Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Hill, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
200 PM Update...

Air quality will be an issue through this evening across CNY as smoke aloft and haze from Canada slides into the region, thus an Air Quality Alert has been issued for small particulates across most of Central NY (except Sullivan county). Otherwise, skies will be mainly sunny with seasonably warm temperatures this evening.

Tonight remain mostly clear, warm and muggy as the ridge axis slides east of the area and SW flow pushes a southern airmass into the region. Temperatures and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s once again. There could be some patchy fog around.

Wednesday will remain hot and muggy, with temperatures and dewpoints a few degrees warmer than Today. Heat indices are expected to reach advisory criteria for the Finger Lakes, portions of the Southern Tier and Mohawk Valley. Confidence has increase, and a Heat Advisory is now in effect for these area from 11 AM to 8 PM Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and with dew points 70 to 75 peak heat indices will reach well into the 90s over the region.

A strong shortwave is expected to move into the area late Weds afternoon or early evening, bringing increasing clouds, showers and t'storms across the region, which could eventually lower temperatures by the evening, at least for western portions of the area. There remains uncertainty on exact timing for the clouds showers and storms to arrive, but the latest guidance is trending later, mainly after 4-6 PM for most locations.

Model soundings show a very moist atmosphere with long, skinny CAPE and deep warm cloud depths, leading to storms producing heavy rain and possible flash flooding. PWATs will reach 1.6 to 1.9 inches by Wednesday evening, along with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg expected. Bulk shear is fairly light, between 15-25 kts which should limit severe storm potential. However, with the high instability a stray stronger or even isolated severe pulse storm cannot be ruled out. SPC now has the western half of the area in a Marginal Severe Risk (level 1 of 5). The main potential with any of these stronger storm will be isolated damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values on the 12z GFS soundings have increase to around 1000 J/kg in the late afternoon & evening, and this indicates the potential for those wind gusts with the storms.

A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is present across NEPA Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
With the recent heavy rain over this area Sunday and Monday, flash flooding will be achieved easier (with lower flash flood guidance) thus necessitating the Slight Risk. The rest of the region is under a Marginal Risk where slow moving storms dropping heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding issues. At this time, confidence was not quite high enough on the timing and location of convection to issue any flood watches, but if confidence does increase watches may be needed. Scattered showers and storms continue into Wednesday night along with mainly cloudy skies and warm, humid conditions. Overnight lows only dip down into the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Showers and thunderstorms will be likely on Thursday as an additional surge of moisture moves in a head of an approaching cold front. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible with PWATs around 1.75". It will remain warm and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Drier air will begin to advect in Thursday night, which will allow for showers and thunderstorms to gradually end.

By Friday, high pressure moves into the area behind the departing cold front. This will result in much cooler and less humid conditions with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees and dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A stray shower cannot be totally ruled out, but trends continue to trend towards a dry day with mostly sunny skies. With high pressure overhead Friday night and a cool airmass in place, temperatures Friday night will dip down to at least the upper 40s to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mostly sunny weather on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer compared to Friday (highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s), but lower dewpoints should keep humidity levels rather low. An approaching frontal system will bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Drier weather arrives for Monday and Tuesday with weak ridging in place, but cannot rule out a couple of shortwaves moving through, which could result in a slight chance for some additional showers. Temperatures in the long term will otherwise remain seasonable with highs in the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least this evening. By late tonight/early Wednesday morning, patchy fog/mist will be possible at KAVP, KBGM, and KELM, which may result in at least MVFR restrictions. Despite clear skies and light winds, confidence is a bit lower than usual for fog development at KELM due to their being a possibility that overnight low temperatures remain well above the crossover temperature there. Any restrictions likely end by 12Z Wednesday, which will result in a return to mainly VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring occasional restrictions.

Thursday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ015>018- 023>025-036-037-055-056.