NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KDVN 281738 AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1138 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

18z AVIATION UPDATE

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

1. Very cold start this morning, with single digit temps and wind chills below zero.

2. Quiet and dry today, with similar highs to yesterday.

Discussion:

Northwest flow aloft with a cold air mass by November standards was seen early this AM across the CWA. Our 00z DVN sounding had a minus 13.7C 850mb temperature, which is the 28th coldest value at that level in November for our period of record dating back to February 1995! GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery showed another deck of stratus across southwest WI, northeast IA, and northern IL. Recent trends show the western edge of the clouds starting to diminish and is expected to continue over the next 1-3 hours per RAP layer RH fields. Areas underneath the clouds have stayed 'warmer' overnight whereas elsewhere, temperatures have crashed well below most model guidance with readings already in the single digits in the Wapsipinicon river valley as of 1 am.
Another factor contributing to these cold temps is our recent snowfall providing negative feedback, which most models are not handling well. Thankfully, winds have remained above 5 mph or even colder readings would be possible. Widespread lows in the single digits will be seen this morning, which hasn't been seen since the middle of March. Wind chills will drop below zero this morning area wide, with a few sites in the lower teens below zero for an hour or two not out of the question. Be sure to bundle up before heading out the door today.

After a cold start, temperatures will rebound into the middle 20s to lower 30s by the afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Some mid and high level clouds may make their way across the CWA late this afternoon and evening with winds turning southerly. Another night of monitoring cloud trends will be needed as some models (00z HRRR and RAP) are hinting at more low clouds developing in/near our CWA that could impact temps. In any case, warmer readings are forecast overnight with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

1. Warming trend and dry conditions remain on track through the rest of the work week.

2. Storm system likely to miss most of the area Thursday night through Friday, with the southeast third having the best chances (20-40%) of light QPF.

3. Above normal temperatures return next week

Discussion:

A transition from northwest to a semi-zonal flow pattern will bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions through at least Thursday. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s is forecast. This should melt some if not all of the snow in our area as dewpoints rise into the lower 30s south of Highway 20, especially on Thursday.

Attention then turns to a storm system ejecting out of the southwest CONUS on Thursday. Guidance has come into better agreement with this system moving over the southern Plains as an open wave and into the Ohio river valley by Friday. The associated surface low and precipitation shield will remain south over MO and southern IL but may still clip our far southern counties. A dprog/dt of the NBM QPF has shown a lowering trend in amounts and IF the system clips the south, amounts will be light and less than a tenth of an inch. While we will be on the cold side of the system, thermal profiles suggest only a brief rain/snow mix would be possible early Friday. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to seasonable values Friday and Saturday to start the month of December. Two more waves will be right on the heels of this Friday system and will bring more widespread precipitation chances late in the weekend and into next week. Timing differences are seen in both the deterministic and ensemble data with these systems which should be ironed out as we get closer.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

As a sfc ridge passes along and east of the area, the light winds will become southwesterly and increase to around 10 KTs this evening and into the overnight. A VFR TAF cycle with just some passing mid and high level clouds(AC/CI) at times. A southwesterly LLJ at around 2K FT AGL increasing to 35-40 KTs will induce some LLVL wind shear at most sites from mid evening through 2-4 AM CST or so Wed morning from west-to-east.

CLIMATE
Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is favoring above normal temperatures for the Dec 5th to Dec 11th timeframe for all of the outlook area. For Moline, IL there is a very high probability (85%) of near or above normal temperatures for this period. For reference, normal highs are in the upper 30s and normal lows are in the lower 20s.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Quad Cities, IA,