Thursday, September19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:36PM Thursday September 19, 2019 3:14 PM EDT (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 11:23AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0058.000000t0000z-190913t2215z/ 604 Pm Edt Fri Sep 13 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, additional Thunderstorm may pose a threat as they move into the area from the west this evening. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake huron...and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair. Lat...lon 4294 8244 4289 8247 4279 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4250 8270 4259 8284 4266 8285 4272 8269 4269 8260 4266 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4297 8248 4301 8242 time...mot...loc 2202z 228deg 55kt 4286 8231
LCZ422 Expires:201909132213;;745096 FZUS73 KDTX 132204 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 604 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 LCZ422-460-132213-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191704
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
104 pm edt Thu sep 19 2019

Aviation
Maintenance of a dry and stable low level environment held by high
pressure centered to the east ensures skies remain clear across the
lowest 5000 ft through the remainder of the daylight period. Winds
remain modest from the southeast during this time. A plume of
moisture will lift northward this evening, which may bring a brief
period of thicker cloud within the 4-6k ft level overnight. This
moisture then lifts to the east by Friday morning. Some shallow fog
also a possibility, but likely of limited coverage or duration.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for CIGS at or below 5000 ft tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 331 am edt Thu sep 19 2019
discussion...

modest convective activity ongoing within the upstream corridor of
instability draped from the northern great lakes into the eastern
great plains early this morning. This action will struggle to
survive into the daylight hours while any potentially organized
convection remains tied to the instability gradient over the midwest
anyway. Thus, with southeasterly return flow continuing to dominate
locally, expect little change from yesterday aside from the
potential for a partial coverage of high cirrus debris originating
invof the upper ms river valley early morning. Highs once again near
80 degrees.

Low to mid 60s dewpoints over the lower oh valley will
begin creeping into the area tonight into the weekend as the
prevailing pattern remains generally unchanged and light moisture
advection continues. This will place a rising a floor on overnight
lows each night while modest afternoon mugginess typical of late
september accompanies continued daytime highs in the 80s. Only item
of interest in the near term is potential for a weak MCV to trigger
isolated scattered showers or t-storms on Friday as low-level
instability builds. 4-km NAM and nmm are aggressive in their
depictions of this scenario, but analysis of forecast soundings
reveals stout capping centered around 850mb and what appears to be
erroneous triggering of convective qpf. Nonetheless, there is a some
consensus among the various nwp, including the ecmwf, that a
convectively induced shortwave will propagate along the periphery of
the resident mid-level ridge potentially grazing the forecast area
Friday afternoon. A stronger outcome may therefore warrant an upward
revision to pops into the schc category, but maintained a dry
forecast for now. More likely scenario is simply a greater coverage
of lower-based diurnal CU than previous days, especially over
southern and eastern areas.

As the western us longwave trough runs its course and energy
releases into the central CONUS and northwest ontario, subsequent
deamplification of the downstream ridge will allow the instability
gradient to be forced through lower michigan Sunday into Sunday
night warranting inclusion of showers tstorms. High temps thereafter
settle closer to climatological average values.

Marine...

ridge of high pressure anchored over the mid atlantic will maintain
benign marine weather through the end of the week. Southeast winds
will veer to the south today, prevailing from this direction to
finish the week.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi74 min E 7 G 8 69°F 1022 hPa (-0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi74 min 69°F 67°F1 ft1021.4 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 25 mi62 min 74°F 66°F1021.3 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi74 min ENE 6 G 7 68°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi62 min 75°F 1021.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi62 min S 8 G 14 76°F 1020.8 hPa55°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi21 minESE 810.00 miFair74°F59°F60%1020.6 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi78 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F61°F69%1021.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi36 minSE 610.00 miFair79°F57°F48%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8E7E9E11SE6SE6SE5SE6E5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmSE5SE8S6S7S6SE7E8
1 day agoSE8E5E9E7E4E3E3CalmCalmCalmNE3N3N5CalmN4CalmE4E8SE10SE8E8SE8E8E10
2 days agoSE6E5NE4CalmE9NE5NE7NE6NE7NE5NE7NE5NE6NE7N4N6N4NE6NE6NE8NE7E8E10E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.