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FXUS63 KDVN 010005 AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 605 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

KEY MESSAGES
1) Winter Weather Advisory in effect for counties along a line from Fairfield through the Quad Cities Area from Midnight Tonight to Noon Friday.

2) A storm system approaching our area today will bring a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain tonight/tomorrow. Light snow and ice accumulations are possible, especially during the Friday morning commute.

3) Beyond Friday, active pattern remains, with a few chances for light precipitation late this weekend and through next week.
Temperatures remain near to above normal through the extended.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

This Afternoon and Tomorrow...

Much of today was pleasant and dry, with temperatures in the mid- upper 40s. Through the day, we have seen an increase in clouds, with the exception of our far northwest. We are starting to see an increase in moisture, as LLVL southerly flow increases ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. This front is forecast to stall out over our area ahead of the approaching southerly wave. The boundary will slowly start to move through the remainder of the area tonight, which will be a focus for a corridor of heavier rain in our southeast. This wave approaching from the south will be the main concern for the forecast though, as this will bring wintry precipitation to the parts of area. There will be two phases to this system, which will bring along two different threats to the area. One thing to keep in mind is the temperature impact on this whole situation. Guidance is trending warmer, which can kill off much of the snow potential, making it an even narrower zone of snow. This would leave us with more rain and potential freezing rain early. Those south of Interstate 80 will see the highest QPF from this system, especially in the form of rain. We are currently forecasting between 0.50-1.00" of rain for these areas.

The first part to the system will bring the bulk of the precipitation to the area, which has been realized well amongst guidance. This will move into our south as rain around the midnight hour tonight, continuing it's northeastward push through the night and tomorrow. As the precipitation shield pushes north, we slowly enter an environment that is cool enough to introduce a wintry mix to nearly all snow in our north. This remains the forecast problem, as vertical profiles will be borderline when it comes to the precipitation type transition. As of right now, current short term guidance favors those along a line from Fairfield to the Quad Cities area to see the best chance for the rain, freezing rain, and snow mix. As we travel north from there, we transition to the best snow chances. The transition zone still has some uncertainty amongst guidance, but is favored around the Interstate 80 corridor. Those that see more snow can see anywhere between 1-2", with some locally higher amounts possible. Although, this will be a very tight gradient from rain to snow. Thus, much of the area will see rain or a mix, where surface temperatures should help keep things melted and wet. Although, in either case, this will impact the Friday morning commute for many. So, be mindful of the ice potential and take proper precautions when traveling in the AM. Currently, we are forecasting anywhere between 0.01-0.10" of ice. While this may not sound like much, don't let it deceive you. This will lead to travel impacts and very slick road conditions. Overall, guidance favors a 70-90% chance to see at least an inch of snow in the narrow band that we see, decreasing to a 20-30% chance for 3" or more.

Round two of the system will pass through late afternoon and through the evening tomorrow. This is still trending to be light snow/rain through the area, as moisture will be lacking. This can bring in light accumulations, generally less than a half inch of snow throughout. Although, this can lead to some slick conditions for the evening commute, as we will start to get some snow on wet pavement, possibly leading to some light ice development on surfaces.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Saturday and Sunday...

Upper level southwesterly flow kicks in this weekend, ahead of the next approaching wave. Much of Saturday will remain dry, as LLVL moisture advection kicks in after dark. Although, once the moisture increases, the column will begin to saturate as the next wave passes through the region. This system will be similar to the Friday system, but farther north. There remains some uncertainty on how far north the system tracks. Although, much of our area should remain on the rainy side of the system, with the best chance for mixed precipitation in our northwest. On the back side of the system, we may see a brief period of wintry mix over a larger spatial area, but confidence remain low on much, if any, impacts from this. Timing of the system will also be similar, with precipitation starting around or slightly before midnight Saturday night, exiting much of the area by mid-afternoon Sunday. Much of Sunday should remain mostly cloudy, with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. So, any wintry precipitation should easily melt as we warm through the day.

Next Week...

Next week, temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal.
For the most part, we will range from the mid 30s in the north to the lower 40s in our south. Our next chance for precipitation will be Monday night into Tuesday, where we see a weak disturbance pass through the north. Although, there remains much uncertainty on this, owing to moisture availability and overall track of the system.
As we get closer, we will update with more details. Although, currently, guidance favors our north being the best chance for precipitation, with much of the area remaining dry.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CST THU Nov 30 2023

Conditions will deteriorate late tonight into Friday AM as widespread precipitation moves in from the south and ceilings gradually lower to IFR. This system has been trending a little warmer so now anticipate mainly rain at BRL and MLI. Further north, there is still a chance for snow or a mix of rain/snow at CID and DBQ Friday AM. There is also uncertainty on how far north the precip pushes with CID and DBQ likely near the edge.
Visibilities will be reduced due to the precipitation, holding between 2 - 5 miles. There is a chance for another round of precipitation (rain/snow) later Friday afternoon into Friday evening, but left out of the TAFs with this update due to low confidence.

&

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for IAZ063>068-076>078-087-088.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for ILZ015.
MO...None.

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