Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Selma, OR

AVIATION
23/06Z TAFs...Northerly winds have increased at most terminals this afternoon, with the strongest winds along the coast.
Wind gusts through the evening will peak at 30-35kt at North Bend, while inland sites will generally see wind gusts in the 15-25kt range.

VFR conditions will remain for inland areas tonight. MVFR ceilings have been toggling around Coos Bay and Bandon and will continue tonight. An upper level short wave will amplify as it moves across the area tonight. This will cause clouds to develop across SE sections (NE California into southern Klamath/Lake counties).
Overall, conditions likely remain VFR, though local MVFR and terrain obscurations are possible in any showers that develop, especially near the Warner Mtns. These clouds persist and showers remain possible through Wednesday morning. A slightly uptick in winds near the coast are possible tomorrow afternoon as well.
-Spilde/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 849 PM PDT Tue Apr 22 2025/

DISCUSSION...An upper level shortwave is moving into the area tonight then will shift eastward on Wednesday. This disturbance will result in some showers developing over the parts of the area.
Radar imagery shows some light showers east of the Cascades this evening, mainly across southern Lake county. Models continue to support showers developing over portions of the area from the Southern Oregon Cascades east and into southern/eastern Siskiyou and Modoc counties tonight and Wednesday. Weak instability is expected in the afternoon on Wednesday with low chances (10-20%)
for thunderstorms to develop, mainly in southeast Siskiyou and Modoc counties. The shortwave will gradually shift eastward, exiting the area Wednesday evening.

Meanwhile, west of the Cascades, weak ridging will build into the area Wednesday as the upper level disturbance gradually moves east, resulting in dry weather. After some cool morning temperatures, expect warm afternoon conditions with highs near or slightly warmer than today.

Then, an upper low then approaches the area Thursday. Ahead of this low expect some weak instability and mid level moisture under southwest flow aloft. This will bring some chances (15-20%) for showers into western Siskiyou County on Thursday morning, with chances for showers increasing and expanding across Siskiyou County and northward into southwest Oregon (mainly from the Southern Oregon Cascades west) on Thursday afternoon, then across much of the area Thursday evening. Additionally, the National Blend of models supports a slight chance (10-20%) for thunderstorms developing along with showers Thursday afternoon and evening in Siskiyou County and into the Siskiyou Mountains and southernmost portions of the Southern Oregon Cascades. Areas farther north, including central/northern Jackson, Josephine, and eastern Douglas counties have a 10% chance for thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon/evening. Have updated the forecast to reflect the slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.

MARINE
Updated 815 PM Tuesday, April 22nd
Moderate to strong north winds will gradually diminish tonight, but seas will still remain elevated enough for Small craft conditions to continue with Hazardous Seas Warning conditions south of Port Orford into Wednesday evening.

Calmer conditions are likely Thursday and Friday. Weak low pressure will move into the waters Friday bringing scattered showers. Seas are expected to remain on the low side with no marine hazards on Friday. -Spilde/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 PM PDT Tue Apr 22 2025/

DISCUSSION...Northwest flow aloft continues to support seasonable temperatures and uneventful conditions across northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. A weak upper trough will pass over the area this evening and through the day Wednesday. Winds may be a little breezier than normal this evening, but nothing remotely hazardous is expected. There will be some moderate shower chances (20-40%) across Modoc, eastern Siskiyou, and southern Lake counties through the day Wednesday. Any showers that do form will be isolated or scattered. Rainfall will be measured in the hundreths of an inch, if it even reaches the ground. Instability will be weak, with periods of 200-300 J/Kg at most on Wednesday evening. Lightning is not widely expected, but a stray strike or two is not impossible.

Conditions calm through the day Thursday as the pattern changes with an approaching upper level low pressure system. Southerly flow aloft along the leading edge of the system will allow for initial slight precipitation chances (15-30%) over the Siskiyou ranges and the Cascades on Thursday afternoon. Cooler daytime temperatures are forecast for Friday and continue through the weekend. With the low expected to pass to the south, gusty winds are not a concern through the weekend.

Widespread precipitation chances (40-80%) are forecast for Friday as the low passes to the south. Southerly flow aloft on Friday will bring more showers to areas west of and along the Cascades as well as northern Klamath and Lake counties. Higher terrain could see between 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rainfall, with 0.3 inches or less of rainfall for lower elevation areas. Snow levels of 5000 feet west of the Cascades will allow for 2-4 inches of snowfall over southwestern Siskiyou County peaks and ridgelines. Snow levels of 5500-6500 feet along and east of the Cascades will keep unremarkable snowfall to the highest terrain. Rainfall over Modoc and southern Lake and Klamath counties will generally be 0.1 inches or less.

40-80% precipitation chances continue across the area on Saturday, but flow aloft will be more easterly as the low passes over California. This will bring higher precipitation amounts to Lake and Modoc counties. Amounts are still unimpactful, with one-fourth of an inch or less of rainfall forecast for east side basins. Snow levels along and east of the Cascades will drop slightly to 5000-6000 feet, allowing for 4-8 inches of snowfall over Warner Mountain peaks through the day. Bly Mountain and the Cascades may see 2-4 inches of snowfall at the highest elevations. These amounts are not near product thresholds, but extra caution traveling through these areas on Saturday would not hurt. Rainfall over west side valleys will generally be 0.1 inches or less.

Activity starts to decrease late Saturday night, with any Sunday showers limited to the Cascades and easternmost Lake and Modoc counties. High pressure over the Pacific Ocean will bring generally drier conditions and seasonal temperatures through next week.
Meteogram guidance for both the ECMWF and GFS show occasional weak and brief precipitation signals, as well as wide ranges in daytime highs across ensemble members. How the high develops will be important for resulting conditions next week, but impactful or hazardous conditions currently look unlikely in the long-term.
-TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.