Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Haven, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 6:54PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.gale warning in effect from 11 am edt this morning through Wednesday morning...
Early this morning..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Today..Southeast winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots, then veering south to 30 knots late in the day. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest gales to 40 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Tuesday night..West gales to 35 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201910212000;;036901 FZUS53 KGRR 210805 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-212000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Haven city, MI
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location: 42.4, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 210730
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am edt Mon oct 21 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am edt Mon oct 21 2019
- gales expected on lake michigan as well as another damaging
lakeshore flood erosion event (see marine section for details).

- band of rain showers to work through the area today with isolated
thunderstorms possible.

- windy conditions today through Tuesday night.

- lake effect rain Tuesday through Tuesday night.

- additional small chances for precipitation through the period.

Discussion (today through next Sunday)
issued at 330 am edt Mon oct 21 2019
another fall storm system will affect the region over the course of
the next 36 to 48 hours. We finally have some consensus with the
depth of the low, in the 980's mb's, over wisconsin. Yesterday a run
of the ECMWF deterministic had a 975mb low over wisconsin. Now both
the GFS and ECMWF are in the low 980's. Still a formidable low by
great lakes fall standards. A reason why this will be a bit more
impactful in terms of winds along the lakeshore is that the low in
wisconsin pinwheels towards us late tonight into Tuesday morning.

This will place the tightest pressure gradient right over lake
michigan. See details in the marine section on the gale warning and
lakeshore flood warning that are now in place. We may need to
consider a wind advisory on the land in the lakeshore counties for
especially on Tuesday. At this point holding off on that, but the
day shift may need to consider it.

A band of rain showers will work through the area today along and
ahead of the occluded cold fronts. Still only weak instability, but
not out of the realm of possibilities to see a few isolated
thunderstorms. We will be watching this as there is significant wind
aloft on the order of 60 knots at 3000ft today. Also considered a
wind advisory today on the land in the warm air advection, but
thought the stable conditions of clouds and rain should keep us just
under advisory criteria on the "warm" side of the system.

A dry slot will work through tonight with lake effect rain showers
kicking in late tonight into Tuesday as instability increases over
lake michigan. The lake is around +13c right now, or 55f. We need
temps around 0c at 850mb's to generate lake precip which swings in
tonight. A raw day on Tuesday with lake effect rain and brisk winds.

Conditions improve Tuesday night with the wind beginning to ease up
slightly and the lake precipitation starting to wind down.

Much of the remainder of the period will feature fairly quiet
weather with ridging in place at the surface late in the week. We do
have a surface trough moving through Wednesday into Wednesday night
which will bring some scattered rain showers.

Into next weekend there is some disparity between the GFS and ecmwf
in regard to a system moving into the southern great lakes. The ec
has a system the GFS does not. At this point we have small pops, 20
pct out on Saturday night into Sunday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 155 am edt Mon oct 21 2019
fairly impactful aviation weather conditions are expected the next
24 hours. The main items of concern are strong winds today and a
push of MVFR ifr conditions through the area this afternoon. There
is a small chance for a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
as well, but left this out of the forecast at this point given the
small threat.

A cold front will push through the area this evening with a period
of stronger winds and lower ceilings ahead of the front today.

Winds will increase considerably late this morning, after 14z to
15z. Southeast winds will increase into the 15-30 knot range with
some higher gusts into the 30-40 knot range. The winds will turn
south and decrease a bit for this evening. Aloft, southeast winds
will be near 50 knots at 2,000ft creating some low level wind
shear.

As for the low clouds, expect MVFR clouds to invade the area
between 15z and 18z with ifr clouds moving through after 18z.

Visibilities will dip to 3-5 miles in rain showers.

Conditions should improve this evening as the low clouds are
scoured out after 00z and the winds decrease in speed for a brief
time.

Marine
Issued at 330 am edt Mon oct 21 2019
another impactful marine lakeshore event is looming from today
through Tuesday night. A strong fall low pressure system will move
across wisconsin placing our lakeshore under a tight pressure
gradient for several forecast periods. We will leave the gale
warning as is from late this morning all the way through 800am on
Wednesday. The wind today will be of a warm air advection variety
with precipitation ongoing, so we may not realize all the wind that
is in the profile aloft. 60 knots is forecast at 3000ft, so plenty
of wind available.

The main event will occur from around 800pm this evening lasting
through tonight, Tuesday and into Tuesday night. The event looks
similar to the one last week in terms of wind speeds, so solid 40
knot gales. The difference will be wind direction. Last week was a
nw to nnw wind event. This one is a southwest flow event. We often
think of our shoreline as a north south coast, but we indeed have an
irregular shore in spots. So, the portions of the shoreline that
faces southwest will be most in the line of fire. Those locations
are essentially areas north of port sheldon, but especially the
south sides of big and little sable points. Ludington state park
south through epworth and ludington will see an almost directly
onshore flow as will areas from the little sable point light south
through whitehall. Waves will build tonight and peak on Tuesday into
Tuesday evening in the 10-13 foot range.

This event has the potential to be a bit more impactful than the
last event which saw damage along our lakeshore with debris strewn
on the beach in many areas. This event is a more onshore and of
longer duration. We are looking at likely dune and beach erosion,
flooding of low lying areas near the lakeshore and waves that will
completely sweep across pier decks. Lake levels in terms of flooding
are only about 5 inches or so off the peak that occurred this
summer. So we are still well above normal in regard to lake levels
at 581.58 feet as of a couple of days ago. The all time monthly mean
record is 582.35 feet. The high lake levels combined with a storm
rise of probably 1 to 2 feet and battering waves on top of that in
an onshore flow leads to impactful conditions with loss of
dune property likely.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Wednesday for miz037-043-050-056-064-071.

Lm... Gale warning from 11 am this morning to 8 am edt Wednesday for
lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Duke
discussion... Duke
aviation... Duke
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 1 mi36 min E 9.9 G 12 53°F
45168 3 mi26 min NE 14 G 16 55°F 58°F1 ft1011.3 hPa49°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 24 mi36 min NW 1 G 4.1 56°F 1011.2 hPa (-2.3)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 26 mi48 min E 8.9 G 11 52°F 59°F1011.1 hPa49°F
45029 35 mi26 min NE 12 G 16 54°F 56°F1 ft1011.7 hPa48°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi36 min ESE 14 G 16
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 57 mi26 min E 8.9 G 11 50°F 1012.8 hPa46°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI3 mi40 minESE 410.00 miOvercast52°F52°F100%1011.5 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi43 minSE 610.00 miOvercast56°F51°F84%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm4--3CalmCalm3N43NW3NW43CalmNE3NE4E3E4E3E3E5E6SE6
1 day agoSE7SE4SE7SE6S7S9S10
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SE8SE7SE4CalmCalmE4SE5S4S3SW7SE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE6SE6E66Calm4S7S5S6SE3E3SE4CalmSE5SE6SE3SE4SE6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.