Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 6:42 PM EST (23:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:48PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 329 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Light rain and light sleet this evening. Chance of light freezing rain. Chance of light rain, light snow and light sleet after midnight.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain and light snow in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain and light snow in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 329 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure moves south and east of long island tonight into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure also lingers near the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes south of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest either late this weekend or early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 262335 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 635 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Periods of snow will continue overnight, as low pressure tracks across the region. The snow will taper to snow showers for Wednesday afternoon and night. An arctic air mass will bring frigid conditions along with gusty winds for Thursday night into Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Wednesday .

As of 630 PM, Two translating bands along with some bandlets have moved across the local area resulting in 2 to 4 inches of snowfall with locally around 5 inches in portions of Fulton and Saratoga counties. Public Information Statement are being issued. Thanks to those who have sent us reports, very helpful!

Coverage and intensity of snow has decreased especially for areas south of I-90. Some breaks in precipitation are expected as deeper forcing shifts to our north and east and forcing mechanisms become driven more from lower level features such as orographic lift. The enhanced clouds tops have moved off to our north and east so ice nucleation is decreasing within the clouds, so getting some patchy light freezing rain/drizzle and/or snow grains especially across portions of the southeast Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut this evening. Areas north of I-90 should still see snow mainly light in intensity.

After midnight, the southern periphery of remnant sheared mid/upper level low will sink east/southeast across the region, providing slightly deeper forcing from deformation processes, and also some increased low level convergence with an inverted trough across southern areas. So, snow coverage may increase after midnight for areas north of I-90 initially, then trending closer to or just south of I-90 toward daybreak.

Temps will likely hold steady through much of the night (mainly lower/mid 20s, except mid/upper 20s the mid Hudson Valley), with some possibility for slight rises toward daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Wednesday, lingering areas of light snow in the morning, especially for the I-90 corridor and points south, due to lingering mid level deformation and low level convergence. Snow should become more showery during the afternoon, although could increase in coverage once again across the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT toward sunset with the approach of another upper level impulse. Up to an additional inch could occur during the morning hours, especially from the Capital Region south and east. High temps may briefly rise into the lower/mid 30s for valley areas from Albany south and east in the afternoon, perhaps upper 30s within the mid Hudson Valley, with mainly upper 20s to lower 30s elsewhere.

Another disturbance approaching from the west may work in tandem with lingering low level moisture across the region, allowing for an increase in snow showers for Wednesday night. This could lead to additional snowfall accumulations of a coating to one inch for valley areas, with locally 1-3 inches possible across higher terrain areas of the Taconics, southern VT and Berkshires. Lows mainly in the 20s, except for some teens across the SW Adirondacks.

For Thursday, some mid level drying overspreads the region in the wake of aforementioned disturbance, so snow shower coverage should remain isolated and confined mainly to higher terrain areas. A potent upper level disturbance will then approach from the northwest for Thursday night. Forcing and mid level cooling from this feature may allow for scattered snow showers to develop late Thursday night, along with some Lake Enhanced snowbands potentially reaching into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Localized coatings to 1-2 inches could occur if and where any snow showers persist. Highs Thursday mainly in the 20s. Turning colder late Thursday night, with lows by daybreak Friday mainly in the single digits and teens, although some subzero temperatures will be possible across higher terrain areas of the SW Adirondacks.

In addition, wind chills may drop into the -15F to -25F range by daybreak Friday for higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks, southern VT, and the eastern Catskills, which may require issuance of wind chill advisories.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. An impressive closed low with origins from northern Canada will track into the Northeast early on Friday, resulting in a surge of arctic air across the region. As the trough axis progresses through the area late Thursday night into early Friday morning, it becomes somewhat negatively tilted with 850mb isotherms in its wake dropping to -20C to -25C which is 1 to 2 standard deviation below normal. This is rather impressive given we are now at the climatological coldest part of the year. While the upper level forcing associated with the incoming trough axis is decently strong, it swings through our area early in the day near 12 UTC Friday when we are at the diurnal minimum. Therefore, the potential for snow squalls is reduced since it does not line up with peak heating. However, the 500mb closed low intensifies a bit as it tracks off the New England coast with strong northwest flow in its wake promoting cold air advection throughout the day. A tight pressure gradient overhead combined within a well mixed boundary layer will allow momentum transfer of strong winds aloft down to the surface. Latest BUFKIT profiles suggest sustained north-northwest winds range 10 - 20mph with gusts up to 25 to 35mph. With temperatures only rising into the teens (single digits in the higher terrain areas), wind chill advisory thresholds look to be met in the southern Adirondacks and possibly the Berkshires (criteria thresholds -20F and -15F, respectively). For frame of reference, the normal high temperatures for late January are around freezing. The north-northwest fetch off Lake Ontario likely will result in multi-band lake effect snow that is directed into the eastern Catskills and part of Schoharie County. Otherwise, we cannot rule out some upslope generated snow showers in the Taconics.

Our frigid air mass remains in place Friday night with winds still a bit breezy, sustained near 8-12mph. A snow pack in place will help maintain the cold air mass and with ongoing cold air advection, overnight lows are expected to become quite cold falling to -10F to 5F across eastern NY and western New England. The combination of breezy winds and very cold temperatures will lead to dangerous wind chills -25F to -5F. This likely will meet wind chill advisory criteria once again for the southern Adirondacks, the southern Greens, eastern Catskills and Berkshires.

High pressure centered in northwestern Ontario builds southward towards the region on Saturday. This should act to shut off any multi-band lake effect snow but continued northerly flow will keep cold temperatures in place. High temperatures should once again fail to rise out of the teens to low 20s but we should see more in the way of sunshine. Northerly winds will only range 5 - 10mph so wind chills will likely fall below criteria for most spots.

Pressure gradient finally weakens Saturday night reducing the winds but mainly clear skies and a snow pack in place should promote radiational cooling conditions. Expect temperatures to become cold again falling to -5F to 5F but wind chills should not be an issue.

Our ~1035hPa high centered in Ontario will take control of our weather pattern on Sunday leading to mostly sunny skies with upper level flow shifting to the southeast, allowing temperatures to become "milder" rising into the mid to upper 20s.

By early next week, the southern stream disturbance that impacted California will have had the chance to traverse across the southern CONUS. Deterministic guidance (especially the ECWMF and CMC) tracks the system mainly to our south as the the strong Canadian high acts to block its northward progression. The GFS shows a more aggressive northward track but this is likely overdone. We kept slight chance and low end chance POPs in place for Monday and Tuesday given ongoing uncertainties but reduced the northern extent of chance POPs out of respect for the strong Canadian high. By Tuesday night - Wednesday, we show more widespread chance POPs as the system may gain strength as it tracks off the mid-Atlantic or New England coast.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 00z/Thu . The steadiest snow has departed the area but some periods of light snow are expected across the terminals through tonight. Some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible through about 05z/Wed as well, especially at KPOU. Flight categories will likely be mixed IFR/MVFR through the night with little if any LIFR.

For tomorrow, snow shower activity will decrease, but an isolated snow shower cannot be ruled out. Given the limited nature of these snow showers, will include VCSH for now. Cigs should be MVFR for much of the day, though some lifts to VFR are possible from time to time.

Wind will be variable at less than 6 kt tonight, then be out of the northwest (except northeast at KGFL) at 4-8 kt tomorrow.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHSN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

HYDROLOGY. No widespread hydrological issues are expected for the upcoming week and weekend. While accumulating snowfall is expected into Wednesday, this will have little impact on area rivers.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will persist through much of the week ahead with arctic air set to arrive Thursday night and last into the start of the weekend. This cold air will continue to support river and lake ice development and thickening for the remainder of this week and weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001- 013. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032- 033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001- 025. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ013>015.

SYNOPSIS . KL/BGM NEAR TERM . IAA/KL SHORT TERM . KL LONG TERM . Speciale AVIATION . Rathbun HYDROLOGY . KL/BGM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi252 min Calm 27°F 1014 hPa25°F
TKPN6 29 mi222 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 27°F 34°F1014.5 hPa (-2.0)26°F
NPXN6 41 mi252 min NNW 4.1 26°F 1016 hPa24°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi222 min NE 5.1 G 8 29°F 37°F1015.5 hPa (-2.2)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi222 min ENE 6 G 12 29°F 39°F1013.8 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi51 minE 50.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist22°F22°F100%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm--N3W3CalmN4CalmNW5NW5N5NW6NW7NW4CalmCalmN3NE3NE4NE3NE5E5
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W14W10W9W6W3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN3CalmCalm6N5CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3
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Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:55 PM EST     5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.33.73.73.12.41.81.20.60.51.22.43.64.55.15.34.93.932.21.20.40.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:51 AM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:12 PM EST     5.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:53 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.333.53.63.22.41.81.20.60.10.51.734.14.85.254.13.12.31.40.400.6

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.