Apple River, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apple River, IL

June 13, 2024 4:09 PM CDT (21:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 11:24 AM   Moonset 12:04 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024


- Well above normal temperatures next week will bring hot and humid conditions to the area. Heat indices will be in the 95 to 100 range.

- An active weather pattern will develop across the Midwest with organized storms running around the edge of the heat dome.

Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

18z DVN sounding still shows a small cap inhibiting convection but this will erode quickly with convection initiation occurring between 3 and 6 PM.

Of interest is the PWAT of 1.50 in the sounding. This is essentially at the 90% percentile in climatology. Thus storms that develop will be very efficient in generating high rainfall rates. Additionally, precip loading of downdrafts raises the specter of wet microbursts.

Thus through 6 PM very rapid development of storms will occur along or just ahead of the front from southern Iowa to east northeast of the QC metro area.

Initially, the primary risk will be the potential for hail that is at least golfball size. Precipitation loading in the storm downdrafts suggests the potential for wet microbursts with wind gusts over 75 mph.

Very short term models have more cloud cover in them than what is being observed by satellite but their overall trend points to storms growing upscale into a broken line across southeast Iowa into west central Illinois by early evening. Once this occurs, storm interactions raises the possibility of meso vortices developing and the potential for brief spin up tornadoes.

The overall severe risk should be done by 10-11 PM with the decaying convection exiting the area by 2 AM. The very late night hours will be dry with dropping humidity levels.

On Friday, slightly cooler but much less humid conditions will be seen across the area. Temperatures will still average above normal.

Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Friday night Assessment...high confidence

Quiet conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure quickly moves across the Midwest.

Saturday through Thursday Assessment...high confidence on hot and humid conditions. Low confidence on rain chances.

While there is a near daily risk of rain, much of the area has a high probability of remaining dry.

A prolonged period of hot and humid conditions will build into the Midwest. Peak daytime heat index values of 95 to 100 are expected with overnight head index values only dropping into the mid 70s.

The higher uncertainty is where will the organized thunderstorm track develop. If it develops north of the area, dry conditions will be seen. If it is over the area then periodic rounds of storms can be expected.

The global models vary on their respective solutions, deterministic and ensemble wise. From a thermodynamic perspective, the favorable temperature gradients at H85 and H7 (19-23 and 9-13 C respectively)
remain over or close to the area. Thus the prospects of seeing periodic organized thunderstorm complexes is reasonably good.

The one time period that appears to have a higher probability of remaining dry looks to be Monday night into Tuesday. No discernible upper level disturbances can be found in the flow aloft.

Otherwise, there is a small risk (20-30 percent) of thunderstorms Saturday through Monday for areas north of I-80.

Tuesday night through Thursday there is a weak signal of an upper level disturbance moving through in the flow aloft that may bring a risk of rain to the entire area. However, overall coverage during this time period will remain at 20 to 30 percent.

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Cold front runs from far southwest Wisconsin back into southwest Iowa. A warm layer aloft is preventing convection from initiating but rapid TSRA development is likely from southern Iowa into west central Illinois 20z/13 to 00z/14. Outside of TSRA VFR conditions will be seen with high density altitudes ahead of the cold front. IFR conditions are likely in TSRA with wind gusts over 40 knots. After 04z/14 conditions will improve back to VFR as storms exit the area and high pressure builds in.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSFY27 sm14 minN 0610 smMostly Cloudy88°F59°F38%29.86
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Quad Cities, IA,

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