into the 50s (nearing 60 towards SE Mass) each day, with lows Monday night into the upper 40s to lower-mid 50s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:

850 mb front surges through Southern New England Tuesday night, with temperatures falling quickly into the 20s to near freezing. There remains some concern for anafrontal snows (falling on the cold side of the cold front) Tuesday night into Wednesday. This potential is hit the hardest by the ECMWF and the EC Ensemble, but also has support from the Canadian GEM. Even drilling down into the 12z ECMWF ensemble membership, there remains a lot of uncertainty with nearly as many members indicating little to no snow while a few others show some notable accumulations. Ensemble 24-hr probabilities of snow > 3 inches are greatest across Windham thru Hartford Counties N/NW toward western and central MA, but those probabilities are no better than about 30 percent. Light snows are possible towards SE Mass and the Cape but temperatures are more marginal. Also worth noting that the 12z ECMWF now shows less interaction with southern-stream trough over the Rio Grande region in SW TX which shrinks the NWern extent of the precip shield but still brings some light accumulations to the I-95 corridor into SE Mass/RI overnight into Wednesday. Snow potential is something that will need to be monitored. Unless a wave low can develop on the front, though, anafrontal type snow situations aren't usually substantial snow producers in general.

Lows Tuesday night to run into the 20s to near freezing, while highs Wednesday to range only in the upper 20s to mid-upper 30s.

Wednesday Night through Friday Night:

Large/broad 1040 mb high pressure builds NEward into northern New England by Thursday into Thursday night, with related ridging staying in place through Friday night. This will create dry conditions and a couple nights of excellent radiational cooling Wednesday and Thursday nights. 850 mb temps through Thursday night are around -11 to -14C, which supports lows in the single digits to the teens each night, and highs on Thursday only in the 20s to near freezing out on Cape Cod.

Flow becomes SWly by Friday, affording more moderation in temperatures to values around freezing to the the upper 30s. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s. These are still somewhat below normal for mid-December.

The Weekend:

Will likely see temps moderate back toward near/above normal levels by the weekend with another period of pronounced S/SW flow pumping in warmer temperatures and higher moisture levels. Greater uncertainty in handling another coastal runner cyclone, however, that should be the next weather maker after the early- midweek system. It is looking like an unsettled weekend, but details are uncertain.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/ . High confidence.

0320Z Update:

Overnight . VFR clear, except for sct-bkn stratocumulus on Cape Cod until 05Z.

Sunday . VFR. Light SW winds slowly increasing to 10-15 kt later in the day.

Sunday night . VFR to start becoming lowering to MVFR in scattered showers after midnight. LLWS possible late.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely, patchy BR.

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance SHSN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday Night/ . High confidence.

1020 PM Update:

NOTE: We are carefully watching the potential for high end gales or even storm force winds over the waters for late Monday and Monday night. A Watch will likely be issued in the next few hours. Have updated the outlook below to reflect the increased probabilities.

Overnight . NW winds 10-15 kts.

Sunday . 1030+ mb high pressure overhead during the morning drifts offshore in the afternoon shifting winds from light/variable to SSW over southern New England in the afternoon. Dry weather and good vsby continue.

Sunday night . high pressure offshore with SSW winds increasing to near 25 kt especially eastern MA waters. Dry weather and good vsby in the evening but showers likely develop late and especially toward Monday morning lowering vsby.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: High risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers likely.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/GAF NEAR TERM . Nocera/Loconto/GAF SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Nocera/Loconto/GAF MARINE . Nocera/Loconto/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi39 min E 1 17°F 1033 hPa12°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 26°F 41°F1032.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi57 min NNW 1 G 1.9 25°F 48°F1032.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair11°F7°F84%1033 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair5°F0°F83%1032.9 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi75 minSSW 310.00 miFair15°F8°F74%1031.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAF

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW7W3W6SE3SW6SW4S6S6S7S6S6S9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS6W33W5W7NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.