Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:27PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 4:02 PM CST (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 102039 AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 239 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 237 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

It has shaped up to be a pleasant winter-like Fall day across the region thus far. Surface analysis showed high pressure centered from eastern South Dakota to northern kansas, and was slowly building south and east with time. A layer of low-level stratus developed over much of southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri ahead of it, with several reports of light flurries underneath. Temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from 16 in Dubuque, to 30 in Keokuk.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

1) Light snow likely late tonight and Wednesday morning, general snow accumulations under one inch, with some localized amounts around or slightly above one inch possible.

2) Cold temperatures continue through Wednesday

Will be a quiet evening for most of us underneath a mix of mostly clear across northwest Illinois, to cloudy skies further west. A few flurries will continue to be possible through the evening, but should not lead to any impacts.

Later tonight, all guidance is in good agreement of a weak clipper traversing across the area underneath a 500 hPa shortwave. Ahead of it, low-level warm air and theta-e advection will work with a little moisture in the atmosphere to produce some light snow across much of the area. Thankfully, moisture levels are not relatively high with this system compared to most clippers, so general accumulations will remain below one inch for most. However, there may be some localized amounts around or slightly above one inch west of the Mississippi where better forcing will be located with the system. As the clipper progresses east, snow should weaken and taper off to flurries by the late morning.

Sunshine will follow for Wednesday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise a little warmer than today. Areas that maintain their snow accumulations may see slightly cooler highs than forecast. This will be the last day of widespread highs in the teens and 20s until next week as warmer temperatures return for the beginning of the long term period.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

The overall hemispheric pattern supports a much more active weather pattern across the Midwest into the foreseeable future. Additionally, the hemispheric wave pattern will be in a state of change which will result in lower than normal predictability and continuity of the models.

Wednesday night through Thursday night Assessment . low to medium confidence on precipitation occurring

Dry conditions will be seen Wednesday night as a weak storm system approaches the area. Temperatures will bottom out Wednesday evening and then slowly rise the rest of the night as clouds move into the area.

On Thursday the better forcing for precipitation is from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. With the track of the low being generally north of the area the potential for precipitation is in question.

A majority of the area will remain dry on Thursday with only passing clouds and a shift in the wind direction. If precipitation occurs on Thursday, the highway 20 corridor would be favored with a southern extent possibly down to a Vinton, IA to Savanna, IL line.

Precipitation looks to be mainly in the form of flurries/sprinkles that may allow the pavement and elevated surfaces to get damp.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Thursday night as a weak high quickly moves through the Midwest. Attention then turns to the next storm system.

Friday on .

Friday through Saturday night Assessment . high confidence on another arctic front. Medium confidence on precipitation and low confidence on precipitation timing.

Friday morning will be dry across the area as the next storm system approaches. Friday afternoon the model consensus has slight chance pops generally west of a Freeport, IL to Kirksville, MO line for rain or a rain/snow mix.

Dprog/dt of the models shows a slowing trend in regards to the arrival of the precipitation Friday. Additionally there has been a downward trend on available moisture to produce precipitation.

Thus there is a very real possibility that dry conditions may be seen during the daylight hours of Friday with precipitation holding off until Friday night.

Although the next arctic front is not as strong as the last one, the forcing associated with it would provide the best chances of precipitation late Friday night through Saturday with flurries potentially lingering into Saturday evening. If the precipitation forms along the arctic front, it may form as a narrow band of snow that could produce a quick half inch of accumulation.

Right now the model consensus has chance pops Friday night and Saturday with slight chance pops Saturday evening.

Sunday through Monday night Assessment . low confidence

The model consensus has dry conditions on Sunday with another storm system moving through the area Sunday night through Monday night.

However given that the hemispheric wave pattern is undergoing a change, model predictability and timing of this system will be lower than normal.

The GFS keeps the area dry through Sunday night and brings the system through Monday and Monday night. The ECMWF side-swipes the southern half of the area Monday afternoon/evening while the CMC global brings the system through late Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

The model consensus is biased toward the CMC global and GFS solutions and gives slight chance to chance pops from Sunday night through Monday night with precipitation being in the form of snow.

Tuesday Assessment . medium confidence

The model consensus has dry conditions for the area on Tuesday as yet another high pressure moves through the Midwest.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

VFR condtions to prevail through midnight with northwest winds around 10 kts. Early Wednesday morning, a weak clipper will pass across the region, bringing a period of light snow and some reduced visibility. While most will remain VFR, there is higher confidence that KCID will see reduced, but higher-end MVFR visibility as the snow passes. This will exit the region by 11/14z, with VFR prevailing for the remainder of the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IA . NONE. IL . NONE. MO . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Speck SHORT TERM . Speck LONG TERM . 08 AVIATION . Speck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Platteville Municipal Airport, WI27 mi68 minW 12 G 1610.00 miFair17°F6°F61%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVB

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.