Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ravena, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Messages:

- The Storm Prediction Center continues a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly north and west of the Capital District this afternoon into this evening with damaging winds (15-29% chance) the primary hazard.

Discussion:

Abundant sunshine combined with a strengthening southerly wind in response to a tightening pressure gradient has allowed temperatures to become quite warm with many already in the low to mid 70s. Southerly winds remain gusty this afternoon with southerly winds gusting up to 30 mph at times, especially within the Hudson Valley, where winds will be locally channeled. The southerly flow will help increase the low-level moisture as well. The southerly wind will also advect low-level moisture into the Northeast with dew points steadily rise into the 50s this afternoon.

Upstream, we continue to monitor a potent positively tilted shortwave trough tracking through the Great Lakes with its impressive southwesterly low and mid-level jet ahead of it extending into the Ohio Valley and western NY/PA with mid-level winds impressively ranging 50-65kts. As this conveyor belt of strong winds slides north and eastward this afternoon and the stronger height falls ahead of the trough spread into the Northeast where there has been plenty of sun/warm temperatures thus far, cloud coverage will increase and we likely will see additional convective initiation. A pre-frontal trough pushing eastward downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario will focus and organize the convection into line segments with the incoming jet enhancing the low and mid-level shear further. Latest high res guidance continues to show the line segments and eventual QLCS tracking into western NY this afternoon before eventually pressing eastward. Given how far north/west the best forcing is displaced with respect to our area, CAMs have trended later with the arrival time of the line segments/QLCS and now indicate storms hold off until 3-5 PM even in the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley and closer to 7-9 PM in the Upper Hudson Valley and Capital District. Despite daytime heating and increasing dew points this P.M, forecast soundings continue to show a mid-level cap limiting surface based instability until the stronger height falls arrive later this afternoon which should erode it away. Given steep mid-level rates 6-7C/km, once the cap erodes surface based instability should generate but it appears quite low given the late timing. Values are generally under 1000 J/kg and mainly reserved to areas north/west of the Capital District. On the other hand, deep layer shear will be very impressive with 0-3km shear values easily 40-50kts.
Therefore, despite limited updraft heights from lower instability, the highly favorable low-level shear values can still maintain organized convection through sunset. Damaging winds from any severe storms will be the primary hazard but a quick spin-up tornado along the QLCS cannot be ruled out given favorable shear profiles and curved hodographs. After sunset, storms should quickly weaken as we continue to lose instability.
Severe weather is unlikely (less than 20%) for areas south/east of the Capital District.

Even as thunderstorms diminish this evening, areas of rain showers will likely continue along and ahead of the main cold front before it clears our area by or shortly after Midnight.
Overall QPF amounts range from 0.15 - 0.30" with locally higher amounts from thunderstorms reaching up to 1" (especially in the western/southern Adirondacks). Lower rainfall amounts 0.10 - 0.25" for areas south/east of Albany.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will move in for the late night hours, with much cooler temperatures expected by daybreak. Lows will range from the mid 30s in the Adirondacks to the mid 50s in Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, where the front will be crossing later in the overnight. In addition, winds turn breezy behind the boundary tonight with sustained winds 10-15mph and gusts reaching up to 25mph (strongest down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into western New England).

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Drier and more comfortable weather is expected on Wednesday. Any morning clouds will be departing, allowing for a mostly sunny sky by afternoon. It will be somewhat breezy in the morning due to a lingering pressure gradient with winds gradually decreasing by later in the day. While high terrain areas will only top out in the 50s, it still should reach into the 60s for valley areas.

With high pressure overhead, chilly and quiet weather is expected for Wednesday night with a mostly clear sky. Some patchy frost may develop across parts of the Upper Hudson Valley, with the growing season beginning on Thursday morning.
Temps will range from the upper 20s in the Adirondacks to the lower 40s in the mid Hudson Valley.

It will remain dry for much of Thursday, although clouds will be increasing ahead of the next storm system. Highs will mainly be in the 60s. As a warm front approaches the area, some showers are expected on Thursday night, with the highest POPs for western and northern areas. Precipitation generally looks fairly light and temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message:

- Showers likely Friday afternoon along with some thunderstorms.

Discussion:

A warm front lifts north of the region Friday morning placing our region within the warm sector of a low pressure system tracking northeastward into Quebec. Showers and thunderstorms will develop within the warm/humid air mass, aided by a passing upper level shortwave/prefrontal trough, during the afternoon and evening hours.
Highs Friday are expected to reach the 70s to near 80 with some upper 60s across the higher elevations. A deep upper level trough then approaches the region to start next weekend which may induce another developing surface low along the passing cold front which may track near or up the East Coast. Forcing for ascent could result in another period of rain for much of the area Saturday. Saturday would not be as warm with highs only in the 50s and 60s. High pressure attempts to nose in for Sunday and Monday bringing the return of drier weather with highs both days remaining in the 50s and 60s. The upper level pattern becomes more uncertain by early next week, however, with solutions varying from the upper trough from the weekend closing off and meandering nearby or fully departing out to sea with ridging building in.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z Wednesday...As of 1:00 PM EDT, flying conditions remain VFR with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds. This should remain the case until this evening, when a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to track across the region. Timing may still need to be narrowed down with subsequent TAF updates, but at this time it looks like the line arrives at GFL/ALB around 23-01z and POU/PSF 02-03z. Will continue mention of thunder at ALB/GFL, but will leave it out at POU/PSF as the line will continue to weaken the further south and east it tracks. Nevertheless, MVFR to IFR vsbys expected within the line of showers/storms, with MVFR cigs also possible. Showers linger through 04-06z before ending. There could be some SCT to BKN clouds between 2000 - 3000 ft for a couple hours after the showers end and before a cold front tracks through the region. Behind the front, low clouds should dissipate at ALB/GFL/POU but may linger at PSF until mid-morning tomorrow. Once the lower clouds dissipate, VFR conditions should prevail through the end of the TAF period with clearing skies.

Winds this afternoon and early evening will be from the S/SE at 10- 15 kt with gusts as high as 25-30 kt. Gusts diminish after sunset, except within any thunderstorms strong gusty winds will remain possible. A brief lull in winds is expected through 7-9z, then winds abruptly switch to the W/NW behind a cold front and increase to 10- 15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Winds remains gusty through the end of the TAF period tomorrow. Have also included LLWS at ALB/POU/PSF for a few hours this evening into early tonight with a southwesterly low- level jet strengthening to 40-50 kt after sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
A southerly flow will be in place today ahead of an approaching cold front. RH values will be as low as 30 to 40 percent early this afternoon, although low level moisture will be increasing ahead of the boundary. Southerly winds may gust 20 to 30 mph at times today, especially within the larger north-south valleys.
Some showers and thunderstorms are possible late today into this evening, especially for areas north and west of the Capital Region, where rainfall amounts may exceed a third of an inch.
With the expected gusty winds and lower RH during a portion of the day, a Special Weather Statement is in effect for Berkshire and Litchfield Counties for an elevated risk for fire spread for today.

Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air will return for Wednesday. RH values will be as low as 25 to 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts in the morning but will be lowering by the afternoon hours. Depending on the conditions of fuels, a localized enhancement for elevated risk fire spread could occur in some areas on Wednesday. The next chance for rainfall will be Thursday night into Friday.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.