Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Apple River, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:30PM Sunday April 5, 2020 3:02 PM CDT (20:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 4:37AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apple River, IL
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location: 42.44, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 051749 AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

. 18z AVIATION UPDATE .

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

At 3 am, a large patch of mid level cloud cover was holding temperatures in the lower 40s over the central and southern half of the forecast area. Further north, temperatures were in the lower to mid 30s over northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois, where cloud cover was less prevalent. This cloud cover was associated with mid level moisture and weak lift ahead of a weak shortwave moving into northwest MO and southwest IA. At the surface, high pressure centered over Lake Superior was providing a cool, dry airmass over the region.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Temperatures are the primary challenge as the region remains dry and under the influence of the departing high pressure center over the Great Lakes. A period of mid level subsidence in the zonal mid level flow following the shortwave passing through early this morning should lead to clearing skies and plenty of sunshine from mid morning through afternoon. This supports high temperatures from the upper 50s north to around 60 central and south. This would be several degrees warmer than yesterday's highs in most locations as similar daytime mixing taps into slighly warmer temperatures aloft.

Tonight, warm air advection and moisture return aloft will lead to thickening cloud cover from southwest to northeast. Will thus keep lows in a range from the mid 30s over northwest Illinois, where cloud cover will be thinnest, to the lower 40s over much of eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri. The developing elevated thetae advection and steep mid level lapse rates may support elevated convection, especially over eastern Iowa and northeast MO late, as suggested by a few convective allowing high res models. However, will maintain a dry forecast for now as the better support for showers will be west and southwest through the night, closer to the developing low level jet and better moisture return in the plains.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Forecast focus in the long term remains on precipitation chances Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, and also Tuesday evening. Cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions expected late in the week.

Monday-Monday night . increasing clouds and low level moisture will be seen as return flow commences over the CWA. A warm front will lift north through the day out of Missouri and may trigger some showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Latest 00z CAMS suggest most activity to occur after 00z Tuesday, with the increasing 850mb theta-e gradient as shown by the 00z NAM/GFS/ECMWF. Steep mid level lapse rates and some marginal MUCAPE values may allow for small hail and occasional lightning. Shear values are low and thus do not expect and severe storms. Better lift will be over the central and northeast portions of the forecast area and points east Monday night. More organized storms will be found just east of the area after 06z Tuesday, where better upper jet support will be located. Model QPF is rather light, with rain amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch. Some localized higher amounts will be possible for areas that see a thunderstorm.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . warm and humid conditions are still expected, as a warm front lifts further north into northeast IA and southern WI. Widespread highs in the middle to upper 70s, with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s will be seen. A cold front is progged to move through during the evening and will provide another chance of storms for the area. A rather strong cap will be in place until an upper level speed max moves through the region. It is still uncertain whether convection will occur along the weak cold front in our CWA, but if it does some strong to severe storms may be possible. The latest SPC Day 3 outlook has portions of the area in a marginal risk for severe storms.

Wednesday . a weak surface low will track across Iowa, bringing another chance of showers to the region. Any rain that falls will be light. It will also be less humid on Wednesday as opposed to Tuesday, with dewpoints only in the 40s. Highs will top out in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday-Saturday . latest 00z models have come in a little colder for Thursday and Friday. The 00z GFS brings in the colder Canadian air a little faster than the 00z ECMWF, but is a little warmer. Model 850mb temps will drop into the -3C to -8C range, which will result in highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s and lows in the lower 30s. This is near to slightly below normal for early April. Cloud cover will be key as to how low morning temperatures will fall. Morning low temperatures around freezing may cause damage to sensitive plants and new plant growth outside late next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

With just some passing mid and high level clouds tonight, mainly VFR conditions for bulk of TAF cycle until mid monday morning as CIGs lower to MVFR levels and a chance for some high based showers developing. Some showers may get into the VCNTY of CID and DBQ just before dawn. Will not mention them in the TAFs however, with timing and coverage uncertainty. Southeast sfc winds of 5-10 KTs this afternoon may decrease and back slightly overnight, before going south to southeast and increasing again by mid Monday morning . 12..

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Mississippi River:

Rises are currently underway from LD11 down through Muscatine, IA. The river is near steady from LD17 down through LD18 with slow falls from Burlington, IA south to Gregory Landing, MO.

Crest forecasts have changed plus/minus 0.1 to 0.2 feet over the past 24 hours with LD17 and BRL showing no change. The current crest forecasts are longer in duration and in some cases are occurring a little earlier.

At this time crests in the minor to moderate flood category look to occur in the April 8-15 time frame.

Discussion:

There will be a few chances for rain through mid-week but rainfall amounts currently look to be light and should not affect river levels.

There is a weak signal suggesting the potential for above normal rainfall in the April 10-15 time frame but this rain is not accounted for in the current river forecasts.

After April 15 there is a signal suggesting the potential for below normal rainfall well into the third full week of April.

CLIMATE. ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors below normal temperatures for the middle of April. Below freezing temperatues will be possible, potentially causing harm to sensitive plants and vegetation outside. Individuals with sensitive plants outside should pay close attention to future forecasts. Cold temperatures may also extend into the rest of April, as the Week 3-4 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also shows below normal temperatures favored.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IA . NONE. IL . NONE. MO . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Sheets SHORT TERM . Sheets LONG TERM . Gross AVIATION . 12 HYDROLOGY . 08 CLIMATE . Gross


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Platteville Municipal Airport, WI27 mi67 minSW 610.00 miFair55°F34°F46%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVB

Wind History from PVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NW7NE6N4N4CalmN3N4N4N3N4N4N4NE5NE5E6E8E9E9E9SE6E7E5E5
1 day agoW13W12
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2 days agoSE13--SE12SE10--SE10SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Quad Cities, IA/IL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Quad Cities, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.