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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 352 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Monday night...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain in the evening will taper off to showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 031123 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 623 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
A steady rainfall is expected today as a low pressure system moves through the area. Temperatures will continue to be above normal today, returning to near-normal for Monday, then slightly below normal temperatures return for midweek. The pattern remains unsettled with multiple chances for rain and snow showers this week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
615 AM Update:

Made some slight modifications to PoPs for the next few hours as rain has spread into the area slightly quicker than originally anticipated. The overall message of the forecast remains the same; it will still be a mild and rainy day. Will have to keep an eye on the potential for a few thunderstorms west of I-81 for early this evening. Best parameters for gusty winds from these isolated thunderstorms will be located south and west of our area (more across Western/Central PA), but this will need to be watched as the day progresses.

345 AM Update:

Locally dense fog continues early this morning, especially across Central New York. If traveling early this morning, be sure to use caution on the roadways with low beam headlights and leave extra space while driving.

Meanwhile, light rain showers have moved northward into Northeast PA ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These showers are expected to continue to progress northward into the rest of the area through this morning, becoming a steadier rainfall after daybreak. This low pressure system will rapidly move northeastward during the day today. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low pressure will develop across the Great Lakes, which will bring a brief resurgence of rain later in the day into this evening. Some elevated instability may even result in a few weak isolated thunderstorms early this evening across Central NY west of I-81. Aside from the rain, today will feature cloudy skies with continued above normal temperatures (highs in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees).

Tonight, the low pressure system over the Great Lakes will pull north of our area, resulting in the steadier rainfall tapering off to just a few showers. By late tonight/early Monday morning, winds will shift to a westerly direction, which will allow for some wrap-around/lake enhanced rain showers to develop across Central NY, perhaps mixing with snow at the highest elevations and across northern Oneida county. While skies will remain cloudy across Central NY, partial clearing is expected tonight across Northeast PA to perhaps the far Southern Tier of NY. Lows are expected to be in the mid 30s to near 40.

850 mb temperatures will fall to around -6C during the day on Monday. This, combined with a west-northwesterly flow will allow for some lake effect rain and snow showers to continue across Central NY. A passing weak shortwave may allow for these showers to reach as far south as the Northern Tier of PA as well, but the majority of Northeast PA will remain dry under mostly cloudy skies. Highs are expected to be closer to normal for this time of the year; mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
245 AM Update...
A mostly northwesterly flow will keep clouds, spotty mixed snow and rain showers, and a narrow diurnal temperature range going through midweek as weak waves pass through the region.

A small upper wave is projected to finish going through the region Monday evening, giving way to weak yet temporary ridging into Tuesday morning. 850mb temperatures will be in the -5 to -7C range which could aid in a minor contribution of lake moisture, but moisture overall will be fairly shallow with temperatures dipping to within a few degrees above or below freezing. Chances for showers, generally Twin Tiers northward, will tend to focus more on the typical higher terrain zone of northeast Tompkins-southern Cayuga- southern Onondaga-Madison-northwest Chenango-Cortland counties.
However, amounts will be very light. Those higher elevations could pick up a few to several tenths of an inch of snow Monday night into Tuesday morning, but lower elevations will struggle to accumulate any at all while also being mixed with rain. Lows Monday night will eventually settle into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Weak dirty ridge will generally keep moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion, so even very small chance so precipitation if any, clouds will dominate and temperatures will move little. Highs will only be in the 30s for most, though some valleys of Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY could manage 40 degrees.

Models depict a broader upper wave, with lobe of deeper moisture, pivoting back across the region late Tuesday through midday Wednesday. This will maintain clouds, light batches of terrain- influenced snow showers mixed with rain, and stubborn temperatures.
Lows of mid 20s-lower 30s are forecast Tuesday night, then temperatures mostly 30s Wednesday. Again minor skiffs of light snow accumulation may occur in the typical higher terrain locations of Central NY with very little if any elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
245 AM Update...
Temperatures are forecast to trend milder as we head towards next weekend, though a clipper may first bring a chance of light precipitation Thursday.

Models depict ridging building into the region late this week, with resultant developing southwest flow in the lower-to-mid levels and thus warm air advection. On the front side of the ridge, while northwest flow still exists aloft, the door will remain open for a weak wave or two to translate quickly across the area. This will probably take the form of a clipper system around Thursday. A quick shot of mainly snow, albeit quite light, cannot be ruled out when this wave passes. It could also turn out to be more midlevel clouds and virga than precipitation if there is too much dry air in the lower levels. For now we maintain a 20-40 percent chance of mainly snow Thursday-Thursday night, generally Twin Tiers northward.

Though the expectation is for temperatures to trend milder Friday- Saturday, there is quite a lot of spread in the National Blend of Models for how much. The 75-90th percentiles send much of our area into the 50s next weekend, yet the 25th percentile is much flatter with the trend. In fact, little changed from midweek values closer to climatology. Either way, looking out ahead it does appear pattern amplification occurs longer term, which would support more organized systems and higher chances for precipitation - probably mostly rain - by about a week from now.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Widespread IFR ceiling and/or visby restrictions are expected today, along with rain and drizzle. There is a chance of slight improvement this afternoon, but widespread restrictions will still likely be present. Rain tapers off this evening, but restrictions will likely remain. Slight improvement to Fuel Alternate will be possible towards the end of the TAF period (in the 03Z-06Z Monday timeframe).

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers, mainly at the Central NY terminals.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in snow showers, mainly at the Central NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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