Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:37 PM   Moonset 2:35 AM

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FXUS61 KBGM 192313 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 713 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
After mostly clear skies and valley fog tonight, mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected on Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update:

Main change with this update was to remove the slight chance PoPs for the Catskills-Poconos since it is unlikely that any showers will form. Even if something does pop up, any precipitation will likely not be measurable. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Setup looks good for radiational valley fog to form overnight.

3 PM Update

Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling and with plenty of low level moisture (low dew point depressions), valley fog will likely develop over the region.
There is some question as to how extensive the fog will be, and if if can reach some of the mid elevation locations as well. It will be seasonable overnight, with lows in the 50s.

Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm and 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 567dm.
With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep most of the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity.
Once again there is a small chance that terrain and or some lake breezes will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap, over the Central Southern Tier and SW Finger Lakes but odds are low (20%). The rest of the region will see the fog burn off by mid morning, then mostly sunny skies. The latest trends in the bias corrected guidance is increasing temperatures even more...with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the valley locations...with upper 70s to low 80s over the higher elevations. Winds will be light west-southwesterly under 10 mph.

High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night, with perhaps some patchy valley fog again. It will be milder, with lows only dipping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
248 PM update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the hot air mass with well-above-normal high temperatures, along with afternoon/evening showers and storms.

Synoptic pattern will be defined by an upper level ridge extending from the southern Atlantic coast northward into southern New England. A surface high off the coast will draw in moisture from the Atlantic as a potent low pressure system in the central US lifts into the western Great Lakes and several weak waves traverse the ridge of the Appalachians into NY/PA.
The air mass will become unstable during the afternoon periods of these two days. Temperatures will climb into the 80s both days, with some valley or northern Finger Lake plain/western Mohawk Valley locations getting close to 90 on Wednesday.
Surface dew points will only push into the lower 60s, so rising air parcels are expected to only become weak to modestly buoyant. Forcing along these passing waves will interact with the unstable environment in the afternoon and evening to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Mixed layer CAPE values will hover around the 500-1000 J/kg range on Tuesday and the highest values should be be mostly confined to western and the lake plain south of Ontario. Greater instability is expected to be present on Wednesday...jumping up to 800-1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear will be minimal across the region as the region will be generally situated under the upper ridge axis. This will cause storms to be mostly pulse-type and on the weak end of the intensity spectrum.

This period will definitely need to be watched if the stronger dynamics to the west end up shifting eastward closer to the more unstable air. At this time, widespread severe weather is not expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
248 PM update...
The cold front to the west is expected to push to the east through the region Wed night into Thu this week and will take advantage of the 1-1.5 inches of PW, forcing along the front and a corridor of instability to produce an axis of convection that will move through the Northeast US during the day Thursday.
Thursday will most likely be the most favorable day for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms as this front moves through.

The air mass behind the front will be of Canadian origin and quite dry and cool. Surface dew points in the 40s and afternoon highs in the 70s will be a nice relief from the hotter conditions earlier in the week. The next chance of rain looks to be Saturday night into Sunday.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure overhead with mostly clear skies overnight and calm winds. However, fog is likely to develop after midnight with VLIFR restrictions possible at ELM and BGM. Forecast confidence for fog at RME and SYR is low, but there are some hints that at least MVFR visibility restrictions will be possible early Monday morning.

Any fog that impacts terminals will burn off around 13Z and then VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the period.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

Tivoli
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Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:05 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
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Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Catskill
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Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:23 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Catskill, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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