Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 12:18 AM CDT (05:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:03PMMoonset 10:56AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Fxus63 kdvn 210250
afddvn
area forecast discussion
national weather service quad cities ia il
950 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Update
Issued at 949 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
cams have been consistent with a slower arrival of storms tonight
into tomorrow. Satellite imagery and lack of convection supports
this notion. As such, have pushed pops back to after 12z across
the sw. The best chance for precip looks to be from 12z through
18z or so Wednesday.

Synopsis
Issued at 320 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
an upper level shortwave and attendant MCS was seen on satellite
water vapor imagery and radar mosaic over indiana and ohio early
this afternoon. At the surface, an outflow boundary trailed from
this complex westward across northern mo, where scattered showers
and thunderstorms continued to linger. The remnant MCV was over
northern il with another weak boundary trailing westward into east
central ia, where skies were clearing in the shortwave
subsidence. Further north a separate MCS that tracked southward
across mn this morning had since dissipated, leaving yet another
outflow boundary over northeast ia. Temperatures ranged from the
upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s. The main synoptic cool front across wi, mn into eastern ne
marked the leading edge of much drier air with dewpoints in the
50s and 60s. This boundary is expected to advance southeast
overnight bringing cooler, drier weather for at least the north
Wednesday, while showers and thunderstorms may linger through much
of the day across the south.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 320 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
the main challenge for tonight is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms developing along the gradient of the very high
mucape axis in place over the missouri river valley. In the near
term, shortwave subsidence and pressure rises over the local area
looks to win out over recovering low level moisture instability
along weak boundaries to suppress new convection over the forecast
area this afternoon and evening.

Tonight, another complex of storms will likely form along the cape
gradient and low level jet focused into southeast NE into SW ia
late. This activity may spread eastward, in a weakening form,
reaching the highway 34 corridor well after midnight. Unlike last
night, the potential for severe weather looks much less favorable.

Over the rest of the area, continued weak upper level subsidence
above lingering boundaries and abundant low level moisture from
recent rain may lead to at least patchy fog, which was included
over the north and central portions of the forecast area. High
dewpoints will limit lows to the upper 60s north to lower 70s
south.

Tuesday, one or more shortwaves and possible mcvs in the zonal
flow aloft are expected to track eastward over the area,
interacting with the main synoptic front expected to reorganize
from northeast ks across northern mo into central il. This may
lead to at least scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
across northern mo, southern ia into west central il through the
day and high chance pops are kept in place. Temperatures will only
reach the mid to upper 70s in the north, where drier air will
begin to advect in from the north during the day, to the lower 80s
in the south.

Long term (Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
issued at 320 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
Wednesday night and Thursday... General agreement in several 12z
model run solutions that broad upper level troffiness will
adjust dig down acrs the upper ms rvr valley grt lks, while
undercutting sfc ridging slides down acrs these same regions. The
entire CWA will look to find itself in north to northeast boundary
layer flow north of a llvl west-to-east oriented instability
gradient- frontal system laying out from the south central plains,
over to the oh rvr valley. Embedded passing short waves and
isentropic lift processes will look to keep elevated areas of
showers moving acrs the southern third or so of the CWA Wed night.

Still enough mid layer mucapes for some embedded thunder, but mid
level lapse rates look marginal. These thunder supporting parameters
really wane from midnight on into early Thu morning, and it may
transition to mainly stratiform rain.

Still enough low to mid level saturation to support general rainfall
amounts of a quarter to half inch acrs the southern third of the cwa
by Thu morning, but the far south which may get in on multiple
passing elevated storms could push 0.75 to around an inch. Where
clouds thin out to the north, cool bl advection will lead to lows
well down in the 50s, while the south is held up in the low to mid
60s. May have to keep at least patchy fog in mind in the north by
early Thu morning, but confidence too low to add mention now. Some
overrunning showers may linger through Thu morning, then expect a
southward shunt of the precip-generating processes, and more cloud
thinning from north-to-south into Thu evening. High temps may be
milder over the north half of the CWA in areas sooner to get less
filtered insolation. Mainly dry and cool again with many 50s thu
night Fri morning.

Friday through Sunday... Friday may be an ideal day for this time of
year if western grt lks ridging maintains it's grip with northeast
boundary layer(bl) flow, lower humidity and temps in the 70s to low
80s acrs much of the area. Clear skies would lead to another below
normal temp night Friday night into Sat morning. Will through out
the outlier 12z NAM which spirals a cut-off low up toward the
southern CWA and produces heavy def zone rains along and south of
i80 on Friday. Then the latest suite of medium range models maintain
a partial blocking pattern acrs the north central to northeastern
conus for a continued mainly dry fcst with some temp moderation for
much of the weekend. When that pattern starts to break down by wave
energy from the west, along with moisture return flow is when precip
chances will look to increase again which may be in the form of a
mcs again in or near the local area by Sunday night.

Monday and next Tuesday... Broad upper level troffiness to flattened
flow westerlies interacting with moisture return acrs the upper
midwest may lead to a more unsettled period early to mid next week,
with possible MCS or storm clusters moving acrs the region
especially at night, depending on where the best llvl thermal
gradient storm track lays out. ..12..

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 633 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
vfr expected to last at most TAF sites for the next few hours
before fog and low clouds move into the area. Pretty high
confidence on at least MVFR restrictions and confidence increasing
that we see ifr restrictions. Late tonight into tomorrow, showers
and storms are possible again, however timing of said storms is
uncertain, so have left out of current TAF issuance.

Dvn watches warnings advisories
Ia... None.

Il... None.

Mo... None.

Update... Gibbs
synopsis... Sheets
short term... Sheets
long term... 12
aviation... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Platteville Municipal Airport, WI27 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair70°F69°F99%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVB

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Last 24hrE3NE3NE3N3E8E11NE6CalmSW6S11N17
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1 day agoCalmN3N4N5N4N4N4NE3E4E7E5SE6SE4CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.