Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:14PM Monday August 3, 2020 1:12 PM EDT (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 5:27AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1252 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
This afternoon..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 40 to 50 kt with gusts up to 65 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1252 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will stall within the area and weaken today into tonight. Impacts from tropical storm isaias are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. As isaias rides quickly northeast of the area on Wednesday a cold front will push off to the east, followed by building high pressure later next week. Please refer to national hurricane center forecasts for further details on isaias.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 031413 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1013 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. After a warm and mainly dry day today, Tropical Cyclone Isaias will move up the coast and bring periods of rain Monday night into Wednesday morning. The rain will be heavy at times late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Windy conditions are possible near the storm especially south and east of Albany. Drier weather returns Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1010 AM EDT, forecast is in pretty good shape for today. As expected, PWAT values have lowered and will give way to a mainly dry day (1.14" on the 12UTC KALY sounding). The lake- induced showers that developed across the Adirondacks are beginning to dissipate. Otherwise, expect a less humid day with a mix of sun and clouds. Only minor changes to temps and pops done to match latest trends.

Previous discussion: As of 700 am, cold advection occurring and resulting in an area of stratus west of the Hudson Valley. These clouds should tend to scatter out with time as diurnal mixing commences. Some showers are ongoing over the western Adirondacks due to lake moisture, cyclonic flow, and orographic lift.

A brief break in the active weather is expected today as PWATs fall to 1-1.5 inches. We will continue to reside in southwesterly midlevel flow, but deeper moisture will stay west and south through the daylight hours before increasing late in the day. Intervals of mid and high clouds are expected, thickening from south to north late. With diurnal mixing up to around 850 mb, expect highs to top out in the upper 70s to upper 80s, slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Focus in the short term is on impacts from TC Isaias. The system will be accelerating northward as it becomes squeezed between an upstream full-latitude trough and a downstream Bermuda high. The TC is forecast by the NHC to make landfall around 06Z Tuesday near the NC/SC border, then remain inland, reaching near NYC by 00Z Wed and over western ME by 12Z Wed. There continue to be timing differences among the models, although notably the 00Z ECMWF has trended toward the faster GFS, and now appears to be rather well in line with the NHC official forecast. A slight westward trend was noted in the 00Z deterministic guidance as well.

Deep layer moisture will continue to gradually increase Monday night into Tuesday morning ahead of the storm, with PWATs forecast to reach 1.50-1.75 inches. The pattern during this time period has been somewhat reminiscent of a southwesterly jet Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) per CSTAR research, where tropical moisture is advected poleward of the TC and interacts with ascent in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. However, it appears to be lacking a well-defined low level boundary. So generally showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the night Monday night into Tuesday morning, but likely without much of a flood threat yet. Highs Tuesday may finally fail to reach 80 degrees over most of the area with clouds and showers around.

It appears that the greatest heavy rainfall potential will occur over a 6-9 hour period associated with the approaching TC sometime between 18Z Tuesday and 06Z Wednesday, depending on the timing which is still uncertain. Models are depicting the heaviest swath of rain just west of the low track, associated with strong frontogenesis interacting with the juicy airmass (PWATs increasing to 2-2.25 inches, or +2 to +3 standard deviations). The system may be undergoing extratropical transition by this time. It is during this period that 3-hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches within this swath are possible as indicated by the NAM12 and HREF. Despite the antecedent dry conditions, these rainfall rates could produce flash flooding, so we will issue a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA except Herkimer County. The flash flood threat may be confined to a rather small geographic area just to the left of the storm track, but have opted to include most of the CWA due to uncertainty with the storm track.

Winds will be a secondary factor for most of the CWA, but may become strong with gusts possibly exceeding 40 mph especially if the storm tracks far enough west such that the southeastern quadrant of the storm passes through the CWA. This would be most likely in Litchfield/Dutchess/Berkshire Counties. The rainfall threat would be reduced in the southeast quadrant of the storm. There is a non-zero tornado threat in this quadrant as well, which is outlined by the marginal risk in SPC's SWODY2.

Much drier air takes hold in the wake of this system for late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with PWATs plummeting to less than an inch. Large contrast in forecast high temps ranging from the upper 60s in the southern Adirondacks to the mid-80s in the Mid Hudson Valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The extended forecast period will feature a trend for fair and dry weather in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Isaias. Temperatures will be seasonable and then trend to slightly above normal readings into next weekend.

Wed Night into Thu . The upper level trough axis lingers upstream over southeast Ontario and the western Great Lakes region, but high pressure will be ridging in at the sfc from the central and eastern Great Lakes Region. The sfc high will move over the region Thursday. Decent radiational cooling will allow lows to drop off into the 50s with some upper 40 over the mtns. The subsidence from the high will yield mostly sunny conditions on THU with seasonable temps for AUG with upper 60s to mid 70s over the mtns, and upper 70s to lower 80s over the valleys.

Thu Night-Fri Night . High pressure will still be near NY and New England. Some short-wave energy associated with the mid and upper level trough axis approaching from the west may focus a few diurnally showers south and west of the Capital Region Friday pm into Friday night. Another comfortable couple of nights humidity level wise are expected with lows in the 50s to around 60F. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday-Sunday . Mid and upper level ridging starts to build in over the East Coast with high pressure in control at the surface. A weak mid and upper level disturbance moves through Saturday with a low grade isolated threat for a showers. Overall, rising heights aloft and H850 temps in the +15C to +17C range will allow temps to rise back above normal into the mid and upper 80s in the valleys and 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain by Sunday. Humidity levels start to increase by the 2nd half of the weekend, as sfc dewpts get into the lower to mid 60s especially in the valleys.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR stratus is approaching KGFL/KALB, with cigs around 4kft. These clouds should scatter out with time as we head into the late morning. Otherwise, some mid and high clouds will be around through the day. These clouds will begin to thicken and lower around sunset, and eventually some showers will become possible, especially after 06Z. Will continue prevailing VFR mention, although vsby could briefly drop to MVFR in a steadier shower after 06Z.

Winds will be elevated early this morning with southwest to west gusts up to 20 kt. The winds should diminish a bit in the afternoon from the west at around 10 kt. Winds will become light and variable overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Definite SHRA. RA . TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Warm today with RH values falling to 45 to 60 percent and moderate westerly winds. TC Isaias will then approach, bringing increased humidity and periods of rainfall Monday night into Wednesday morning. The rain will be heavy at times, especially late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY. After a mainly dry day today, periods of rain associated with the northward progression of TC Isaias are expected Monday night into Wednesday morning. The heaviest rainfall looks to occur late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday night as the storm makes its closest approach. QPF of 2-4" is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 6" possible in a narrow swath left of the TC's track. Here, rainfall rates could exceed an inch per hour, and there could be 2-4" in a 3- hour period between 18Z Tuesday and 06Z Wednesday. There is still uncertainty on where the heaviest swath of rain will be, so a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the entire HSA except for Herkimer county.

The ALY Hydro Service area continues to be in Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions /D0 to D1/ based on the latest US Drought Monitor. The latest MMEFS guidance continues to show low probabilities for river flooding.

Drier weather will return into the mid week period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for CTZ001-013. Tropical Storm Watch for CTZ001-013. NY . Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for NYZ033-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084. MA . Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for MAZ001-025. Tropical Storm Watch for MAZ001-025. VT . Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for VTZ013>015.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson NEAR TERM . Thompson/Rathbun SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . Wasula AVIATION . Thompson FIRE WEATHER . Thompson HYDROLOGY . Thompson/Rathbun


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi102 min SW 1.9 82°F 1015 hPa65°F
TKPN6 29 mi54 min S 5.1 G 9.9 82°F 1015.7 hPa65°F
NPXN6 41 mi102 min SW 6 79°F 1016 hPa65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi54 min SW 13 G 16 78°F 78°F1015.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi54 min SW 12 G 17 80°F 76°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi21 minWNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F61°F56%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN6CalmN43E3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8S8S8S5SE4S6SE7SE8S16
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2 days agoCalmNW9N6NW6NW4N4NE4W3NW4N3N5CalmNW4NW3N3NW4CalmN3N4NW4CalmCalmCalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Mon -- 04:50 AM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:17 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:18 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.23.34.24.95.24.63.72.71.60.3-0.4-0.10.81.82.73.43.83.62.92.31.60.80.1

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:07 AM EDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:35 AM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:34 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:45 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.52.73.84.65.14.73.82.91.80.6-0.5-0.60.11.32.233.63.632.31.70.90.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.