Saugus, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugus, MA


December 8, 2023 3:28 PM EST (20:28 UTC)
Sunrise 6:59AM   Sunset 4:12PM   Moonrise  3:17AM   Moonset 2:31PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 101 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Sat and Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A chance of showers.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 101 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres overspreads the waters through the rest of this week. A powerful low pres may approach the waters sometime Sun into Mon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugus, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 082025 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 325 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS

High pressure over New England Friday night drifts offshore Saturday, providing dry, tranquil weather to the region. A strong frontal system has the potential to bring a period of heavy rain, strong southerly winds to the entire region, with possible coastal flooding along the south coast. All of this occurring from late Sunday into Monday morning. A few snow showers across northwest Massachusetts are possible Monday afternoon and evening as the system departs. Otherwise turning drier Monday evening with a brief shot of colder air, but temperatures look to rebound back closer to seasonable levels Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

315 PM update...

Tonight...

* Dry & seasonably cold tonight * Low prob (10-20%) of patchy frost/black ice overnight

Deep layer ridge provides dry weather tonight. Surface ridge promotes light winds and with dew pts in the 20s to lower 30s, along with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions, some radiational cooling will allow min temps to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Mid 30s for the urban areas. Given these conditions, we derived overnight mins from the colder MOS guidance. These temps are seasonably cold for early Dec.

The only wrinkle to the forecast is later tonight, as the high drifts offshore, light S-SE flow develops and allows dew pts to slowly rise into the low 30s across CT/RI and eastern coastal MA.
Given recent nighttime lows have been in the teens and 20s, dew pts rising at or above freezing and streaming over subfreezing ground temps, may yield patchy frost/black ice on secondary roads, parking lots, sidewalks, etc. Not confident enough to issue a SPS, but something we will be watching this evening and overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

315 PM update...

Saturday...

* Mainly dry and milder Saturday

Warm front approaches from the southwest. Any morning sunshine will give way to mostly cloudy conditions by afternoon. Warm sector airmass bleeds into RI and southeast MA with dew pts into the mid 40s, and highs in the mid 50s. However, the true warm sector airmass holds off until Sunday. Not expecting any precip with the warm front Saturday, as model soundings indicate lots of mid level dry air, but can't rule out a few sprinkles especially across the interior.
Otherwise, it's a dry Saturday with above normal temps. SSE winds 5- 10 mph across the interior, 10-15 mph along the coast.

Saturday night...

* Mainly dry and milder * Areas of fog possible

Warm sector airmass advects northward with dew pts in the 40s across CT/RI and eastern MA. This combined with boundary layer cooling should yield areas of fog. Could have some patchy drizzle, but otherwise it's a mainly dry night. Lows in the low 40s, mid to upper 30s across interior CT, northwest RI into central-western MA. Light south winds, except 10-15 mph along the south coast and Islands.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Update: 4:10AM

* Quiet, mild, and dry through the first-half of Sunday. Afternoon highs could approach 60 degrees Sunday ahead of a robust weather system.

* Multi-hazardous system Sunday night through Monday bringing strong winds, soaking rains, coastal flooding concerns, in addition to dangerous marine conditions.

* Quieter and cooler Tuesday and Thursday.

Saturday Night and Sunday:

Generally dry, increasing cloud cover, and strengthening winds. The surface high to the south and mid-level ridge aloft shift east ahead of an approaching system. More on that in just a bit. During this update opt to modify POPs, trending a drier day on Sunday, mainly during the daylight hours. POPs/rain chances begin to increase from west to east during the early to mid afternoon. Out ahead of the storm WAA ushers mild temperatures into SNE. Temperatures overnight into Sunday morning range between the mid-30s across the interior and the mid-40s across the coastal plains. Sunday afternoon highs are between 55-60 degrees, a few spots in SE MA make a run towards the low-60s. South winds increase throughout the day, nothing overly strong, but more noticeable during the afternoon hours with winds 10 to 15 MPH, gusts 20 to 25 MPH.

Sunday night through Monday night:

Confidence continues to increase that a robust storm will impact SNE late Sunday night and through part of Monday, likely causing some headaches for Monday's morning commute. Model guidance continues to support a mid-level trough, somewhat negatively tilted, approaching SNE with a developing surface low in the vicinity of Chesapeake Bay based on global ensembles. For what it is worth, deterministic guidance would suggest the low would quickly deepen, as it traverses between the Mid-Atlantic to northern Maine/SE Quebec, dropping from 1003mb to 975mb in a 24-hour period. And when it comes to the LLJ, there really remains no changes, 925mb over RI and SE MA remain out of the south 70 to 80 knots. Further west/inland the 925mb winds are too from the south between 40 to 60 knots.

This storm is likely to bring multiple hazards to SNE, strong wind gusts, heavy rains with localized flooding concerns, and hazardous marine conditions which include possible coastal flooding. Let us break it down the details a bit more:

Strong Winds - Guidance remains in fair agreement a robust LLJ will cross SNE late night into Monday, generally 00z to 18z Monday. The jet remains the strongest over the waters, likely to bring the strongest of the winds to RI and eastern MA; including locations from Cape Ann to Cape Cod, and the adjacent islands. As mentioned above, the 925mb southerly winds over RI and SE MA are between 70 and 80 knots. While further west/inland the 925mb winds are 40 to 60 knots. It is still difficult to say how much of the wind will mix down to the surface due to an inversion below the LLJ. DESI mean wind gust across SNE suggests 40 to 50 MPH gusts, while the south coast of RI, SE MA, and Cape Ann are closer to 60 MPH. But there is the potential for some of the stronger winds to mix down during convective showers, more on that in a bit. Similar to last night, the ECMWF ensemble continues with 60 and 80 percent probabilities of gusts exceeding 50 knots for the south coast of RI, SE MA, and Cape Ann. Plus there are lower probabilities between 20 and 40 percent of gusts exceeding 64 knots across the outer Cape and Nantucket. At this point there are no wind headlines issued, but it is becoming more likely it will be needed Sunday night into Monday. It is worth noting after the surface low tracks north and away from SNE there will be CAA, allowing for less strong winds aloft to mix down easier to the surface, below advisory criteria between 25 and 35 MPH, still plenty of time to watch this.

Rain - The system will bring periods of heavy rainfall, PWATS surge to 1.5", potentially higher, which is 300 to 400 percent of normal for early December. Much of the global ensembles have agreement on totals between 1 and 2 inches, with the greatest totals west and lesser amounts east. And on the extreme, the GFS ensembles have up to a 20 percent probability of rainfall exceeding 4 inches.

WPC has kept SNE under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Flash flooding isn't an overall concern, but not out of the question. What is more likely is poor drainage flooding due to leaf litter clogging storm drains. Also, the MMEFS, ensemble river forecast, would suggest a few area rivers have a 30 percent probability of reaching minor flooding in western MA/CT. Something we will continue to keep an eye on.

Lastly, we can not rule out some thunder during the overnight as the possibility is there for a fine line to develop, as this system has more spring-like qualities. We will need to watch the CAMS and additional high-res model guidance as we get closer to the event.
Currently NAM3KM only goes out to 12z Sunday. In the event of thunderstorm development it would become easier to mix those strong winds aloft from the LLJ down to the surface.

Marine and Coastal - Because of the growing confidence of strong gusts over area waters, opt to issue a Gale Watch in collaboration with neighboring WFO. In addition to potential gale force winds there are increasing seas and dangerous surf. Seas off shore build to a height of 12 to 15 feet, while closer to the shore line, waves could be as high as 8 to 12 feet! It is not out of the realm of possibilities there could be coastal erosion along south facing beaches.

It is also a possibility there could be coastal flooding, primarily for the coastal communities of southern RI and south facing shores of southeast MA. This would likely occur during the high tide Monday morning, roughly around 5-7 AM. High tide at Fox Point, RI is 6:20AM at 4.72 feet, coupled with a potential surge of 2.0 feet, that would bring this area to action stage, potentially minor flooding. Stevens Institute shows the 50th percentile just below minor flooding, while the 95th percentile would crest below moderate flood level, which is 9.0 feet. There still remains plenty of uncertainty as the max surge would need to coincide with the high tide. Likely why there is a wide spread amongst the ensemble members, the 5th percentile would keep water levels well below action stage. Plenty of time to watch over the coming days.

Monday Night - System moves to the northeast, CAA ushers cooler and drier air, with the lingering moisture a few snow showers are likely across NW MA, could lead to minor accumulations. Temperatures drop into the low and middle-20s, breezy WNW winds gusting to 25-35 MPH.

Tuesday through Thursday: A more quiet week ahead with surface high pressure building across the center of the nation, with mid-level ridging to our west comes later in the week. No significant weather during this period, likely a dry stretch too. Highs are in the upper- 30s and low-40s. Overnight lows mid-20s to low-30s.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update...

Thru 00z...VFR cloud bases except some MVFR cigs over RI. Not much change thru 00z. Light and variable winds becoming S-SE.
Dry weather prevails.

After 00z...VFR cloud bases, dry weather and winds SSW.

Saturday...VFR cloud bases, dry weather, south winds 5-10 kt inland, 10-15 kt along the coast.

Saturday night...VFR cloud bases and dry weather. However, trending MVFR in areas of fog and a risk of showers toward 12z Sun across western MA/CT. South winds 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Quiet weather through Saturday evening.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Quiet weather through Saturday evening.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 55 kt. RA, patchy BR, isolated TSRA.

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Monday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 45 kt.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

315 PM update...

High Confidence through Saturday night.

Tonight...light & variable winds this evening becoming S-SE and light overnight. Dry weather and good vsby as high pressure drifts just offshore.

Saturday...high pressure drifts farther offshore with a weak warm front moving across New England. Dry weather and good vsby prevail, along with light S-SE winds.

Saturday night...warm front north of the MA/RI waters, with winds shifting from SSE to SSW overnight. This likely leads to areas of fog with reduced vsby. Mainly dry but can't rule out patchy drizzle at times.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt.
Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for MAZ022>024.
RI...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for RIZ008.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ230-236.
Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 6 mi58 min 43°F 30.17
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi48 min S 1.9G3.9 40°F 49°F30.1928°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 25 mi144 min NNW 3.9G5.8 38°F 46°F2 ft30.20
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 42 mi88 min SSE 1G1.9 38°F 30.1721°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 44 mi103 min W 1 38°F 30.1823°F
SEIM1 47 mi58 min 41°F 42°F30.2028°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi58 min SE 4.1G5.1 42°F 46°F30.19
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi48 min NW 5.8G7.8 39°F 49°F30.2029°F
PVDR1 49 mi58 min S 6G7 43°F 30.2034°F

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Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBOS GENERAL EDWARD LAWRENCE LOGAN INTL,MA 6 sm34 minSE 0510 smMostly Cloudy39°F28°F65%30.19
KBVY BEVERLY RGNL,MA 11 sm35 mincalm10 smClear41°F27°F56%30.18
KBED LAURENCE G HANSCOM FLD,MA 14 sm37 mincalm10 smClear43°F27°F52%30.17
KOWD NORWOOD MEMORIAL,MA 19 sm35 minESE 0310 smClear45°F27°F49%30.18
KLWM LAWRENCE MUNI,MA 20 sm34 mincalm10 smClear43°F27°F52%30.20

Wind History from BOS
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Chelsea St. Bridge, Chelsea River, Massachusetts
   
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Chelsea St. Bridge
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Fri -- 01:10 AM EST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM EST     9.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:31 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:44 PM EST     1.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:50 PM EST     8.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chelsea St. Bridge, Chelsea River, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
2.3
1
am
1.5
2
am
1.9
3
am
3.1
4
am
4.6
5
am
6.5
6
am
8.2
7
am
9.2
8
am
9.2
9
am
8.2
10
am
6.7
11
am
4.9
12
pm
3
1
pm
1.7
2
pm
1.4
3
pm
2.1
4
pm
3.4
5
pm
5.1
6
pm
7
7
pm
8.3
8
pm
8.7
9
pm
8.1
10
pm
6.8
11
pm
5.2



Tide / Current for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:28 AM EST     1.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:30 AM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:31 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:47 PM EST     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-0.8
1
am
-0.1
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.9
4
am
1
5
am
1
6
am
0.6
7
am
0.1
8
am
-0.4
9
am
-0.7
10
am
-0.9
11
am
-1.1
12
pm
-1.1
1
pm
-0.6
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
0.9
5
pm
1
6
pm
0.8
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
-0.2
9
pm
-0.6
10
pm
-0.8
11
pm
-1




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Boston, MA,



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