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FXUS61 KALY 291127 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 627 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers and flurries north and west of Albany will diminish later this morning, with fair weather and chilly temperatures for this afternoon. High pressure off the East Coast will bring continued fair weather and slightly milder temperatures for Thursday. A fast moving storm system will bring rain for Friday, possibly mixed with snow across some higher terrain areas.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...As of 625 AM EST, diffuse and increasingly fragmented remnants of Lake Erie band now located across the Mohawk Valley extending east into northern portions of the Capital Region and Saratoga County. Some slightly heavier elements within the band were located across portions of the Mohawk Valley, however latest radar trends suggest weakening trends. In addition, BGM radar also depicting a northward shift with the band across central NYS.

Given lingering impacts for southern Herkimer County are decreasing and limited to areas closer to Cold Brook, we have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory slightly early. There could still be up to an additional inch across central portions of Herkimer County, closer to the Oneida Co border, while other areas receive only an additional coating to less than half inch, most of which will remain north of I-90.

Elsewhere, some additional coatings to less than one inch of snow accumulation will be possible through 9 AM across the central/eastern Mohawk Valley extending into Saratoga County and eventually portions of the upper Hudson Valley and SW VT.

Otherwise, have adjusted temps/dewpoints and winds according to latest obs.

[PREVIOUS 344 AM EST]...As of 344 AM EST, diffuse remnants of Lake Ontario snow band now progressing back toward the east/northeast, in response to low level backing winds. This band will move across the western Mohawk Valley over the next couple of hours, bringing a fresh coating to up to an inch of snow to portions of southern Herkimer County. Some flurries may even extend as far east as northern portions of the Capital Region and into the Saratoga region by daybreak, possibly producing some spotty coatings. Additional snow showers may also occur across the eastern Catskills.

After daybreak, the remnant band should shift into the SW Adirondacks, particularly northern Herkimer and western Hamilton Cos, with some extensions possibly as far east as the Lake George region where some lighter snow showers/flurries may occur. Across northern Herkimer County, there could be some 1-2 inch amounts this morning, especially near and north of Route 28.

Elsewhere, expect a mix of clouds and sun today, with mid level clouds increasing later this afternoon with the approach of a shortwave from the Great Lakes region. High temps mainly in the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s, though less breezy than Tuesday, with south/southwest winds 10-20 mph this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Aforementioned shortwave will traverse the region this evening, mainly with high and mid level clouds. There could be a few flurries across portions of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, especially if any lower clouds persist, allowing for some seeder/feeder processes to occur. Clearing later tonight, which may allow temps to drop off into the upper teens to lower/mid 20s. Some of the coldest min temps may be for areas south and east of Albany, across the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT and Berkshires, where skies may remain clear longest, along with lightest winds.

High pressure should bring generally fair weather for Thursday, outside of occasional cloud patches, especially across northern areas. Milder with highs reaching the lower/mid 40s for most valley areas, and 35-40 across higher terrain areas.

A weak cold front will approach the SW Adirondacks late Thursday night with increasing clouds, and perhaps some rain/snow showers toward daybreak Friday. Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies with clouds then increasing after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s, coldest for areas across the Lake George/SE Adirondacks into southern VT.

Southern stream upper level impulse will approach from the southwest Friday, though will be shearing out. Increasing isentropic lift ahead of this system will allow rain to overspread the region from west to east later Friday morning and become widespread in the afternoon. Forecast thermal profiles suggest mainly rain across the region, although some snow could occur for elevations above 1800 feet across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. Should rain arrive quicker, slightly colder boundary layer temps could allow for a bit more snow or a wintry mix to occur across a larger area of higher elevations. Highs mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Precipitation may linger into Friday evening, especially across the southern Adirondacks/southern VT and into western New England. Gradual cooling of Sfc-H925 layer could allow for some precipitation to mix with and/or change to snow before ending, with some minor accumulations possible, mainly for higher elevations north of I-90. Lows Friday night in the lower/mid 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Several fast moving storm systems are expected to impact the region during the long term period. There is rather low confidence of the exact timing and track of these systems due to the short wavelength between systems, but most models/ensembles do suggest a few opportunities for precip through the period. Model guidance is also fairly consistent in suggesting that p-type will be mainly rain for valley areas, with rain/snow for the high terrain, as the boundary layer will be just warm enough for liquid precip and there won't be a big push of cold air into the region thanks to the storm systems probably staying on the weaker side.

As of right now, will go with chance POPs for Sat through Tuesday due to the uncertainty regarding the exact timing of each system.
The first system looks to impact the region at some point with light precip on Saturday or Sat night and the next system will be somewhere around Sunday into Monday. Some lingering showers will the upper level trough will be around Tuesday and it could even continue into Wednesday. As mentioned, p-type looks rain for valley areas, but some light snow accumulation can't be ruled out for the Adirondacks or southern Greens, especially with the second system, which looks to have more QPF.

Daytime temps will generally be in the low to middle 40s for valley areas (mid to upper 30s in the high terrain). Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s in the Adirondacks to the mid 30s in valley areas, although exact temps will ultimately depend on the timing of the storm systems.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Lake effect snow showers are still impacting the region this morning. A broken band of light snow showers is currently lifting northward across the area. While the steadiest activity is further west closer to the lakeshore of Lake Ontario, a few brief snow showers or flurries may come close to KALB and KGFL over the next few hours. At this time, expectation is for flying conditions to remain VFR, with any flurries very light and having limited impact on visibility. Any lake effect should be north/west of the region by the mid to late morning hours. Flying conditions should be VFR for all sites today with just sct cigs around 4-6 kft for KALB/KGFL/KPSF and just some spotty mid level clouds near KPOU.
Westerly winds will continue to be around 10 kts for

For this evening into tonight, it will remain dry at all sites with VFR conditions. Some bkn cigs around 4-8 kft will move through the area for the first part of the overnight, but no precip is expected.
Winds will switch to the south to southwest at 7 kts or less for all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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