Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday January 23, 2020 11:15 AM EST (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0067.000000t0000z-191230t1300z/ 754 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 800 am est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The showers have moved out of the area. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4236 8286 4239 8294 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4302 8244 4297 8241 time...mot...loc 1254z 216deg 43kt 4352 8232 4307 8173
LCZ422 Expires:201912301304;;156663 FZUS73 KDTX 301254 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ422-460-301304-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 231045 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 545 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

AVIATION.

A dry air mass below 10kft agl will persist over Southeast Michigan through the evening as deep anticyclonic flow trajectories persist around the west side of ridging over the eastern CONUS. Tonight into Friday, precipitation chances increase as low pressure lumbers into east out of the midwestern states. With this, ceilings will edge down towards MVFR by the end of the forecast and perhaps lower on Friday. While most of the precipitation should fall as rain showers, some snowflakes may mix in late tonight into early Friday.

For DTW . VFR into tonight with ceilings dropping towards 5kft. Virga will arc north overnight as lead isentropic ascent begins in advance of low pressure. Better chance of rain will come on Friday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft after 08z tonight, high after 14z Friday.

* Medium that precipitation will fall as light rain late tonight (some chance of snow mixed in), high for all rain later Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 459 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

DISCUSSION .

Tranquil conditions remain in focus early this morning across SE MI. Initial forecast updates for today involve bumping up first period temps a couple degrees as denser mid-cloud better absorbs and re- emits outgoing IR. In fact, nocturnal cooling reversed-course around midnight when several sites measured hourly temp increases centered on the local midnight hour attributed to these non-diurnal effects. Still expecting a bit of an overall decrease in temps by daybreak as overnight lows settle in the upper 20s to around 30F.

Moisture aloft will begin to advect eastward, but it will take a while to offset the sheer dryness of the column. The 23.00Z DTX RAOB measured a PWAT value of 0.09 inches which is near the daily minimum on the seasonal spectrum. The driest measured layer (by dewpoint depression) was at the 850mb level with a deltaT of 43C. Forecast soundings appropriately keep most of the CWA subsaturated AOB this level until almost 00Z Friday as the columns saturates from the top down. The one exception to this transition would be the Tri-Cities area which could see an isentropically driven coating of snowfall before the edge of the precip shield inches closer from an approaching low.

PVA still looking favorable aloft as a pronounced vort max wraps up over The Ozarks Thursday evening before a vertically stacked low emerges Thursday night. While the primary surface low will be well south and west of the Great Lakes come Friday morning, precip will become more likely across the western counties by 12Z. Major forecast revisions were included with this forecast cycle as snow wording was broadly removed in favor of rain or a rain/snow mix. Not only should 2m temps stay a degree or two above freezing for much of the event, but the warm nose near 925mb appears to better advect mild air in the lowest levels. This represents the previously discussed warmer scenario unfolding as the sub-freezing layer is degraded across much of the CWA from winds veering slightly more south of east. There is still some indication that wet flakes may mix in south of M-59 Friday morning, but with temps in the mid 30s by the afternoon and ample liquid, finding accumulating snow will be next to impossible. From M-46 on north, more uncertainty remains in the partitioning which could lean more toward snow than rain, especially during evening hours. Precip aside, could still could see a few stronger gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range during the day while the LLJ is more energetic below the warm nose, otherwise ESE flow should prevail for much of Friday.

The best shot for snow comes late Friday night into Saturday as the thermal profile becomes slightly modified and cools. Saturation will be favorable as the column should be moist through the lowest 500mb, but given how wet surfaces will be, there is currently little data to suggest any real accumulations early on Saturday. The broad cyclonic low will be very slow to shift east Saturday night as the longwave feature pivots significantly more than it translates. This lends at least chance PoPs for most localities through Sunday morning with assorted p-types.

Better drying arrives later on Sunday as the low finally exits toward the northeast once the mean flow aloft is absorbed into the southern stream jet ahead of a compressed shortwave near the mid- Mississippi Valley. NW flow trails in the wake, leading to a period of gradual drying and cooling. There may still be some scattered back-edge precip in the morning, but rates will be quite light. Low amplitude ridge sneaks into the Great Lakes on Monday leading to higher confidence drying before a clipper system arrives on Tuesday. It should be noted that mid-range models are not in the best agreement with this. However, mild conditions will continue through the end of next week.

MARINE . Southerly flow today will gradually back to the east by Friday afternoon ahead of a developing low pressure system in the Midwest. Surface flow will veer to the southeast Friday night then gradually back to the northwest by Sunday afternoon as the surface low crosses southern Lake Huron Saturday night. This system will spread areas of mainly light rain and snow across the lakes starting tonight and ending during the day Sunday. This system will not be very strong so the wind field will be relatively light to moderate.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi75 min SSE 2.9 G 7 32°F 1024 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 25 mi45 min 33°F 33°F1023.1 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi135 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 32°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi45 min 32°F 1023.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi45 min S 6 G 7 32°F 1022.9 hPa21°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi22 minSSE 310.00 miFair33°F21°F64%1024.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi79 minSE 510.00 miOvercast28°F27°F98%1024 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair33°F23°F68%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6NW5N6NW4NW5CalmCalmW4CalmW3NW3NW4NW5NW8W8NW4W6W8W9W7W7SW8W7
1 day agoNW7NW8NW5NW6NW8NW6NW6NW6NW7NW5NW5NW5NW5NW6NW5NW4NW5N4N6N6NW8N5N6N8
2 days agoSW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.