Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday December 12, 2019 11:42 PM EST (04:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:58PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1000 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of drizzle in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1000 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move father offshore overnight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for late Monday night into much of Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 122356 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 656 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift east of the area tonight into Friday, with clouds increasing. A few light showers may begin on Friday, but most of the rain is expected Friday night into Saturday along with mild temperatures. A strong cold front will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday. It will turn colder and windy behind the front, with showers diminishing.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 630 PM, not much change as thin canopy of ci/cs was streaming across the night sky. Temperatures not changing too much but will become quite diversified between where skies clear periodically. Light southerly winds will prevail and additional details can be found below .

Prev Disc, strong 1040 mb high pressure remains centered over southern New England, resulting in tranquil but chilly conditions locally. There are areas of high cirrus over the area and off to the west. Main forecast challenge for tonight will be cloud cover and temperatures. Return flow begins to develop as the high shifts east, but sheltered areas (mainly lower elevations not located in north/south valleys) still have the potential to decouple under the influence of the departing high. This potential will also depend on the degree of cloud cover. Will hedge slightly colder than the NBM for lows, closer to MOS guidance, anticipating the possibility of a quick drop in temps after sunset in areas where clearing in the cloud deck develops. The temps may tend to stabilize or rise a bit in north/south valleys overnight where a southerly wind develops.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Friday into Friday night, low-level jet forcing will increase ahead of a trough digging into the Southeast US. This will allow for an increase in deep-layer moisture, with PWAT values increasing to 0.75-1.00 inches by late Friday night. The increase in LLJ forcing and deep moisture will be gradual on Friday, so much of the day may end up being dry, especially from the Capital District north. There is some possibility of drizzle/freezing drizzle as forecast soundings show low-level saturation with dry air aloft, mainly at higher elevations. Will continue to monitor, but confidence is not high enough for a winter weather headline at this point. A persistent southerly flow will boost temperatures back near/slightly above normal despite the clouds.

Friday night, the low-level jet forcing will be maximized over the region, but the best moisture convergence/moisture plume will be pointed just to our east. Still, this will likely be the period where the steadiest rainfall will occur. We will also be favorably positioned under the equatorward entrance region of a strong upper jet. Temps will continue to rise overnight and should go above freezing everywhere. 925 mb winds go easterly around 25-35 kt, so gusty winds are expected over and just to the lee of the higher terrain of western New England and the Taconics.

On Saturday, the surface low will track directly through the forecast area from south to north. With the best moisture convergence tracking east of the area and models depicting a midlevel dry slot, we could see the precip become more showery or end for a time. Temps should be quite mild in the 40s to lower 50s. The low deepens quickly as it moves north of the area, likely around 975 mb around the Gaspe Peninsula by 12Z Sunday (a 24-drop of around 20 mb). Windy conditions will quickly develop over the local area on the southern periphery of the circulation, with cold advection changing rain showers to snow showers over the terrain. The snow could be rather persistent across the western Adirondacks with a combination of deformation and upslope forcing. Rain showers will diminish with time Saturday night into Sunday, ending first in the valleys.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The storm will begin to lift northeastward into New England and eastern Canada during Sunday night. Moist, cyclonic northwesterly flow will remain in place, especially across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, which will result in scattered snow showers (some lake-enhanced). Drier weather will reach the Capital District and points south and east.

Any lake-effect or lake-enhanced snow showers will gradually come to an end on Monday as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure builds overhead. Highs Monday will range from the low to mid-30s across the Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills to the 20s elsewhere.

Dry weather will be short-lived as the next upper-level trough and surface low develops across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys later Monday through Tuesday. There remain small differences with the track of this system with the 12z GFS tracking the low to our north and west and the 12z ECMWF with a track to our south and east. A storm track north and west would likely result in precipitation starting as snow, then changing to sleet, freezing rain and, in some places, plain rain. A storm track to the south and east would bring mostly snow (with perhaps a wintry mix across the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills). We will continue to run with a blended approach, with a south and east track the more likely solution at this time.

In the wake of this system, colder air returns ahead of another arctic front, set to sweep across the region later Wednesday into Thursday. A west to southwesterly flow ahead of this front will lead to the development of lake-effect snow showers and squalls, generally impacting the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Some of these snow showers could reach parts of the Hudson Valley. Yet another system could move across the Great Lakes on Thursday with additional light snow. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the 20s across the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions should prevail tonight with a light wind. Some differences remain among the near-term models when precipitation arrives on Friday. The NAM is most aggressive bringing in precipitation to at least KPOU and possibly KPSF in the 12z-18z range with the HRRR not too far behind. Those probabilities increase during Friday afternoon as we will include a PROB30 at this time. Temperature profiles are cold enough for mixed precipitation if the NAM proves correct with the onset. So we have continued with VCSH at the later stages of the TAF period with PROB30 during the afternoon hours.

Outlook .

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather will continue through tonight. The next storm system will be moving from the south for Friday into the weekend. Although some lighter showers are possible on Friday, they should be inconsequential. The steadiest rainfall looks to occur for late Friday night into Saturday morning. Rainfall will taper to showers and may change to snow showers for the high terrain for Saturday night into Sunday.

Total rainfall with this system appears to be about 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with some locally higher totals possible across the high terrain. This will allow rivers and streams to once again rise. Milder temperatures returning with the rainfall may allow for some additional runoff due to snow melt as well.

At this time, MMEFS suggest that most rivers should remain within their banks. There is a low probability of some flooding mainly in the western New England basins and along the Hoosic Saturday.

Behind this system, colder and drier weather will return for Monday. The next system could approach by Tuesday, but precipitation is mainly expected to be snow with that system.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson NEAR TERM . BGM/Thompson SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . Rathbun AVIATION . BGM/OKeefe HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi73 min E 1 28°F 1036 hPa16°F
TKPN6 29 mi73 min S 8.9 G 12 29°F 34°F1037.5 hPa18°F
NPXN6 41 mi73 min SSE 1.9 26°F 1039 hPa18°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi73 min SSW 7 G 9.9 34°F 42°F1038.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi73 min SSW 7 G 8.9 33°F 44°F1038 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi52 minS 710.00 miOvercast30°F12°F47%1035.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14NW11W7W3N3CalmS4CalmCalmW7W6W3CalmNW3SE4S3S4S5S6S5S12S6S11S7
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Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:15 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:25 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:32 PM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.33.13.743.8321.30.80.30.41.32.744.95.35.34.63.42.31.60.80.2

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:32 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     5.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.62.73.43.83.83.12.11.30.80.2-00.61.93.44.55.15.34.83.62.51.60.80.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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