Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:37 AM   Moonset 12:04 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 012013 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 413 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Most areas have seen sunshine as of this afternoon with clouds continuing to decrease throughout the region. Outside of some light showers possible north and east of Albany tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact, precipitation chances don't increase again until Saturday afternoon into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Visible satellite shows primarily partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies across the region this afternoon as dry air is ushered in with high pressure building to the south and west. A low pressure system has settled just north of Michigan this afternoon, extending an associated warm/borderline stationary boundary south and east through western New York and into the northern Mid-Atlantic.

The aforementioned boundary will continue to lift north and east through the region tonight as a true warm front as its parent low tracks through southern Canada and a potent shortwave rotates about its southern periphery. With the track of the low remaining displaced well to our north, the shortwave looks to cross the region north of Albany. As such, the divergent, right exit region of a jet max within the flow of the disturbance will intersect portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Upper-Hudson Valley, possibly leading to some scattered showers in these areas. Elsewhere, dry conditions will remain steady.

Clouds are anticipated to increase across much of the area tonight in response to the passage of the disturbance, so temperatures will fair on the mild side with primarily 50s and some low 40s in higher terrain regions.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upon the passage of the warm front and upper shortwave by tomorrow morning, the parent low will be slow to move away from our overhead, yielding some clouds lingering throughout the day tomorrow, especially for western New England. A weak cold front will swing through the region tomorrow afternoon as the low drifts south and east, but a swift reinforcement of mid-level dry air behind it will ensure another primarily dry day outside of some scattered showers in the Upper-Hudson Valley and portions of western New England. Anticipated breaks of sun, especially in valley areas will allow temperatures to moderate back to the 60s and 70s with some upper 50s expected above 1500 ft.

By tomorrow night, an upper-level ridge will be building in from the west. The amplification of this ridge through Friday will ensure a dry end of the work week with a continuation to above- normal temperatures. Highs Friday will primarily be in the upper 60s with pockets of low 60s at higher elevations and near 70 in valley areas after the cool boundary cools things off slightly.

The axis of the ridge will begin to shift eastward Friday night into Saturday morning as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. Showers look to begin as early as Saturday evening as a surface low tracks towards into the Ohio Valley. Showers will overspread the region from northwest to southeast as upper troughing also pushes eastward into the region. Highs Saturday will be similar to Friday with 60s expected across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level disturbance and surface boundary will be running into the ridge in place for Saturday night into Sunday. As a result, a period of rain showers and cloudy conditions look to occur for Sat night into Sunday (mainly early in the day, based on the latest operational runs). Have gone with fairly high POPs during this time period for the entire area (high chance to likely). Can't rule out some rumbles of thunder across southern areas too, although strong storms are not expected due to limited instability and most of the thunderstorm activity being elevated. Temps will be in the 40s on Sat night and only in the 50s on Sunday with plenty of clouds around.

Some clearing should occur by Monday with ridging building back into the area for early next week. As a result, skies should be partly to mostly sunny for both Monday and Tuesday with valley highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another chance for showers may return for Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next system approaches from the west. Temps will continue to be fairly seasonable to somewhat above normal. Because of this, no frost/freeze issues are anticipated through the long term period for locations where the growing season has already begun.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low stratus from the morning has finally burned off at all the terminals. VFR ceilings will prevail the rest of the day with breaks of sun.

VFR conditions continue this evening before southerly winds ahead of a warm front advect in marine moisture from the Atlantic. This will result in MVFR conditions returning to PSF and POU by 05 - 08 UTC. ALB and GFL will also see a return to MVFR ceilings a few hours later arriving closer to 08 - 12 UTC.
There is potential for IFR ceilings at POU and PSF mainly from 07 - 13 UTC as low-level moisture collects beneath the low-level inversion. Once the associated cold front sweeps through the region from west to east by 15 - 18 UTC, MVFR and IFR ceilings will quickly improve to VFR. Given PSF is the furthest east, it likely will be the last to see improvements.

Westerly winds this afternoon sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to 15kts will weaken after sunset becoming southerly and sustained around 5kts or less. Southerly winds gradually shift south- southwest early tomorrow before veering to the west-northwest and becoming gusty as a cold front sweeps through the region.
Winds become sustained 5 to 12kts and gusts up to 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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New Baltimore
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Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 AM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:00 AM EDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:29 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
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New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:17 AM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:46 PM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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