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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Early this morning..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering west 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers until midday, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the day.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots backing northwest late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing south toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest, then veering north late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 030827 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 327 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Short Term/Long Term/Marine

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Patchy drizzle continues to limit visibilities this morning while a mid-level shortwave approaches from the west. Rain/snow will begin to work it's way through West Michigan after 4am with more widespread precip expected to fall after daybreak. General thinking from the previous forecast continues with 1-3 inches of accumulations expected along and north of a line from Muskegon, Kent, Montcalm, and Isabella Counties. Recent HRRR ensemble probability-matched mean snowfall supports this slightly more southern placement of accumulations. Temperatures will still be marginally freezing for most areas, so snow will be of the wet and slushy variety. Road temperatures are also currently just above freezing south of US-10, although some accumulations are possible during times of higher snow rates. HRRR ensemble guidance highlights the highest precipitation rates between 7am to 11am this morning. Reduced visibilities and slick roads due to accumulating wet snow will be possible during this time.

The bulk of the precipitation exits east this afternoon and evening, then light low-level wrap around moisture with weak lake support will continue some rain/snow/drizzle through early Monday. Above freezing temperatures should help any lingering snow to melt on contact. Moisture wanes as the main system exits further east and mid level ridging moves in. Dry weather returns much of Monday before our next clipper system arrives Monday night.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Guidance trends are for a farther south track of the clipper system Monday night and Tuesday with the sfc low tracking south of MI from ern Iowa to srn OH. Best potential for some light snow or a mix of light rain and snow has shifted to be mainly near and south of I-96 but even there it looks like only a dusting of snow accumulation at best. QPF progs have decreased for srn lwr MI and are only a tenth of an inch or less.

A bit of light mixed precip could linger into Tuesday night and early Wednesday after that system passes by due to continued troughing aloft as well as low level northerly flow/cold advection.
The low PoPs will generally favor the lakeshore counties where H8 temps around -7C will contribute to some lake influence.

Pattern change arrives midweek as longwave trough departs to the east and significant height rises take place. An incoming warm front on Wednesday night could trigger a brief period of light rain and/or snow, then southwest flow in the "warm sector" sends H8 temps to 5C or higher on Thursday and Friday. Guidance temps continue to rise for the end of the week, with highs in the 40s expected Thursday through Saturday. Could even see readings in the 50s on Friday especially south.

Rain chances begin to increase Friday night and Saturday as longwave troughing evolves/amplifies to our west in the Plains and a frontal zone becomes stalled nearby.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1226 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

IFR/LIFR cigs persist this morning with patchy MVFR visbys due to drizzle at the southern TAF sites. Rain and snow will begin to move into West Michigan after 09z this morning leading to LIFR cigs and reduced visibilities due to rain/snow. MKG and GRR still have the best chances for a brief period of snow this morning before transitioning back to all rain. Higher accumulations will be north of the terminals, but some light slushy accums of 1 inch or less is possible at MKG and GRR.

MARINE
Issued at 327 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Winds start easterly today but with the approach of a system from our west winds will shift westerly during the afternoon. We may see a brief few hours this evening with winds and waves touching Small Craft Advisory criteria for the southern marine zones, but given the very short duration not planning any headlines at this time.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.

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