Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:08PM Monday November 18, 2019 12:56 AM EST (05:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0062.000000t0000z-191027t1045z/ 633 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. However, gusty winds to 30 knots will persist. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4292 8246 4282 8248 4276 8247 4262 8251 4259 8254 4270 8264 4269 8260 4266 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4322 8256 4341 8259 4343 8255 4343 8220 time...mot...loc 1030z 264deg 39kt 4320 8228 4239 8143
LCZ422 Expires:201910271042;;344484 FZUS73 KDTX 271033 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 633 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-271042-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 180450
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1150 pm est Sun nov 17 2019

Aviation
There was only one area of isolated light rain ice pellet mix that
lifted northward this evening. The precipitation was able to trigger
surface observation equipment across metro detroit before
evaporating dissipating. It remains a very difficult pattern to pin
details down and provide timing to sensible weather changes as deep
moisture is lacking and tangible features are very muddled. Initial
surge of equivalent potential temperature is now underway with a
signficant rise in surface dewpoints the past 6 hours. Model data
shows a neutral temperature advection pattern now during much of the
forecast period with virtually no system relative isentropic ascent.

As a result, favor a dry forecast. Kept with prevailing MVFR
conditions on Monday with moisture now over the state.

Dtw... No more precipitation anticipated through tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight. High Monday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 400 pm est Sun nov 17 2019
discussion...

20z surface analysis depicts weakening surface high over the
northeast while some kinematic influence is retained until early
tonight. Surface flow will remain E SE this evening with limited
variability in surface dewpoint temperatures, but denser mid-high
cloud will continue to stream in overhead from the sw. High degree
of uncertainty with tonight's precip forecast given the wide spread
in geographic placement of qpf. Hires solutions have been slightly
more consistent in producing some early precip through the central
portion of the CWA as an upper level trough pivots east and tilts
negatively overnight. Forecast sounding profiles generally suggest
the maintenance of top-down saturation through at least the 750 mb
level suggesting plenty of ice nucleation potential aloft as in-
cloud hydrometeors initialize as snow. Looking at the lower
tropospheric depth, models have trended toward a fairly shallow sub-
freezing near-surface layer as cross sections indicate ample
moisture advection just above in the 800-650 mb layer. While local
probabilistic guidance holds onto a low-end chance for fzdz as well
as blended model guidance, hedged forecast toward light rain
overnight with the afternoon update. Higher cloud cover and
temperature obs out-pacing the forecast should help limit the
spatial coverage of surface pavement temps falling below freezing
prior to the dissipation of any light precip that does occur. Light
winds transition to nearly calm and variable after midnight. Lows
bottom out a degree or two below freezing prior to sunrise which is
more in-line with normal readings.

Primary circulation aloft with attend front will begin exiting lower
michigan Monday morning. Airmass modification will not be overly
impressive as flow becomes more zonal through much of the column
promoting gradual drying, but near surface layer winds will be weak
limiting thermodynamic changes to cold-season diurnal cycle. Given
weak isentropically driven forcing (mainly confined north of i-69),
pulled pops down keeping Monday mainly dry and cloudy for much of
the day. Deep layer moisture quality is largely absent with variable
degree of dry air in sub-850 mb layer. Given a similar thermal
profile from Sunday to Monday, highs will within a few degrees
Monday afternoon near 40 degrees.

Low-end precip chances extend into Tuesday as shortwave energy
ripples through spinning up some mid-level vorticity, especially in
the late afternoon-early overnight timeframe. Nothing more than slgt
chc pops at this time, mainly in liquid form. Flow begins to back
southwesterly on Wednesday which will initiate a period of lighter
waa in conjunction with height rises and impinging ridge axis.

Plenty of dry air aloft will keep conditions dry and capped,
although there will be some trapping of incidental near-surface
moisture before an semi-active subsidence regime works lower
highlighted by a positive omega field. Temps will continue to trend
a few degrees warmer during this time with weak winds. Upper level
moisture will keep high cloud socked in throughout the day and
overnight helping maintain overnight lows above freezing.

Next well organized system arrives on Thursday as a warm front lifts
into the great lakes nudging 850 mb temps close to 10 c. Widespread
and longer duration rainfall is expected with the warm front and the
subsequent cold FROPA as low pressure deepens and races through
northern lower michigan Thursday evening driven aloft by a sharp
trough folding into the southern branch of a split jet. Changeover
to snow is possible late Thursday night as stronger CAA from
northwest promotes freezing temperatures return. Mainly dry
conditions through next weekend with cool temps.

Marine...

diminishing winds and waves this evening followed by favorable
marine conditions to close out the weekend as high pressure advances
into the canadian maritimes. Approaching surface trough tonight into
Monday morning will veer winds towards the ssw. Winds will remain
light and waves low through the first half of the week.

Northwesterly gusts to gales possible Thursday night as deepening
low pressure lifts through michigan.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Kk
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi56 min N 1.9 G 1.9 35°F 1012.2 hPa (-2.0)
AGCM4 25 mi56 min 35°F 42°F1011.2 hPa (-2.1)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi56 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 38°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi62 min 36°F 1011.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi62 min SSE 5.1 G 6 35°F 1011.4 hPa28°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last
24hr
E4
E2
G6
SE4
G8
SE6
SE5
G8
SE7
G11
SE6
G9
S4
G7
S5
G9
S5
S5
S3
S6
SE7
S8
S9
S7
S4
SE4
S5
G8
S4
S6
SW2
S3
1 day
ago
NE20
N19
E16
E16
G20
E11
E12
G15
E11
G14
E10
SE8
G11
SE9
G12
SE8
G15
SE11
SE8
G11
S6
SE4
G10
SE7
NE9
G12
E7
G10
E8
E7
G10
E6
E5
G8
E3
G6
E5
G8
2 days
ago
SW9
G13
W8
G12
SW6
G9
SW8
G11
SW5
G9
SW4
SW3
W6
G9
W10
G13
W7
G10
NW6
G11
NW6
G11
NW5
G9
W5
W6
NW7
G11
NE25
NE24
NE23
G28

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi63 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F28°F73%1012.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi2 hrsN 012.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1013.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F28°F74%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrE5NE3N4NE3N3N5CalmCalmCalmE3Calm34E5SE4SE5SE4E5S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN8N9N4N5N4N4N5NE5NE11NE5E6NE7NE6NE9NE9E9E10E7NE6NE7NE6NE8NE6NE6
2 days agoW8
G18
W11
G19
W11
G18
W9W7W11SW8W10W8
G17
W8SW7W8W6W4NW6N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7N10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.