Saugus, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugus, MA

June 14, 2024 12:51 PM EDT (16:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:04 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM
Moonrise 1:06 PM   Moonset 1:05 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 1004 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .

This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with scattered tstms. Some tstms may produce damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely. Scattered tstms in the evening. Some tstms may produce damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall in the evening.

Sat - N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.

Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.

Sun - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.

Mon through Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1004 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pressure provides dry weather and southwest winds through Friday. Then very late Fri into Fri night, an approaching cold front will be accompanied by scattered showers and Thunderstorms, possibly accompanied by strong winds, downpours and frequent lightning, especially near shore. Saturday morning a few showers may linger, before the cold front exits offshore Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a tropical low will likely track southeast of the 40n/70w benchmark Saturday, then across eastern georges bank Sat night and finally out to sea. High pressure builds over new england Sunday, then offshore Monday. This will yield a prolong period of ssw flow next week along with a very warm airmass.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugus, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 141357 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 957 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm and muggy today with scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening...some of which may be severe mainly northwest of I-95. A few lingering spot showers are possible early Saturday...otherwise high pressure brings dry and beautiful weather for the weekend with low humidity. A warm- up begins on Monday with an extended period of excessive heat and humidity possible beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

930 AM Update...

Given the current satellite, the 00Z NAMNest seems to performing well as one of the only pieces of guidance picking up on the bubbling cu and patchy light shower activity draped from approximately from Orange MA to central CT. A more robust line of showers remains just to the west of our CWA, just now making it's way into Berkshire County.

CAMs continue to lack consensus on the exact timing of storms today with the potential for several rounds of storms through about 03Z tonight. While there is still significant spread in the guidance, the general consensus is that a first line of convection, with perhaps a few embedded stronger cells, will develop and move across the state between 16-19Z with a stronger line of convection developing across western MA around 20Z before moving eastward through ~00Z.

Current mesoanalysis shows CAPE building to greater than 2000J/kg this afternoon with bulk shear values increasing to around 30-35kt. DCAPE will decrease from a max of 900J/kg this morning to between 500-700J/kg this afternoon, but do still anticipate some strong to damaging gusts associated with the second line of convection. Freezing levels around 12,000ft and with shear a bit to low, at least in our area as bulk shear climbs in excess of 45kt across northern New England/NY/PA, severe criteria hail will be hard to come by.

705 AM Update...

Key Points

* Warm and muggy start to the day * Scattered severe thunderstorms mainly NW of I-95

Previous forecast remains on track. Main concern continues to revolve around the threat for scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the main risk northwest of I-95.
Timing of the convection remains tricky...but appears we may have two rounds. The first in the noon to 5 pm range on a pre- frontal trough and perhaps a second round as the shortwave approaches early this evening. Prior forecast discusses this all below.

Today will be a warm and humid day with temperatures quickly rising into the mid to upper 80s and dew points reaching the mid to upper 60s. This will help set the stage for scattered severe thunderstorms as a potent shortwave trough and cold front drops SE across the region in the afternoon. As the cold front moves through, a very narrow corridor of instability will be set up across western MA and CT. There continues to be some disagreement among the hi-res HRRR guidance on how much instability will be available mainly due to timing differences on convective development. HRRR mean shows near 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE with the 90th percentile showing around 2000 J/kg. With deep layer shear approaching 30-40 knots, the environment will be supportive of organized clusters of severe thunderstorms.
Initiation remains a bit uncertain with some members of the HRRR initiating storms shortly after 12pm, while others holding off as late as 4pm. latest 06z guidance is trending towards a faster solution with height falls from the shortwave arriving earlier in afternoon. Storms likely initiate off the high terrain in Western MA/CT and southern VT/NH then move ESE through the afternoon. Storms should quickly weaken as the approach eastern MA and RI as they run into a more stable environment with less instability and shear. The severe threat at this time looks highest north and west of the I-95 corridor as highlighted by the SPC slight risk.

Severe threats:

The primary severe threat will be strong to damaging winds with steep low level lapse rates, DCAPE values near 700 J/kg, and linear storm mode promoting straight line winds. The hail threat has increased since yesterday due to models steepening mid level lapse rates to 6-7 C/km. The freezing level still remains above 10kft which should help to melt most hail before reaching the surface. The tornado threat remains very low at this time with 0-3km SRH around 100 m/s and the Sig Tor parameter well less then 1.0. Storm mode also appears to favor linear clusters with upscale growth. Not completely out of the question that a discreet supercell could form at initiation before merging with other cells into line segments or clusters.

Heavy Rain Threat:

Although the storms will be progressive with little to no training expected, PWATS will be increasing into the 1.5-1.6 inches. CAPE profiles have become more fat and supportive of hail over the last 24 hours due to steepening mid level lapse rates. Warm cloud depths have also decreased to 8000ft. Despite these less favorable changes in the environmental parameters, the HRRR 3hr PMM does still highlights a small area in western MA and CT with 10% probs for greater then 3 inches of rain in 3 hours. This could lead to areas of street and poor drainage flooding along with isolated instances of flash flooding.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Tonight

Thunderstorms quickly weaken into showers as they move east into less favorable environment and lose support from daytime heating.
The shortwave axis crosses through the region overnight which will prolong the rain for eastern MA before tapering off by morning. Overnight lows stay on the warm side in the low 60s with overcast skies and rain.

Tomorrow

Shortwave moves offshore with rising heights and high pressure beginning to build in for the weekend. There may be some lingering light showers in the morning in eastern MA, otherwise mainly dry conditions with clearing skies in the afternoon.
Winds turn northerly advecting in cooler air for Saturday with highs only in the mid to upper 70s. Humidity will also be noticeably lower with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and even the 40s across the western interior.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Points...

* Dry/cool Sat night followed by a beautiful Sunday with low humidity * Warmup begins on Mon with excessive heat & humidity Tue through Fri * Heat & Humidity Peak in the Wed through Fri time frame * Near Record Highs possible...Heat Indices between 95 & 104 at times

Details...

Saturday night and Sunday..

Large high pressure will build over southern New England Sat night into Sun. A relatively dry airmass in place for mid June standards...coupled with mainly clear skies/light winds will yield a good night of radiational cooling. Overnight lows should bottom out in the 40s across the outlying locations with 50s in the urban centers. Plenty of sunshine on Sunday will allow for a beautiful day along with low humidity. Highs will be well up into the 70s to perhaps near 80 in a few spots.

Next Week...

Confidence continues to grow in excessive heat and humidity next week. An anomalous upper level ridge will build northward into southern New England next week. A warming trend begins on Monday, but the significant heat/humidity potential looks to begin Tuesday and peak in the Wed through Fri time frame.

There has been a strong signal amongst all the model guidance for the last several days. The EPS/NAEFS situational awareness table indicates parameters outside the models climatology which is signal for the potential of a highly anomalous event...in this case heat & humidity. Near record high temperatures will be possible. There are fairly high probs of temps reaching well into the 90s for a couple days and perhaps flirting with 100 degrees in some spots. Afternoon heat indices in the 95 to 104 degree range are possible at times. It will remain quite muggy at night so that will be another concern.

Strong upper level ridging in place will promote mainly dry weather for much of next week
That being said
near record heat may trigger the risk of a few t-storms at times but given lack of synoptic scale forcing dry weather will dominate.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today: Moderate Confidence

VFR with gusty SW winds to start today. Still some uncertainty with how thunderstorms evolve today with some guidance showing activity developing by 16 to 17z over southern VT and NH and moving ESE. The highest confidence in thunderstorms is at the BDL, BAF, and ORH between 17-22z. Further east, still some uncertainty on how well thunderstorms will hold together for BED, BOS, and PVD between 18-23z. FMH, HYA, and ACK should only see rain showers but not out of the question for embedded thunder after 00z. The other issue is a potential second round of showers and t-storms in the 22z to 03z time frame...but will have to see how that unfolds.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

Lingering shortwave energy may bring showers and a few embedded t-storms well into the evening and overnight hours...especially across eastern MA. Low clouds and areas of fog may develop across parts of RI/SE MA.

Tomorrow:

VFR with northerly winds at 10-15 knots.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR with gusty SW winds to start today. Guidance has sped up timing of the thunderstorms now to 19z though 22z. Smaller risk for a second round of thunderstorms after 22z/23z...but this may be more showers with a bit of embedded thunder.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR to start today. Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon in the 17z-20z time frame. A second round of scattered showers & t-storms are possible this evening as well.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today:

Increasing SW winds gusting up to 25 knots. A cold front will sweep across the waters this evening. Thunderstorms will form along this cold front inland this afternoon and weaken as they approach the waters. A couple storms could still reach the waters and bring strong wind gusts and lightning near the coastal waters this evening. Seas 2-4 feet.

Tonight:

Steady light to moderate rain with embedded thunder possible.
Winds shift WNW and decrease to 5-10 knots overnight. Seas 2-3 feet.

Tomorrow:

Rain tapers off in the morning with clearing conditions in the afternoon. Winds turn north and gust 15 to 20mph. Seas 2-4 feet.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

CLIMATE
Daily Record High Temperatures...

Tuesday, June 18th

BOS - 94F (1929)
BDL - 95F (1994)
PVD - 94F (1929)
ORH - 93F (1929)

Wednesday, June 19th

BOS - 96F (1923)
BDL - 95F (1995)
PVD - 94F (1923)
ORH - 93F (1923)

Thursday, June 20th

BOS - 98F (1953)
BDL - 97F (2012)
PVD - 95F (1941)
ORH - 93F (1953)

Last Day of 100F (or greater)

BOS - 100F (07/24/2022)
BDL - 100F (07/21/2019)
PVD - 100F (07/28/2020)
ORH - 102F (07/04/1911)

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230>237-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 6 mi51 min 80°F 29.83
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi41 minSW 3.9G5.8 69°F 65°F29.8763°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 25 mi107 minSSW 5.8G7.8 65°F 62°F2 ft29.88
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 42 mi51 minS 15G15 72°F 29.8260°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 44 mi66 minSSW 1.9 73°F 29.8669°F
44073 47 mi76 minS 9.7G12 65°F 60°F
SEIM1 47 mi51 min 73°F 60°F29.8669°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi51 minSSW 9.9G16 82°F 65°F29.88
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi71 min 62°F3 ft
PVDR1 49 mi51 minS 8G11 78°F 29.8867°F


Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: BOS
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Tide / Current for Chelsea St. Bridge, Chelsea River, Massachusetts
   
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Chelsea St. Bridge
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Fri -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     8.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:09 PM EDT     1.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:25 PM EDT     8.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chelsea St. Bridge, Chelsea River, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
2
1
am
2.8
2
am
4.1
3
am
5.7
4
am
7.4
5
am
8.6
6
am
9
7
am
8.4
8
am
7.1
9
am
5.5
10
am
3.7
11
am
2.2
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
1.8
2
pm
2.9
3
pm
4.4
4
pm
6.2
5
pm
7.9
6
pm
8.8
7
pm
8.8
8
pm
7.9
9
pm
6.6
10
pm
5
11
pm
3.3


Tide / Current for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
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Fri -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:05 AM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:29 PM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
0.2
1
am
0.7
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.9
4
am
0.7
5
am
0.2
6
am
-0.2
7
am
-0.5
8
am
-0.7
9
am
-0.9
10
am
-1
11
am
-0.8
12
pm
-0.1
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.9
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.1
7
pm
-0.3
8
pm
-0.6
9
pm
-0.8
10
pm
-0.9
11
pm
-0.9


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Boston, MA,




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